(FREE) 22/23 Week 24 Potential Shutdowns and Pickups
This is not a traditional pickup list. Today, I am going to do something a little different. I will be going through all 30 teams and discussing who may get a rest day or two during Week 24 and who would benefit from those rest days. This is not meant to be a complete list. If your league plays to the buzzer, you need to be on the lookout for surprise starts. There are always a few 12th-men/G League call-ups that post goofy lines during the final week of the season.
Atlanta Hawks
Shutdown/Rest Odds: Minimal. The Hawks will need to play all of their regulars until the final day of the season to end up in the 7/8 play-in instead of the 9/10 play-in.
Players to Watch
Saddiq Bey – Would be in line for a huge usage night if the Hawks end up having a game or two that means nothing. Would have 20+ point and 3+ 3PM in a featured role.
Onyeka Okongwu – Early-round upside anytime Capela sits.
A.J. Griffin – Producing 16.4 PP36 and 2.5 3P36 this year. Upside in both categories would be significant on a night without the starting backcourt, Hunter, and Bogdanovic.
Boston Celtics
Shutdown/Rest Odds: High. The Celtics are a long shot to steal the one-seed away from the Bucks. They are resting some of their starters tonight and should do so once again during their back-to-back set that starts next Tuesday. The rests will likely come on Wednesday against the Raptors. We should also see the Celtics roll with their third-stringers on the final day of the season.
Players to Watch
Sam Hauser – An elite threes option when placed in a significant role. Producing an 3.8 3P36 this year.
Luke Kornet – Horford and Williams are very likely to get multiple games off next week. Kornet has a category-league-friendly game and would be a good bet for solid numbers in all of the big man categories, especially blocks (2.2 BP36), on a big-minute night.
Mike Muscala – A good bet for three or more triples anytime he’s seeing 25+ minutes.
Brooklyn Nets
Shutdown/Rest Odds: Minimal. The Nets are 1.5 games up on the Heat for the final guaranteed playoff spot and will need to play all of their top options until the buzzer to lock in that spot.
Players to Watch
Day’Ron Sharpe – Too risky of a gamble when Claxton is active, but an elite big man categories streamer when the starting center is out. Producing 15.0 PP36 on 54.6 FG%, 13.0 RP36, and 2.3 BP36.
Seth Curry – Showed earlier in the season that he can still get you an efficient 15 points and 2.5 3PG on nights when he’s given an expanded role.
Charlotte Hornets
Shutdown/Rest Odds: High. Rozier and Hayward are almost certainly done. Oubre feels like a long shot to play again as well. Dennis Smith Jr. seems like he has a chance to play again. PJ Washington should be safe with the Hornets unable to move up or down in the standings.
Players to Watch
Svi Mykhailiuk – Already worth an add. Current role is safe due to the shutdowns. Has managed 12.7 PPG, 2.0 3PG, 4.7 APG, and 1.7 SPG since entering the starting lineup three games ago.
Theo Maledon – A high-upside play if Smith is done. Has averaged 15.0 PPG, 1.5 3PG, 8.5 APG, and 1.5 SPG in his two starts this year.
Nick Richards – For next Tuesday only. That will be the one game next week where Mark Williams sits and Richards starts. Averaging 10.0 PPG on 66.0 FG%, 10.4 RPG, and 1.5 BPG as a starter.
Chicago Bulls
Shutdown/Rest Odds: Low-to-moderate. The Bulls are extremely likely to be the ten-seed. Once the 7/8 play-in is out of reach, expect a rest day or two for LaVine, DeRozan, and Vucevic.
Players to Watch
Coby White – Already worth considering in 12-team leagues and would be a major source of points, threes, and dimes on a night when the top three are resting. Has averaged 14.0 PPG, 2.5 3PG, and 7.3 APG in 27.9 MPG over his last four.
Patrick Williams – Out of favor at the moment, but on a night without the stars, he’ll be a good bet for double-digit points, a three or two, a steal, and a block.
Cleveland Cavaliers
Shutdown/Rest Odds: Moderate. The Cavaliers are locked into the four-seed and will be able to give their starters a rest day or two next week.
Players to Watch
Caris LeVert – You know the deal with LeVert. He’s an auto-grab anytime one of the starting guards sit.
Cedi Osman – Inconsistent but can be explosive in the scoring categories when given heavy run and usage.
Dallas Mavericks
Shutdown/Rest Odds: Moderate. The Mavericks have zero room for error. They are a game back of the Thunder for the final play-in spot and do not own the tiebreaker with OKC. That means that over the final five games of the season, they need to pick up two games on the Thunder. If they lose one of their two remaining games this week, the Mavericks could be out of it by the middle of Week 24.
Players to Watch
Christian Wood – Likely being dropped right now due to his minutes cratering with both stars healthy. Could drop an early-round line or two late next week if things go south for Dallas over the next few days.
Jaden Hardy – A must if both guards sit. Has averaged 24.0 PPG on 36.5 FG%, 3.7 3PG, 5.3 RPG, 3.3 APG, and 0.7 SPG in his three starts this season.
Denver Nuggets
Shutdown/Rest Odds: Moderate. The Nuggets have the West wrapped up and don’t have a realistic shot of catching the Celtics or Bucks and locking in homecourt advantage throughout the playoffs. Don’t expect the regulars to play in the final game of the regular season. Whether or not we get additional sits is hard to say. The Nuggets don’t have much to play for, but Nikola Jokic does with the MVP race coming down to the wire.
Players to Watch
Bruce Brown – Will be a rest candidate himself, but worth keeping an eye on since he’d have early-round potential on a night when both Murray and Jokic sit.
Thomas Bryant – Won’t be useful on nights when Jokic sits and the other starters are active, but on nights when it’s just the bench, he’ll have early-round upside.
Detroit Pistons
Shutdown/Rest Odds: Low. The Pistons are a lock to finish with the worst record in the NBA and have already shut down all of their veterans except for Cory Joseph who is a Casey favorite.
Players to Watch
None – The three bigs are already all worth considering. None of the bench guards will explode if Ivey’s or Hayes’ season ends early.
Golden State Warriors
Shutdown/Rest Odds: Minimal. The Warriors will be fighting to stay out of the play-in until the final day of the season.
Players to Watch
Donte DiVincenzo – A drop for now, but will be a must-add if the starting backcourt gets a night or two off.
Jonathan Kuminga – Same deal as Kuminga. Stay away for now, but add if Curry, Green, and Thompson get a night off. Big upside in points.
Gary Payton – Could be an elite steals streamer for a game or two next week.
Houston Rockets
Shutdown/Rest Odds: Low. The Rockets don’t have any veterans to shut down and have already maximized their Wemby odds.
Players to Watch
Josh Christopher – Unlikely that anyone is useful next week outside of the starters and Eason, but Christopher is the best bet of the end-of-rotation options. Could be a nice source of points (17.3 PP36) and steals (1.4 SP36) if the Rockets decide to give him an extended look.
Indiana Pacers
Shutdown/Rest Odds: High. Haliburton and Turner are done. Hield is the big question mark. He is returning tonight after a two-game absence due to an illness.
Players to Watch
Isaiah Jackson – A must-add with Turner done. Could swing championships this week and next week due to his upside in swats.
Jalen Smith – Jackson is the priority add, but Smith could be useful for his points, rebounds, and blocks, especially in 14-team leagues.
T.J. McConnell – Should be rostered with Haliburton done, but not a lock to be more than a back-end assists streamer type. The Pacers have been leaning on their younger guards more the last couple of games.
Aaron Nesmith – Should get around 28 MPG the rest of the way. That should be enough to get the points into the low-to-mid-teens and threes to around two a night.
Andrew Nembhard – A must-roster. Has been getting more run than McConnell lately. Could be a 14 and 7 guy with solid threes and steals the rest of the way.
Jordan Nwora – Worth considering already. Has looked very good whenever he has been given big minutes. Has averaged 21.3 PPG, 3.0 3PG, and 5.7 RPG since his minutes jumped three games ago.
Los Angeles Clippers
Shutdown/Rest Odds: Low-to-moderate. The Clippers are two games up on the final play-in spot, but they have a tough schedule to finish the year, so they may not be able to give their regulars a rest until the final day of the season. However, if things do break their way this week and early next week, we could get some shenanigans late next week, as dropping to the sixth spot would make their path to the WCF much easier.
Players to Watch
Robert Covington – Is expected to have a larger role going forward with Marcus Morris’ role being reduced. Exploded for a first-round line against Memphis on Wednesday. A little risky, but should get heavy run on Saturday against the Pelicans and during next week’s back-to-back set.
Bones Hyland – Like Covington, Bones is risky when Kawhi is active and a high-upside option when the superstar sits. Has averaged 16.8 PPG on 52.0 FG%, 3.3 3PG, 7.0 APG, and 1.3 SPG since re-entering the rotation four games ago.
Nicolas Batum – Will start at the four going forward. Minutes will be unpredictable but will be a strong threes and defensive categories streamer most nights.
Los Angeles Lakers
Shutdown/Rest Odds: Minimal. The Lakers would like to end up in the 7/8 play-in and in order to do that, they’ll need to play everyone until the buzzer.
Players to Watch
None – Hard to picture how the Lakers will end up with a game that means nothing. Schroder could be useful if his minutes were to jump, but that seems extremely unlikely at this point.
Memphis Grizzlies
Shutdown/Rest Odds: Moderate. The Grizzlies are extremely likely to end up as the two-seed in the West and should be able to give their top options a couple of nights off during the final week of the season. I would expect a rest day for Morant, Jackson, and Bane during the back-to-back set early next week and on the final day of the regular season.
Players to Watch
Tyus Jones – Morant will rest during the back-to-back set the Grizzlies have early next week and likely during the finale at OKC. Jones will be must-start in both. A risky play for any other game since he just got a night off himself.
Luke Kennard – Will play 30+ minutes the next time the Grizzlies rest Morant, Jackson, and Bane. Will have 20+ point and 4+ 3PM upside on that night.
Kenny Lofton Jr. – Has been called up from the G League where he put up huge numbers and won Rookie of the Year. Looked very good in preseason and would have 20 and 10 potential if he were to get a start next week.
Miami Heat
Shutdown/Rest Odds: Low. The Heat are currently 1.5 games back of the Nets for the six-seed. As long as they don’t lose ground to Brooklyn this weekend, they should play their regulars for most, if not all, of next week.
Players to Watch
Max Strus – Minutes are unpredictable right now, but a good bet for heavy run if Jimmy sits. Averaging 14.7 PPG and 2.9 3PG as a starter this year.
Gabe Vincent – Usage could be solid on a no-Jimmy/Herro night. Hard to trust without both being out.
Duncan Robinson – Played ahead of Strus last time out. Not what he used to be, but still producing 3.4 3P36, so he’d be an elite threes stream on a night when the minutes are there.
Milwaukee Bucks
Shutdown/Rest Odds: High. The Bucks will likely lock up the league’s top record sometime over the next few days. I wouldn’t expect to see Giannis, Middleton, or Holiday much next week. Lopez doesn’t rest nearly as much as the team’s other starters and will likely play most of next week’s games.
Players to Watch
Bobby Portis – Should be a standard league player next week. The Bucks have a back-to-back set and the starters are unlikely to play in the finale, so we will probably see Giannis only twice in Week 24.
Jevon Carter – Put up some big lines early in the season when the Bucks were struggling with injuries. Could be a solid threes and steals streamer next week.
Pat Connaughton – Just a minor part of the rotation at the moment, so not an option unless there are mass sits. In a big role, he’d have significant upside in threes and rebounds. A rare combination.
Minnesota Timberwolves
Shutdown/Rest Odds: Minimal. The Wolves are only one game back of the six-seed and only a half-game up on the nine-seed. The final game of the season will likely matter to them.
Players to Watch
None – The odds of the Wolves having a meaningless game are very small and none of their depth options are interesting now that Naz Reid is done for the year.
New Orleans Pelicans
Shutdown/Rest Odds: Minimal. The Pelicans are only one game back of the six-seed and only a half-game up on the nine-seed. The final game of the season will likely matter to them.
Players to Watch
None – Nance, J Rich, and Marshall could all be useful if they were to find themselves in a major role, but the odds of that happening are extremely small with the Pelicans fighting for their life.
New York Knicks
Shutdown/Rest Odds: Low. The Knicks don’t have much to play for, but Thibs isn’t the resting type. I would expect the regulars to play for most of Week 24 and rest during the finale.
Players to Watch
Obi Toppin – Toppin’s minutes will likely get into at least the high-20s with Randle done for the rest of the regular season. Assuming that’s the case, expect points in the low-to-mid-teens, 2.0 3PG, and five or six boards from the third-year man. However, he’s not a must in deeper leagues next week due to the Knicks’ schedule. New York only has three games next week and two of their games come on extremely busy days.
Quentin Grimes – The Knicks will go small more often with Randle out and that should benefit the streaking Grimes. Worth a look if you need points, threes, and dimes, although you’ll need to check if you have room first due to the Knicks’ rough Week 24 schedule.
Oklahoma City Thunder
Shutdown/Rest Odds: Minimal. The Thunder will need to play their regulars the rest of the way if they want to hold onto the final play-in spot. They also have an outside chance of getting into the 7/8 play-in.
Players to Watch
Aleksej Pokusevski – Unlikely to have a role next week, but keep an eye on him because he only needs about 20 minutes to put average a three, a block, and about five boards.
Orlando Magic
Shutdown/Rest Odds: Low. A strong finish could hurt the Magic’s Wemby odds, but they don’t seem too concerned about that at the moment. There hasn’t been any sign that a shutdown is coming for any of their younger players.
Players to Watch
Goga Bitadze/Mo Wagner – The Magic have a back-to-back set late next week that is part of a three-games-in-four night stretch. If we get some rests, they should come then. If Carter Jr. gets a night off, then both Bitadze and Wagner will have mid-round potential for an evening.
Philadelphia 76ers
Shutdown/Rest Odds: Moderate. The Sixers don’t have anything to play for and that means that Harden should get a couple of games off to rest his ailing Achilles. Embiid should play most of the remaining games with the MVP race a toss-up.
Players to Watch
Paul Reed – Reed will be a must-stream if Embiid sits at some point next week. Reed is a monster per-minute producer in the big man categories and comes with an elite steal rate. He is currently producing 13.0 PP36 on 59.2 FG%, 12.3 RP36, 2.2 SP36, and 2.4 BP36. The last time Reed played more than 20 minutes, he put up 16 points, 14 rebounds, and two blocks.
Jalen McDaniels – Played like a mid-round player when he was getting consistent run with the Hornets. Could give you a well-rounded top-100 line on a night when the starters are sitting.
De’Anthony Melton – An obvious grab if Harden and Embiid are rested next week.
Phoenix Suns
Shutdown/Rest Odds: Low-to-moderate. The Suns are only a half-game up on the Clippers for homecourt in the first round and will be looking to develop some chemistry with Durant before the playoffs start. However, with a back-to-back set on the schedule late in Week 24, it’s possible that the starters play in only one of the final three games of the season.
Players to Watch
Bismack Biyombo – An elite big man categories streamer if Ayton sits. Averaging 7.6 PPG on 59.7 FG%, 6.8 RPG, and 2.6 BPG as a starter this year.
T.J. Warren – Per-minute numbers have been solid this year. Would be a good bet for points in the mid-teens, a three, and five boards in a no-Durant/Booker game.
Terrence Ross – Upside in points and threes would be significant on a no-Durant/Booker night.
Cam Payne – Would likely score in the mid-teens while giving you two threes and six dimes if he gets a start next week.
Portland Trail Blazers
Shutdown/Rest Odds: Who else is there to shut down? Kevin Knox?
Players to Watch
Kevin Knox – Has scored in double-digits three games in a row and has averaged 7.3 RPG over that stretch. Should have a big role next week with the Blazers running low on bodies.
Nassir Little – More of a deep league option, but the minutes should be there next week. Played 40 minutes in the Blazers’ 40-point loss to the Kings on Wednesday.
John Butler – An undrafted big on a two-way that had a flashy block rate in his only year at Florida State. Played 26 minutes against the Kings last time out. Could be a solid deep league swats streamer.
Sacramento Kings
Shutdown/Rest Odds: Moderate. The Kings are extremely likely to end up as the three-seed in the West. They will be able to give their starters a couple of days off next week if they want to.
Players to Watch
Malik Monk – A no-brainer add if the starting wings get a night off.
Terence Davis – Can be extremely explosive and has posted early-round lines in the past. Has averaged 13.0 PPG on 42.9 FG%, 2.8 3PG, 4.5 RPG, 2.5 APG, and 1.0 SPG in four starts this season.
Richaun Holmes – Remember him? Has barely played this year but he did drop 16 and 11 in his one start this season. Could post a mid-round line if Sabonis and a couple other starters sit.
San Antonio Spurs
Shutdown/Rest Odds: High. Johnson, Vassell, and Collins haven’t been shut down yet, but we will likely only see them once or twice more. Tre Jones looks like he has a shot at playing until the buzzer which is a nice surprise. Jeremy Sochan is probably done.
Players to Watch
Sandro Mamukelashvili – The only Spur we can trust at the moment. Worth adding in all leagues. Has averaged 13.2 PPG on 48.5 FG%, 1,2 3PG, 6.0 RPG, 3.5 APG, 0.5 SPG, and 0.5 BPG over his last six.
Keita Bates-Diop – Has scored in double-digits in four of his last five. Over that stretch, he’s averaged 12.6 PPG on 48.8 FG%, 1.6 3PG, 4.2 RPG, and 0.6 SPG.
Devonte’ Graham – Hard to trust, but has played three games in a row. A high-upside streaming option for those in need of points, threes, and assists.
Malaki Branham – Worth streaming if you need points. Stay away if you don’t. Offers little outside of points. Has averaged 17.0 PPG, 1.3 3PG, 3.3 RPG, 1.0 APG, and 0.3 SPG over his last three.
Toronto Raptors
Shutdown/Rest Odds: Minimal. The Raptors will need to play all of their regulars until the final day of the season to end up in the 7/8 play-in instead of the 9/10 play-in.
Players to Watch
None – The Raptors are unlikely to have any meaningless games and with Gary Trent likely back by next week, Chris Boucher and Precious Achiuwa will lose what little value they had.
Utah Jazz
Shutdown/Rest Odds: Moderate-to-high. The Jazz haven’t been eliminated from the play-in race just yet, but they will be soon. I would not expect to see a lot of Markkanen next week and Olynyk could be shut down early as well. Sexton and Clarkson are done.
Players to Watch
Kris Dunn – Has slowed down quite a bit, but his upside will be higher than usual next week if Olynyk sits. Expect to see Dunn’s assist rate increase in that scenario. Olynyk has been taking away creation duties from the point guard as of late.
Ochai Agbaji – Not an exciting option due to his weak numbers in the non-scoring categories, but should end up as a 15 PPG and 3.0 3PG if/when Lauri is shut down.
Luka Samanic – Someone for deep league managers to keep an eye on. Played 25 minutes when Olynyk sat on Wednesday. Could be a 12 and 6 guy who can hit from deep if he gets that kind of run next week.
Washington Wizards
Shutdown/Rest Odds: Moderate-to-high. The Wizards are two back of the Bulls for the final play-in spot, but since they do not own the tiebreak with Chicago, they are really three games back with six to go. That means that they are likely to be eliminated early next week. Beal and Kuzma are done. Porzinigis is likely to rest once the elimination becomes official.
Players to Watch
Delon Wright – Has a good shot at starting and playing around 30 minutes the rest of the way. Should be produce around five assists and two steals in that role.
Daniel Gafford – Will get extra run once Porzingis is shut down. A mid-round player when given minutes in the high-20s.
Corey Kispert – Ceiling in points and threes increases with all of the top options down. Should score in the mid-teens and average about 3.0 3PG next week.
Deni Avdija – Should already be rostered. Ceiling will be significant next week with Porzingis potentially done.