You likely won’t win or lose your league when you make your second-round pick. However, that doesn’t mean pairing isn’t important. Not every second-round pick fits well with every first-round pick, and a less-than-ideal pairing can get you into trouble. Pairing is an extension of category scarcity, which we all agree is an important factor to take into consideration on draft day. When you make your second-round pick, you need to be thinking about not only that player’s outlook, but how that pick is going to impact your options over the next few rounds. There will be a butterfly effect that your second-round pick creates. Some picks may lead you down a path that contains many quality options, while others will take options off the board that you may not want to take off the board. Pairing becomes even more essential when you punt in H2H leagues. Each punting strategy comes with strengths and weaknesses that should be taken into consideration when we decide on our second-round pick. For example, the categories we need to target aggressively when we punt FT% are much different than the categories we need to target early when we punt FG%. If we try to punt without regard to the natural strengths and weaknesses of our builds, we may find ourselves in a situation during the second half of the draft where the categories we need are not available.
Attempting to draft the best available player without regard for fit at each pick can work, but it is an approach that comes with a lower floor. For one, it’s difficult to identify the BAP at every point in the draft. Last season, once Tyrese Maxey and Donovan Mitchell came off the board, often inside the top 15, the BAP from that point until the end of the second round was Scottie Barnes. Was that obvious at the time? No. Barnes had an ADP of 25 last year. Only focusing on taking the BAP at each pick can also lead to lopsided teams that are stronger than they need to be in some categories and weaker than they should be in others. We’ve all been in leagues with teams that look very good on paper, but end up underachieving. Often, that’s due to a funky fit. Drafting only for BAP is especially risky in leagues where trades are rare. If you end up too strong in a category or two, and weaker than you should be in a must-win category or two, it will be tough to fix that imbalance.
If you are taking fit into consideration, nailing the BAP at each pick won’t be nearly as important. Focusing on fit (in addition to a player’s upside, floor, and all the other factors we take into account when we draft) makes it more likely you come away from the draft strong in the categories you need to be strong in and with a team that isn’t wasting value. A good fit can also make blown picks hurt less. And let’s be honest. We are going to blow a pick or two on draft day. If you never blow a pick, then stop reading this and go apply to be an NBA GM. You are probably the next Sam Presti. If a player underachieves, that’s not ideal, but as long as that player is producing the TYPE of line we need, the hit won’t be too painful.
Below are some first- and second-round pairings that complement each other well. I’ve broken them down by first-round pick and punting strategy. I’ve also included a breakdown of where you will stand after the second round if you start with one of the pairings below. That will make it easier to figure out which categories you need to focus on during the subsequent rounds.
I’ve compared each pairing’s projected numbers to the projected average numbers of the 24 players I think will make up the first two rounds of most competitive 12-team drafts. There are a few players on this list who have the potential to fall into the third, but at least 20 of these players will be off the board by the end of the second in the majority of standard league drafts.
The players that I have included in these calculations are: Nikola Jokic, Victor Wembanyama, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Luka Doncic, Cade Cunningham, Tyrese Maxey, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jayson Tatum, Donovan Mitchell, Anthony Edwards, Tyrese Haliburton, Cooper Flagg, Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant, Jamal Murray, Austin Reaves, Jalen Johnson, Scottie Barnes, Karl-Anthony Towns, Kawhi Leonard, Anthony Davis, Chet Holmgren, Jalen Brunson, Trae Young, Alperen Sengun
Average Projected Numbers of the likely Top-24 Players: 24.3 PPG, 2.3 3PG, 7.0 RPG, 6.0 APG, 1.2 SPG, 0.9 BPG, 49.6 FG%, 82.1 FT%, 2.7 TOPG
Victor Wembanyama (Pick 1-3)
Punt FG%
Victor Wembanyama/Trae Young
Above average in Threes, Assists, Blocks
Average in Points, Rebounds
Below average in Steals, Turnovers
2026-2027 Pairing Guide – Part 1
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