26/27 Main League Draft Results and Strategy Discussion

I had one of my main league drafts yesterday. I got stuck with the 11th pick in a 3RR 12-team nine-category H2H league. It’s not a terrible place to be due to the 3RR, but it does require you to get creative.

Going in, I was debating between three approaches. A guard/guard start. Something like Don Mitch and Reaves. Maybe Ant if he fell. Those two and Murray are all pretty interchangeable. I was also looking at Johnson + an elite guard and Flagg + an elite guard. Flagg went 8. I opted for the Johnson + elite guard approach over the double-guard start because I thought it would give me more options with my round three, four, and five picks. It’s very well-balanced, so I could go in a bunch of different directions. I like the guard/guard option, but with the 3RR, I’d be almost forced to go big in 3, with my next pick not being until 47. I think in normal 12-snake drafts, you can start small-small-small from the end of the first since there will be good bigs available in the late 30s.

Here is my team and thought process at each pick:

1) Johnson – I don’t love Johnson in the first, but I don’t love anyone in that range. After Tatum is gone, it’s all a bunch of guys who feel like second-round picks in a normal year. It’s just a weird year, where the options at 5-12 are weaker than usual. However, when putting together my sample teams and guides, I always found Johnson pretty easy to build around. Getting assists without taking a rebounds hit gives you a lot of flexibility. I like Don Mitch a little more in a bubble, but I view him as pretty similar to Reaves and Murray, so I took Johnson first with the hope that Mitchell would fall to 14. That way, I was guaranteed to get a nice mix of big man and guard stats early. Mitchell went 12th, which was fine with me. That two-game schedule makes me a little nervous, and it would have made it tougher to take a big swing in three like I was planning to.

2) Reaves – I love Reaves this year. He could be a first-round player on a per-game basis, and he gives you everything you could ask for from an early-round guard.

3) Kawhi – So this is when the draft got spicy. I was planning on going risky here with Kawhi if I started Johnson/guard or Flagg/guard, and I would have opted for AD if I had started guard-guard. I made that decision shortly after we did the draft order. It was influenced by who got the top three picks. Two of the top three are very good, and the other manager up there is solid as well. I knew they were going to put good teams around the elite options. After seeing that, I didn’t think I could play it safe and come out of the draft with more than a borderline top-three team. In general, I think that is how you have to approach snake drafts where you have a late pick. You have to take at least one or two big swings to make up the per-game gap between whoever you pick and Jokic and friends. I’m very comfortable with Kawhi in three. Yes, he’s injury-prone, but he’s also been healthy in March in four straight seasons. He’s also played 65+ games in two of his last three seasons. There will be some rest days, but when healthy, he’s probably going to be the fifth most valuable player in category leagues. Most of your opponents are taking top-30ish players in the third. Johnson, Reaves, and Kawhi is a super strong per-game start and a perfect start for the punt blocks build, which I was leaning toward at this point. Full disclosure: Me being a Raps fan also factored into this a bit. I wanted at least one Kawhi share this year.

4) Davis – I am not a fan of stacking injury-prone guys. This was not the plan at all. Usually, in this league, the injury risks fall, so I expected Davis to go a little later than he probably should, but I didn’t expect him to be available at the end of the fourth. I was frantically checking the Draft Tracker for an alternative option that I was happy with, but nothing popped up. I couldn’t say no at this price. Again, you have to take some swings when you pick late. I just may have taken too big a cut. Time will tell. After his pick, I was joking in the draft chat that I was -110 to win the league and -110 to miss the playoffs.

5) NAW – I had zero time to think about this pick. I was a little on tilt after the Davis pick, and the guy on the turn made his two picks in about 10 seconds. I wasn’t thinking about fit at this point. All that was going through my head was “who is the safest player here?” NAW is pretty safe from both a role and a health standpoint. Usually, at this point, I’m locking into a punting build. The AD pick threw me for a loop, though. My original plan was something like Johnson/Reaves/Kawhi/Franz/Okongwu. Kawhi + pretty safe guys. Nothing fancy and a great start for punt blocks. My top five isn’t bad at anything, so the plan was to try to play it fairly safe over the next few picks and see where I end up. I didn’t want to force any punts, even though in 90% of my drafts, I have a good idea of what direction I am going in after round five.

6) Reid – There is always a big man run in round six, so I wasn’t sure what big I was going to get. Usually, I like getting Jarrett Allen in this range because he’s so steady and because I find his massive FG% boost very useful. He didn’t fall, which wasn’t a surprise. Most of the league subscribers to my site, so a lot of the time, the guys I like go above their ADP. Zubac and Ware went as well, so I opted for Reid. I would have liked more FG% impact in this spot, but I wasn’t too worried about it because of the bigs I knew I would be chasing later.

7) Jerome – Jerome is my guy this year, so I was happy to get him at the beginning of the seventh after some of my other favorite targets this year went earlier than expected. I would have taken him in six, but I couldn’t risk not grabbing a big there. I go after him regardless of build. If he pops (and he probably will), he can match or outplay a mid-round draft price in any setup. At this point, my team was set up nicely for punt FG%, but I didn’t want to go there because a lot of my favorite later-round picks are good FG% guys.

8) Murray-Boyles – In competitive leagues, I think you have to take CMB inside the top 100 now. His preseason was just way too good to keep him in flier territory. That’s not an issue. He should play around 27 MPG. He should be a mid-round guy in that range. My team is a hair below average in dimes at this point and average or better everywhere else.

9) Podziemski – Podz is another guy I’ve been going after in drafts and mocks. Jerome/CMB/Podz is a pretty standard 7/8/9 for me. I hadn’t seen the Steph rest days quote from Kerr at this point. I was going after Podz aggressively either way. I have a really hard time seeing him bust if he’s healthy. Someone has to take the shots Curry doesn’t. It sounds like there will be a bunch of nights this year where he is the first option too.

10) Myles Turner – Turner is close to an automatic pick for me in this range due to his upside. I love that last-minute drop in the rankings from Yahoo. Zero downside, lots of upside at this price. Even if he plays like he did last year, he’ll be worth a pick in this range. I do think he could improve. He probably hasn’t fallen off a cliff as a player. It’s possible he was just a bad fit for Doc’s system. He may not be a better fit in Jenkins’, but the coach/system change does make a bounceback more likely. I needed another shot blocker, but that wasn’t why I made this pick. I’m just chasing upside at this point in the draft.

11) VanVleet – Same thought process as Turner. Maybe he is semi-cooked (although he hasn’t looked like it in preseason), but at this price, there is no downside to betting on FVV still being pretty good. If you look at the players ranked around VanVleet, it’s mostly low-upside options that could be droppable in two weeks. This was a pick that moved me down in the projected standings due to the FG% hit that accompanies Fred, but that is not something I was worried about. If VanVleet hits, I shouldn’t have any issue moving him for a better fit who went multiple rounds ahead of him in the draft.

12) Isaiah Jackson – Another upside pick. I think he will be the Clippers’ primary five at least until Yanic is back. He could be the main guy all year too. Yanic is coming off a pretty big injury and has played more than 20 minutes in a game only six times in his career. YNK had some nice flashes last year, but he is a pretty big unknown. Jackson was much more productive on a per-minute basis after the move to LA last year. His block rate went through the roof. He’s not a sure thing, but at this price, you are not getting sure things. Jackson has a lot more upside than most players in his range. He is a no-brainer late-round target for any team in need of a center.

13) Jalen Smith – Smith is just a short-term play. I don’t think he is going to supplant Claxton. I wanted a short-term guy in this spot. I don’t think I’m going to be dropping Jackson or FVV early if they struggle. I plan on giving both guys some time. Smith should be good early, but he is not someone I’m going to hesitate to cut when the first big free agent pops up.

As you’d expect from a Kawhi/AD squad, this team doesn’t have any per-game weaknesses. It’s average-ish in assists and FG%, and strong everywhere else.

I plan on making some fairly significant changes, though. Since I’m depending on two injury-prone players, I don’t love being just above average in a bunch of categories. My rebounds and blocks are great, but everything else is just very good instead of dominant.

I want to be dominant in more categories, so that during the stretches when one of Kawhi or AD is out, I can still win my go-to categories consistently. I don’t like going with a balanced approach because one big injury (which will happen to everyone’s team) can take you from above average in a bunch of categories to average or below. If you are punting, you may still be able to win a handful of categories consistently when you are beat up.

I’m leaning toward punting assists. Of my first ten picks, only Johnson is a bad fit for that build. I’ve been talking with Tatum managers (JT went at 10) about a swap. I might do JJ + another piece. That would put me in a pretty great spot in points, threes, FT%, and turnovers. My boards would take a hit, but would still be good. FG% would be a problem, but that is a category that punt assists teams can usually fix during the regular season. If that doesn’t work out, I’ll see how the first couple of weeks go and reassess.

This is not my normal approach to drafting. Usually, I am somewhat risk-averse, and I like to lean into punts. AD in four is just such an unusual situation. I couldn’t say no at that point. Even in 3, he is very good, but I have seen him in four in a lot of mocks. Be ready for him and the other injury-prone players to drop. Make your decision about whether or not to grab those guys if they fall prior to the draft. That way, you can map out your strategy for the following rounds if they do.

After seeing the projected standings, I was happy I took some swings. Elite Fantasy Basketball’s Draft Tracker has me first, and teams that picked 1, 2, 3 in second, third, and fourth. It doesn’t look like any of the top options are going to be wasted this year. Maybe the risky picks will come back to bite me, but at least now I know I can compete with the teams built around the big boys when my team is fairly healthy.