Below is a pick-by-pick breakdown of this year’s draft class. Right now, at least from a fantasy standpoint, it is shaping up as a top-heavy draft class. Most of the early picks come with interesting fantasy profiles, but there are no obvious potential fantasy studs in the second half of the first round this year like there were last year. If you don’t have an early pick in your dynasty rookie draft, I would consider trading out of the draft. I have also included a list of rookies who should be drafted in re-draft settings, as well as dynasty tiers for this year’s first-round picks.
*The following rankings and comments are for nine-category H2H leagues
1) Victor Wembanyama – From a fantasy standpoint, Wembanyama is the most exciting prospect since Anthony Davis. While it would be a slightly risky move because we don’t know whether or not Wembanyama’s frame can consistently withstand an 82-game schedule, he is viable in dynasty startups as high as pick two. The Spur has a higher ceiling in category leagues than Luka Doncic, Tyrese Haliburton, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. In his prime, Wembanyama should be an elite producer in rebounds and blocks and an above-average contributor in every other category except steals and turnovers. His three-ball is a work in progress but is in good shape for his age, and he is already a plus-passer for his position. It would not be surprising at all if Wembanyama eventually became a 1.5+ 3PG and 4.0+ APG player. The big man has the potential to dominate the fantasy landscape for years. However, his short-term outlook is slightly murky due to the team he plays on. The Spurs are the O.G. of the load management movement and will likely be very careful with their new centerpiece early in his career. They will also be trying to avoid becoming too good, too fast. The Spurs need to surround Wembanyama with other build-chip prospects, and regularly resting Wembanyama or shutting him down late in the season is one of the better ways to ensure that they have a shot at those blue-chip prospects. Games played could be a problem for at least a couple of years.
2) Brandon Miller – Miller is unlikely to be more than a low-end option in his rookie year regardless of what happens with Miles Bridges. The second-overall pick comes with a decent fantasy profile, but not one that is strong enough to make him a top-80 player in his first year in the league. He is unlikely to be a plus-contributor in any category except rebounds and threes as a rookie. At Alabama, Miller produced a very solid 18.8 PPG, 8.2 RPG, and 2.9 3PG, but only 2.1 APG, 0.9 SPG, and 0.9 BPG. His mediocre outlook in the defensive categories has the potential to keep him outside of the top 40 in the long term. It is very difficult to get in that range without contributing useful numbers in at least one of steals or blocks. Miller is a top-five pick in rookie drafts. He should be selected behind Scoot Henderson and the Thompson twins.
3) Scoot Henderson – Scoot is a much more exciting prospect on the court than he is in fantasy. The point guard enters the league with a game that is not a great fit for category leagues. He should be a strong source of points and assists immediately, but everything else in his line is likely to be average or worse early in his career. In the G League, Henderson averaged 16.5 PPG on 42.9 FG% and 76.4 FT%, 0.7 3PG on 27.5 3P%, 5.4 RPG, 6.5 APG, 1.1 SPG, 0.5 BPG, and 3.5 TOPG in 30.7 MPG. As a rookie, Scoot is likely going to be one of those players who is universally rostered due to his name and contributions in the categories fantasy players tend to overvalue but who isn’t particularly useful. Think Jaden Ivey last year or Ja Morant during his first two seasons in the league. Whether or not he can eventually become an early-round player will come down to the development of his jumper. If he is always a below-average threat from deep, his value is likely going to get stuck in the middle rounds, similar to how Morant’s has been stuck in that range up to now. He is the safe choice at two in rookie drafts due to the high chance he becomes a very good real-life player. However, the Thompson twins are higher-upside options due to their games being category-league friendly.
4) Amen Thompson – Amen is an A+ level athlete who enters the league with advanced passing skills and an extremely janky jumper. There is significant upside here due to his athleticism and potential on the defensive end, but the range of outcomes is wide. Thompson with a plus-jumper would likely be an all-star and a monster in fantasy. However, the odds of him developing a reliable shot are not great. His form is very poor at the moment and he struggled from deep in the Overtime Elite league despite playing against weak competition. In the OTE, Thompson averaged only 0.6 3PG on 23.3 percent shooting from three. While his ceiling is hard to predict, his floor is fairly high due to what he can do on the defensive end. In the OTE, he averaged a goofy 2.4 SPG and 0.8 BPG. We should be somewhat skeptical of that number due to the league it was achieved in, but it does look like that elite steal rate is going to carry over to the pros. Amen looked dominant on the defensive end in his lone appearance in summer league, and Ausar, who is a very similar player and athlete, has also been very productive in steals and blocks in his handful of appearances since the draft. Thompson’s defensive contributions and strong creation skills (6.2 APG) give him a good shot at being useful in standard leagues at some point this season. Unfortunately, he likely won’t get enough run early on to be more than a back-end option. Kevin Porter Jr. torpedoing his own career improves Amen’s outlook, but he still has to deal with Fred VanVleet, Jalen Green, and the handful of quality options that the Rockets have at the forward spots. Thompson will likely be stuck in a mid-20s role early in the season. If you plan on targeting him late in re-draft leagues, be prepared to be patient with him. Amen is a reasonable pick as high as two in rookie drafts. He’d be a risky pick there, but he likely does have more upside in category leagues than Scoot Henderson.
5) Ausar Thompson – Ausar is the safer bet of the Thompson twins. He has a clearer path to big minutes in Detroit than Amen does in Houston, and his jumper is in slightly better shape. It will take time for Ausar to develop a reliable three-ball, but he does have better form than Amen and he did trend up from deep as the OTE season moved along. Like Amen, Ausar comes with significant upside in the defensive categories, assists, and on the boards. In the OTE, he produced a very intriguing 16.3 PPG, 6.1 RPG, 7.1 APG, 2.4 SPG, and 1.1 BPG. Given the newness of the Overtime Elite league, it’s hard to know how much weight we can place on the numbers, but based on what we saw in summer league and early in preseason, it seems like he is going to have a game that is very fantasy-friendly at the pro level. He needs to be drafted in all re-draft leagues. It looks like he’s going to start on opening night and would likely be a clear standard league player in a 28+ MPG role, especially in friendly builds like punt FG%, punt points, and punt threes. In rookie drafts, he is a top-five pick with a legitimate argument to go at two behind Wembanyama.
6) Anthony Black – Black enters the league with significant upside in both assists and steals. During his freshman year at Arkansas, the sixth-overall pick produced 3.9 APG and 2.1 SPG. That assist number doesn’t jump off the page, but it’s a good number in college, especially for a freshman. The rest of his line will likely be limited, at least early on in his career. He was a good, but not great rebounder in college (5.1 RPG in 34.9 MPG) despite possessing excellent size and isn’t a major scoring threat yet. Last year, he managed 12.8 PPG on 45.3 FG% and 0.8 3PG on 30.1 3P%. Landing with a team that already has Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner also complicates matters. With two likely future All-Stars on his team, Black may end up as just a secondary creator. If that proves to be the case, his upside is going to be somewhat limited. Don’t expect much from Black this year. With the Magic having plenty of depth in the backcourt, it’s hard to see a path to big minutes that doesn’t involve multiple injuries. He could end up as a quality steals streamer at some point this year, but he’s unlikely to be a clear standard league player at any point.
7) Bilal Coulibaly – Coulibaly is one of this rookie class’ big unknowns. He has great size and is very athletic, but he’s also very raw on the offensive end and hasn’t played a ton of minutes at a top level. In Europe, he was limited early in the season on Victor Wembanyama’s Metropolitans 92. He consistently saw minutes in the 20s over the second half of the year, but he didn’t produce anything too notable outside of steals during that stretch. The Wizards will likely try to develop him as a 3-and-D type of player. As we’ve seen with players like O.G. Anunoby, that can be enough to get a player inside of the top 40. However, there are also plenty of 3-and-D types in the league who never end as more than back-end options in fantasy leagues. There is some upside here due to his physical gifts, but Coulibaly is someone to be careful with in rookie drafts if you are looking to compete over the next couple of years.
8) Jarace Walker – Walker projects to be a strong source of defensive numbers who does good work on the boards and chips in on the offensive end. At Houston, the power forward averaged 11.2 PPG on 46.5 FG% and 66.3 FT%, 1.0 3PG on 34.7 3PG, 6.8 RPG, 1.8 APG, 1.0 SPG, and 1.3 BPG in only 27.6 MPG. Unlike many rookies in this class, Walker does have a solid shot a decent minutes early on. The Pacers are thin at the four with Obi Toppin looking like their opening night power forward. If Walker impresses early, he could find himself in a starting spot sooner rather than later. He doesn’t need to be drafted in standard leagues at the moment, but in deeper re-draft settings, he’s worth considering. In rookie drafts, he’s a solid option starting at pick six.
9) Taylor Hendricks – Hendricks is another contender for the six spot in rookie drafts. His path to big minutes in his rookie year isn’t as clear as Walker’s, but he comes with similar upside. At Central Florida, Hendricks showed the ability to produce big numbers in both threes and blocks. That combination isn’t as rare as it used to be, but it is still a very valuable one. As a freshman at UCF, the forward averaged 15.1 PPG on 47.8 FG%, 1.8 3PG on 39.4 3P%, 7.0 RPG, 1.4 APG, 0.9 SPG, and 1.7 BPG in 34.7 MPG. Landing with the Jazz is both a blessing and a curse for Hendricks. It’s not great for his short-term value because he’ll be stuck behind Lauri Markkanen, John Collins, and Kelly Olynyk this season. However, it’s a solid landing spot for his long-term value. Utah has been very good at developing prospects over the last decade.
10) Cason Wallace – Wallace would be interesting on a lot of the league’s teams. He produced an elite steal rate (2.0 SPG) at Kentucky and did decent work in threes (1.4 3PG on 34.6 3P%) and assists (4.3 APG). Unfortunately, he landed on a team where minutes are going to be very hard to come by. With the Thunder set at both the one and the two, it’s hard to see how Wallace ends up in a major role this year. His future outlook is also hazy due to the backcourt being set and due to all of the Thunder’s picks. OKC has to cash them in soon or they’ll be forced to start selling them off at a discount. If Wallace doesn’t end up looking like a better prospect than Josh Giddey or Jalen Williams, he could be shipped elsewhere. A move like that could be good for his value, but it makes him a very difficult player to project going forward.
11) Jett Howard – Howard is this season’s least interesting lottery pick. He should be drafted well below his real-life draft slot in rookie drafts. He could become a very strong source of threes like he was in college (2.7 3PG on 36.8 3P%), but given what he did at Michigan, it’s hard to see him becoming more than a specialist in fantasy leagues. His contributions outside the scoring categories were extremely limited in his only season with the Wolverines. Last year, Jett managed only 2.8 RPG, 2.0 APG, 0.4 SPG, and 0.7 BPG in 31.8 MPG. In re-draft leagues, he’s safe to ignore. He has no shot at major minutes with the Magic this year and there will always be stronger three-point streamers available on your wire.
12) Dereck Lively – Lively is your classic FG%/rebounds/blocks and not much else big. He has significant upside on the defensive end, but his ceiling on the other end is limited. Very few players come into the league as raw on offense as the former Blue Devil. At Duke, Lively was largely ignored on the offensive end and ended up managing only 5.2 PPG on 65.8 FG% and 60.0 FT%, 0.1 3PG, and 1.1 APG. He’s never going to be a difference-maker on offense, but we do need him to be at least respectable on that end so that his shot attempts are high enough to make what should be an excellent FG% matter. Lively is worth considering in deep re-draft leagues for his rebounds and blocks. With the Mavericks very weak at the five, he could see 20 MPG right out of the gate. That would be enough run to make him a decent contributor in both areas. In college, he averaged 5.4 RPG and a whopping 2.4 BPG despite the limited run. In standard leagues, you will likely have better options late. Due to his non-existent offensive contributions, Lively projects to be more of a blocks streamer in 12-team setups.
13) Gradey Dick – Dick is an elite three-point shooter who has the potential to do a little more in the non-scoring categories than most major threats from deep. The newest Raptor is a good athlete who put up solid numbers on the boards and in the steals column at Kansas while bombing away from deep. As a Jayhawk, Dick averaged 14.1 PPG on 44.2 FG%, 2.3 3PG on 40.3 3P%, 5.1 RPG, and 1.4 SPG in 32.7 MPG. The Raptors are both a good and bad landing spot. It’s good that he landed with a team that has done a quality job developing non-elite prospects, but the Raptors are also a team that doesn’t have a ton of minutes available for him at the moment. He’s likely looking at minutes in the mid-teens to start the year and won’t have a path to a starting spot unless Gary Trent or Dennis Schroder is moved. In rookie drafts, he should be taken around his actual draft slot.
14) Jordan Hawkins – Hawkins is similar to Howard in that he’s going to be threes and absolutely nothing else. There isn’t much to see here, especially with him landing on a Pelicans team that has a ton of depth. During UCONN’s championship run, Hawkins averaged 2.9 3PG on 38.8 percent shooting from deep, but only 16.2 PPG on 40.9 FG%, 3.8 RPG, 1.3 APG, 0.7 SPG, and 0.5 BPG. With threes being so easy to find on the wire and late in drafts, it’s hard to get excited about three-point specialists who do nothing in steals. Let him fall in rookie drafts and target a higher-upside option that was selected outside the lottery.
15) Kobe Bufkin – Bufkin was receiving quite a bit of hype in the lead-up to the draft. However, that hype quickly died down once he was selected by the Hawks, and it took another hit after an ugly summer league stint. Bufkin’s short-term value is limited with the Hawks having a loaded backcourt, but he is still a fairly interesting long-term option. He has quite a bit of upside as a scorer and could be a decent source of threes, assists, and steals down the road. During his second and final year at Michigan, Bufkin averaged 14.0 PPG on a very respectable 48.5 percent shooting from the floor, 1.3 3PG on 35.5 3P%, 4.5 RPG, 2.9 APG, and 1.3 SPG. He is a long shot to be useful this year, but I wouldn’t rule out big minutes in year two. If the Hawks look like a treadmill team again this year—and they likely will—we could get some major changes next summer.
16) Keyonte George – George is another prospect who has a significant amount of upside on the offensive end, but who will likely struggle to lock down decent minutes in his rookie year. The newest member of the Jazz wasn’t an efficient scorer in college (37.6 FG%), but he did show the ability to put up big numbers in a hurry. At Baylor, he averaged 15.3 PPG in just 28.3 MPG. He also averaged 2.3 3PG on 33.8 3P%, 4.2 RPG, 2.8 APG, and 1.1 SPG. Given the Jazz’s track record when it comes to developing shooting guards, he’s worth keeping an eye on this year and is a solid flier late in re-draft leagues if you are punting FG%. In rookie drafts, he’s a reasonable pick inside of the top 10.
17) Jalen Hood-Schifino – Hood-Schifino is just a name to file away for later. With the Lakers sporting arguably the deepest roster in the league, the 17th-overall pick is extremely likely to spend a major chunk of his rookie season in the G League. There is no realistic path to decent minutes this year. If he does get big run down the road, he is unlikely to be a major factor in fantasy leagues. Hood-Schifino enters the league with a game that isn’t a great fit for category leagues. At Indiana, he did not produce standout numbers in any category. As a freshman, the newest Laker averaged 13.5 PPG on 41.7 FG%, 1.2 3PG, on 33.3 3P%, 4.1 RPG, 3.7 APG, 0.8 SPG, and 2.8 TOPG in 33.1 MPG. There is not a lot to get excited about in that line.
18) Jaime Jaquez Jr. – Jaquez doesn’t need to be drafted outside of extremely deep leagues. However, he is someone that we should keep an eye on. He did have a somewhat fantasy-friendly game in college and was drafted by a team that has an outstanding track record when it comes to developing non-lottery picks. He’s also likely to be in the Heat’s rotation early in the year, although almost certainly in a limited capacity. If he does end up getting an extended look this year, Jazquez could end up as a strong source of both boards and steals. That is a combination that is usually not easy to find. During his senior year at UCLA, the swingman averaged an impressive 8.2 RPG and 1.5 SPG. The rest of his line will be limited early on. His jumper is still a work in progress (0.9 3PG on 31.7 3P%) and he’s not going to do much in assists (2.4 APG).
19) Brandin Podziemski – Podziemski is a very interesting player. At Santa Clara, he had an extremely fantasy-friendly game. After transferring from Illinois after his freshman year, Podziemski averaged 19.9 PPG on 48.3 FG%, 2.5 3PG on 43.8 3P%, 8.8 RPG, 3.7 APG, and 1.8 SPG for the Broncos. We have to take those monster numbers with a grain of salt because they were achieved in the West Coast Conference, but it is clear that this is a player with a game that is a great match for category leagues. Unfortunately, he landed with a team that is in win-now mode. It’s possible that Podziemski cracks the rotation this year, but barring injuries, the odds of Podziemski ending up in a 30 MPG for the Warriors in 2023-2024 are low. However, that could change as soon as next year. With Chris Paul having a non-guaranteed contract next year and Klay Thompson’s contract expiring this summer, the Warriors backcourt could look very different next season. If one or both of the veterans move on, Podziemski could find himself in a significant role. He’s a very nice pick for dynasty squads that are not too worried about short-term production.
20) Cam Whitmore – Whitmore was this year’s big draft day dropper. He was seen as a lottery talent but dropped due to some medical concerns and some poor interviews. That is worrisome because players who drop like that usually don’t work out. Players Perry Jones, Skal Labissiere, and Jared Sullinger were all seen as top lottery picks at one point before falling on draft day for similar issues. None of them did much damage at the pro level. Some major droppers do work out, but generally, the NBA does a good job of identifying red flags that are going to eventually limit a player. Despite the concerns, Whitmore is still worth a borderline top-10 pick in rookie drafts. His long-term upside is significant, and if you blow a pick in that range, it’s not the end of the world. Most players taken in that range in rookie drafts are going to end up as mediocre contributors. Whitmore probably won’t get heavy run this year, but if he does eventually step into a big-minute role, he could put up strong numbers in points, threes, boards, and steals. At Villanova, Whitmore averaged 12.5 PPG on 47.8 FG%, 1.4 3PG on 34.7 3P%, 5.3 RPG, and 1.4 SPG in only 27.3 MPG. He followed up that solid freshman season by producing a very intriguing 19.3 PPG on 44.7 FG%, 2.3 3PG, 5.2 RPG, and 2.5 SPG in his six summer league appearances.
21) Noah Clowney – Clowney is another rookie who will likely spend plenty of time in the G League this year. He is only for rebuilding teams in dynasty setups. The Net has some nice potential on the boards and defensive end thanks to size and athleticism. At Alabama, he needed only 25.4 MPG to average 7.9 RPG and 0.9 BPG. He should end up as one of the best rebounders in his class. He’s not hopeless on offense like many strong sources of boards and blocks, but he’s not going to be a notable contributor on that end for a while. A reliable three-ball is still multiple seasons away (0.9 3PG on 28.3 3P%) and he’s not going to be a high-volume option anytime soon (9.8 PPG on 48.6 FG%).
22) Dariq Whitehead – Whitehead is a long-term prospect who comes with some medical red flags. The 19-year-old has already had two surgeries on his foot. The first one wasn’t completely successful and it led to him being limited at Duke. The second one—which he is still recovering from—took place in June. The rookie may not be ready for the start of the season and it’s fair to expect the Nets to play it very safe with him all year long. If you are willing to be patient with Whitehead, you could eventually end up with a solid three-and-D type on your squad. Whiteside shot an impressive 42.9 percent from deep on decent volume (1.5 3PG in 20.6 MPG) while in Durham. He also produced 1.5 SP40 despite playing on a foot that wasn’t completely healed. The rest of his line will likely be limited.
23) Kris Murray – Murray would be a more exciting prospect if his twin brother Keegan’s game had translated better at the pro level. Keegan looked like a potential fantasy monster coming out of Iowa. He produced strong numbers in every counting category except assists in college. Unfortunately, once he got to the pros, his defensive numbers disappeared and his very strong rebounding numbers fell off. Kris also comes into the league with a game that looks fantasy-friendly, but due to what happened with his brother, we should be cautious. As Iowa’s top option last season, Murray averaged an impressive 20.2 PPG on 47.6 FG%, 2.3 3PG on 33.5 3P%, 7.9 RPG, 2.0 APG, 1.0 SPG, and 1.2 BPG in 34.9 MPG. Unlike most rookies in this range, Murray is a good bet to be in the rotation right away. That makes him worth watching, but he likely won’t play enough to be more than a back-end option in extremely deep leagues—at least early in the year. It’s possible that he is unleashed late in the season. The Blazers shut down most of their regulars in mid-March last year. In rookie drafts, he should go a little higher than his real-life draft position, but he’s not a serious contender for a top-10 slot despite his flashy college averages.
24) Oliver-Maxence Prosper – Prosper looks like he could be a part of the Mavericks’ rotation right away. However, that doesn’t make him interesting, even in very deep leagues. The Canadian has a game that is a terrible fit for category leagues. He’s a defense-first prospect who doesn’t do much in the steals column. From a fantasy standpoint, that is a terrible combination. As a junior at Marquette, Prosper produced an extremely forgettable 12.5 PPG on 51.2 FG%, 1.1 3PG on 33.9 3P%, 4.7 RPG, 0.7 APG, 0.9 SPG, and 0.1 BPG in 29.1 MPG. He’s someone to ignore until the end of the draft in rookie drafts.
25) Marcus Sasser – Sasser is a combo guard who spent four years at Houston. In the pros, he projects as a nice defensive piece off the bench. He was a streaky offensive player in college, but the defense was always there. In his final year with the Cougars, Sasser averaged 16.8 PPG on 43.8 FG%, 2.7 3PG on 38.4 3P%, 2.8 RPG, 3.1 APG, and 1.6 SPG. In the pros, he could develop into a decent threes and steals option. However, if he does reach that level, it likely won’t be for at least a couple of years. It is really hard to envision a path to decent minutes on a Pistons team that has spent three top-five picks over the past three years on players who will spend all or at least some of their time in the backcourt.
26) Ben Sheppard – Sheppard is another very forgettable prospect. He’s unlikely to be a regular part of the rotation this season for the Pacers and doesn’t come with much long-term upside. He was a four-year player at Belmont who shot the ball well but didn’t do much elsewhere. In his senior year, the guard averaged 18.8 PPG on 47.5 FG%, 2.5 3PG on 41.5 3P%, 5.2 RPG, 2.9 APG, and 1.4 SPG. The steal rate looks nice, but when you factor in his age and the conference he played in, it’s not a number to get too excited about. Most rookies in this range don’t turn into useable fantasy pieces. That will likely be the case with Sheppard.
27) Nick Smith Jr. – Smith was a top prospect coming out of high school who ended up struggling in his 17 appearances with Arkansas. He dealt with a knee injury that cost him two months and ended up playing only 25.8 MPG over those 17 games. When he was on the court, he didn’t do anything to make us think he has the makings of a strong fantasy option. Scoring is supposed to be his bread and butter, but he didn’t do that particularly well in his lone season in college. Smith scored 12.5 PPG and averaged 1.4 3PG, but shot only 37.6 percent from the field and 33.8 percent from deep. The rest of his line was extremely limited (1.6 RPG, 1.7 APG, 0.8 SPG). Even on a team like Charlotte, Smith is unlikely to see decent run anytime soon. He is just a long-term project that is unlikely to hit.
28) Brice Sensabaugh – Sensabaugh has quite a bit of potential as a scorer. At Ohio State, he was a high-volume, high-efficiency player. That is not a combination you usually see a freshman put together. With the Buckeyes, he averaged 16.3 PPG on 48.0 FG% and 1.8 3PG on 40.5 3P% in only 24.5 MPG. He also had a high FTAr in college and shot a solid 83.0 percent from the charity stripe. That last number is important because college FT% is a good indicator of three-point percentage at the pro level. It suggests that his great college shooting should carry over to the pros. Sensabaugh also projects to be a strong rebounder. The forward averaged 5.4 RPG despite playing somewhat limited minutes. The rest of his line will likely be underwhelming. He managed only 1.2 APG, 0.5 SPG, and 0.4 BPG last year. The weak defensive numbers are especially concerning because they are tied to some defensive shortcomings. Sensabaugh would have gone much higher on draft day if there weren’t real concerns about his ability on that end. We still haven’t seen the 20-year-old since the draft because of a June knee surgery. We’re also unlikely to see him much early on with the Jazz being fairly deep. He’s a name to keep in mind for later in the season. He could become interesting late if the Jazz rev up the tank in March and April. Sensabaugh should go much higher than his real-life draft position in rookie drafts. He is much more interesting than most of the players drafted outside of the lottery this year.
29) Julian Strawther – Strawther has been turning heads in Denver this preseason. He’s scored at least 16 points in all three of his appearances and has topped the 20-point mark twice. He’s also hit four threes in all three games. We’re dealing with a small sample size here, but that strong stretch makes Strawther someone to watch. He won’t have any value when the Nuggets are healthy, but if Michael Porter Jr.’s back acts up again, it’s possible the rookie turns in a decent source of points, threes, and boards. As a junior at Gonzaga, he averaged 15.2 PPG on 46.9 FG%, 2.2 3PG on 40.8 3P%, and 6.2 RPG in 31.2 MPG. The rest of his line won’t be pretty (1.3 APG, 0.8 SPG, 0.4 BPG), so his long-term outlook is so-so. However, given how good he’s looked up at this point, it’s fair to place him above most of the other late first-round picks in rookie drafts.
30) Kobe Brown – If Brown landed on a team that wasn’t as deep as the Clippers, he’d be an interesting fantasy prospect. He had a fairly fantasy-friendly game in his senior year at Missouri. In his final year of college, Brown averaged a well-rounded 15.8 PPG on 55.3 FG%, 1.5 3PG on 45.5 3P%, 6.4 RPG, 2.5 APG, and 1.5 SPG. He followed up that solid season with a big performance at summer league. In his five appearances there, Brown averaged an intriguing 15.2 PPG, 2.6 3PG, 7.0 RPG, 1.8 SPG, and 1.0 BPG in only 25.5 MPG. Unfortunately, we likely won’t see much of Brown for a while. He’s likely to spend most of the year in the G League. If he does turn into a decent fantasy option, it likely won’t be for at least a couple of years, and potentially not until after the Kawhi Leonard/Paul George era ends.
Rookies that should be drafted in standard re-draft formats:
Victor Wembanyama – Early rounds
Ausar Thompson – Before the final rounds
Scoot Henderson – Before the final rounds but not inside the top 100
Amen Thompson – Final-round flier
Brandon Miller – Final-round flier
Keyonte George – Final-round flier
Rookies worth monitoring that could become fantasy-relevant as the season progresses:
Anthony Black
Bilal Coulibaly
Jarace Walker
Taylor Hendricks
Dereck Lively
Jaime Jaquez Jr.
Cam Whitmore
Brice Sensabaugh
Julian Strawther
Tier 1:
Victor Wembanyama
Tier 2:
Ausar Thompson
Amen Thompson
Scoot Henderson
Tier 3:
Brandon Miller
Tier 4:
Taylor Hendricks
Jarace Walker
Keyonte George
Tier 5:
Anthony Black
Cason Wallace
Dereck Lively
Tier 6:
Cam Whitmore
Bilal Coulibaly
Gradey Dick
Kobe Bufkin
Brandin Podziemski
Tier 7:
Jaime Jaquez Jr.
Brice Sensabaugh
Tier 8:
Jett Howard
Jordan Hawkins
Tier 9:
Noah Clowney
Dariq Whitehead
Kris Murray
Julian Strawther
Jalen Hood-Schifino
Tier 10:
Kobe Brown
Marcus Sasser
Oliver-Maxence Prosper
Ben Sheppard
Nick Smith Jr.