23/24 Oct. 29 Box Score Analysis (6 Games)

Fred VanVleet (Buy Low): VanVleet is one of the stronger early-season buy-low targets. If you are punting FG%, it would almost be criminal to not at least enquire about his price. His upside in that build remains enormous. While two duds in three games is annoying, it’s not something to be too worried about. The fundamentals have been strong through three games. During his final season in Toronto when he finished as a top-20 nine-category asset and a top-five weapon in punt FG%, VanVleet played 36.7 MPG and had a usage rate of 23.2 percent and an assist rate of 28.1 percent. Through his first three games with the Rockets, Fred has played 36.8 MPG and has a usage rate of 21.8 percent and an assist rate of 30.0 percent. So far, his role has been very similar to what it was in Toronto. He’s just played poorly in two of his three games. It will be very tough for VanVleet to be more than a minor disappointment this year due to the minutes and how fantasy-friendly his game is. When I was updating the projections this morning, I was testing out different scenarios for FVV to see what it would take for him to bust on a per-game basis. The only semi-realistic paths to a major disappointment is through a major minutes drop or a major steals drop, both of which are very unlikely. If he’s playing minutes in the mid-30s and does his usual thing in steals, he’s a lock to be elite, even if the shooting comes in a little weaker than we’d like.

Subscribers can access the full Box Score Analysis here:

October 29th Box Score Analysis