Industry Auction Mock Draft – Nine-Category H2H

On September 16th, I participated in my first industry auction mock of the year. This mock was for nine-category H2H leagues. The participants in the draft were me, Eric Wong from The Athletic, Kyle McKeown and Josh Lloyd from Basketball Monster, Raphielle Johnson and Noah Rubin from Rotoworld, Dan Titus from Yahoo, Matty G from Insight Fantasy Sports, D Mac from NBA Fantasy Bible, Scott Keller from Menance Podman Fantasy NBA Podcast, Papi Roi from Fantasy Basketball PH Podcast, and yardship—a member of Adam King’s discord. The draft was also hosted by Adam King from Fantasy Basketball International. If you don’t follow those gentlemen already, get on that. Most of the analysts in the mock will be putting out their own breakdowns of the auction.

Below are some notes I made during the draft. They are meant to give you an idea of my strategy and mindset throughout the auction. I’ve included screenshots of the different parts of the draft, so you know what I was reacting to. My strategy going into the draft was to opt for a balanced approach. That is almost always the best approach to an auction draft. Stars and scrubs is popular, but that is a strategy that comes with a very low floor and a low hit rate. I’ve seen it work, but a mediocre or botched draft is a much more common outcome when that approach is deployed.

I’ve also included the projected standings based on both Elite Fantasy Basketball’s and Basketball Monster’s projections. I’ve included both sets of projected standings to give you a look at how the teams stand with and without games played factored in. I’ve also included some commentary on all of the final rosters.

One quick note before we get into the analysis. If you haven’t tried an auction draft before, change that. It is an extremely fun format. Having every player in the association available to you allows for so much creative freedom. It’s a more difficult drafting format that many strong fantasy players struggle with, but once you understand the strategy behind auction drafts, it becomes very rewarding. I wouldn’t bother with an auction mock on Yahoo, ESPN, or Fantrax just yet, as you won’t be able to find a dozen solid fantasy managers, and mocking with bots ruins the experience, but once draft season really gets going in October, give one a whirl. Even if you don’t end up playing in a league with an auction draft, it’s a fun experience that will improve your fantasy game. It may even give you some team building ideas for your snake drafts that you hadn’t thought of previously.

• Wemby at $92 is ridiculous. Eric’s draft and season ended as soon as it started. It is going to be very hard for him to fill out 12 more roster spots with just 108 dollars. Even if he does somehow pull off a strong draft, he’s going to be extremely vulnerable to injury during the regular season. Be prepared for this scenario in your league. It wouldn’t be surprising if Wemby’s average price ends up being over $80.
• Back-to-back steals for Kyle and D Mac. Those are very reasonable prices for Embiid and Haliburton. Neither player is a top target for me in an auction league, but that’s good value.
• $83 for Jokic isn’t quite as bad as $92 for Wemby, but it’s not far off. He should be going for closer to 70. His per-game output won’t be worth that much, but it’s fine to overpay $10 or so for the extremely high floor that accompanies the Nugget.
• Durant for $32 is solid. He’s another guy I’m not too interested in this year, but if he’s somewhat healthy, that should end up being a nice price.
• $65 for Luka is fine, although I prefer SGA at that price. I’m not in a hurry to get in on a player. I’m very happy to sit back and let the other managers nuke their budgets.
• I poked around with Kawhi but he ended up out of my price range. I’m not too upset about that. I don’t love picking up a high-risk player before having my core pieces set since I don’t yet know if I need to take a major swing.
• Paolo at $22 is not for me. He wasn’t worth $10 last year even though he played 80 games. The Paolo and Sengun picks make me think Josh is going for a punt percentages/turnovers setup. That’s his strategy in a lot of drafts. I know he always punts turnovers and doesn’t value percentages highly. It’s something to keep in mind going forward.
• $32 for Maxey is a lot. He’ll need to repeat last season to justify that. He won’t unless Embiid goes down early.
• Titus pairs up Giannis and Luka. He’s going stars and scrubs. I don’t think it will work because he’s already down to $86, but at least Luka and Giannis complement each other well. I assume he’ll be punting FT% and turnovers.

 

• $60 for AD is too much. He was worth that last year, but it becomes a very rough price if he plays 60 or so games like he usually does. There’s a lot of risk at that price and not much upside.
• Trae at $37 is decent value. However, in an auction league, deciding on your top option isn’t just about value. With the entire league available to you, you should also be thinking about who you want to build around. I find it tough to build around Young this year, so I’m not going to take him in an auction unless I have no other choice.
• I get into a bit of a bidding war for SGA. I was hoping to get him for closer to $60, but I don’t mind overpaying for a player I can build a strong team around in my sleep. Starting with SGA also brings the punt assists build into play. I love that since it will make the rest of the auction fairly straightforward and should lead to plenty of deals. I’ve done a lot of mocks with these analysts in the past and I rarely see any of them punt dimes. I think I should be able to scoop up plenty of value while they chase assists. I’ll be nominating point guards the rest of the way if I do decide to commit to the build. I’m also considering punting threes, but I think that setup will be harder to pull off.
• SGA at $65 looks very nice when you compare it to what Wemby and Jokic went for. I’d also rather SGA than Luka, so while I didn’t get a deal, I did do the best of the managers going after the truly elite options.
• Scott gets his first guy and it’s Markannen. I’m not a fan of that move. I don’t like getting high-risk guys right off the bat. It forces you to play it safe with your other top-end options.
• I thought about Tatum as a partner for SGA, but I figured I could do better with that $41. I also don’t want to be down half my budget less than 20 picks in.
• Titus is all in on stars and scrubs. He now has Luka, Giannis, and LeBron. I’m interested to see where this goes. I don’t think the end result will be pretty.
• Eric follows up his overpay for Wemby by getting Ayton for $10. I don’t love it. If you are going stars and scrubs, which that Wemby price forces, you don’t want your other core pieces to be fragile or shutdown risks. If you want to do stars and scrubs, do it with durable players.
• I pick up Towns for close to market value. I’d be fine with Towns in round three in a snake draft if I started with SGA. His out-of-position threes are a nice match for the runner-up for last year’s MVP. His percentages are also a great fit for punt assists.
• After the Towns pick, it’s my turn to nominate someone. I put up Harden because I’m punting assists and want to tank someone’s budget. Josh grabs him for $35 which strengthens my feeling that he’s going for a triple-punt with percentages and turnovers. Harden with Paolo and Sengun doesn’t make a lot of sense in other setups.
• JJJ goes for $25. I’m kicking myself a bit for not getting in the bidding since he’s a very nice fit for an SGA/Towns punt assists team. I think I can get blocks for cheap later in the auction, though. You will have plenty of moments like this in your auction draft where there’s a borderline decision to be made. You won’t know if you made the right one until the end of the draft, so don’t spend too much time dwelling on it.

• Josh grabs Fox to go with Harden, Banchero, and Sengun. Three of those four guys are a nice punt FT% core. I’m not sure what the plan is with Harden. Josh’s FT% is still going to be weak.
• Titus now has Luka, Giannis, LeBron, and Curry. He also has just $23 left to spend on nine roster spots. An approach like this could work with more durable players and if you play in a less competitive league where you can dominate the wire, but in a competitive league this approach is going to lead to a disastrous season. The final version of this team isn’t going to be that good due to more than half the roster being borderline waiver-wire options, and anytime one of the big guns is down, it is going to get walloped.
• Lots of point guards are coming off the board which I love. I’m really confident about my decision to punt dimes at this point. I know the tendencies of most of these guys and punting assist takes advantage of them. Think about what your leaguemates have done in the past when putting together your draft strategy.
• Raphielle has just $17 left after starting with Maxey, Brunson, Jokic, and Tatum. Jokic can work miracles, but I don’t think that core is strong enough to justify that approach. Raph will end up with at least seven back-end options on his team.
• I went after Scottie Barnes but lost him to a $35 bid. I’m hesitant to push harder because I have a budget advantage at the moment and don’t want to give it up this early. I also think I might be too focused on bringing blocks back. I need to remind myself to be patient. We still have 80 percent of the draft left.
• Siakam at $19 is nice. He’ll be solid value there if his FT% bounces back.
• I’m thinking about Chet at this point. He’s a perfect fit, but I doubt I’ll be able to get him without overpaying unless he’s not nominated for a while. There’s still a lot of money out there and a lot of managers who are willing to overpay.
• I pick up Keegan Murray for $9 which is solid value in punt assists. If the opposing managers are paying attention, this move may tip them off to what I’m planning. Murray will outplay that price without dimes but a lot of his value is in turnovers. I like him for the threes bump. Teams punting assists, especially those built around SGA, can struggle with the category. I’m trying to get ahead of the problem early.
• I nominate Cade since he’s a point guard and I know a lot of the guys in here like him. $25 comes off the board and I’m happy with the move.
• With SGA, Towns, and Murray on my squad, I’m treating the rest of the auction like an eight-category league draft. If I don’t, I’m going to overvalue players who have a lot of value tied up in turnovers. I’m a lock to finish near the top of the standings in the category. I print off EFB’s eight-category projections, so I don’t have to take the draft off my computer screen at any point.
• I got in on Don Mitch since he’s a dream fit for my core, but the price got out of hand. He’s a legitimate first-round player, so that’s not a surprise.
• Matty G now has Kyrie, LaMelo, Kawhi, and Don Mitch. That team is going to look very good in the Week 1 projections. It probably won’t be looking too great in the Week 20 projections. That’s too much injury risk to take on. To even make the playoffs, he’ll need to be absolutely dominant when healthy because there will be some stretches where he will be taking some huge Ls due to playing down multiple studs.

 

• Jalen Johnson is up. I’m interested to see how high his price goes since he’s trendy. He’s a good fit for punt assists, but I’m keeping my powder dry for now. He ends up going for $24 which is reasonable.
• Chet comes up and there’s a bidding war. He ends up at $36 which is too rich for me. I would have loved the fit, but it’s still early. I think I might be able to get better use of that $36. He goes to Eric who has Wemby already. That makes no sense to me. He doesn’t need blocks, so why is he spending big money on Chet? He’s a lock to have overload in category which makes the Wemby pick even worse.
• Matty G and Eric are down to $62 or less at this point. I’m keeping an eye on that. There are a few guys who likely won’t be too busy until the end of the draft.
• I’m not seeing any obvious punt assists teams. I might have the build to myself. There’s a team with three bigs and no guards, so hard to say there. The Wemby team might be, but I’m not too worried about that given they killed their draft with their first pick.
• Demar goes for $19. That’s good value. I would have liked him, but I’m worried about my threes. I don’t want too many low-3PG guards because I want to be able to target some of the low-3PG bigs who get a big bump when assists are thrown out.
• At this point, I have the fourth-largest budget.
• Dejounte goes for $26 which feels high. I doubt he hits that unless the Pelicans make a move—which they might.
• Jrue goes for $7. That’s solid. Nominating boring players who aren’t top-50 options in the middle of an auction usually ends well. Managers are still worried about their budgets and focusing on flashier players and won’t want to overpay for a boring top-80 option.
• I get Miles Bridges. I’m pumped. $13 bucks is really good value in punt assists. In punt assists being the key there. I’m basing my bidding strategy off what I have each player to be projected to be worth in eight-category punt assists. That gives me an idea of how high I can go when bidding. Bridges was a top-50 eight-category punt assists asset last year who was worth about $20 bucks. He could slip a bit due to Ball’s return and still be solid value. I also like him as a target in auction leagues because there could be some managers in your league who won’t touch him due to his off-court issues. He’s not someone you are likely to get into a bidding war for.
• Jalen Williams is up and goes for just $23. I thought he’d go higher since he’s receiving a fair amount of hype early in draft season. It’s possible the impact of the other managers draining their budgets early is kicking in. It might be time to get aggressive.
• I get into a bit of a bidding war for Mobley, but he goes for 29, and I don’t want to pay that. I really need to stop being so thirsty for blocks. It’s an easy category to find at a discount.

• Jaylen Brown for $21 is too risky for me outside of punt FT%. He was more of a top-75 nine-category league option last year which doesn’t justify that price. He should be more useful early in the season when Porzingis is out, but there will be plenty of players in his range who go for a lot less. Miles Bridges being one example.
• I get Bam for $25. A boring pick but he’s a nice fit for my team. He’s not a great block source, but his out-of-position steals will make it easier to take the cheap shot blockers who struggle in swipes.
• I have $64 left which puts me in the middle of the pack. Things are going well so far, but I need to be careful. An overpay could kill my late-draft flexibility.
• Fred is up and he goes for $31. That’s a correct price. He’ll be underrated in casual drafts but not in competitive ones. He’s fine as early as the second in snake leagues.
• Noah puts up Isaac for a couple of bucks. I’m not sure why. He could have got him for a dollar at the end of the draft.
• Jalen Green goes for $6. He was worth just a dollar last year, so he needs to make a jump to justify that price. With the Rockets being so deep, it’s unlikely he does.
• The two shot blockers I am keeping an eye on are Gafford who I believe will be fairly cheap and TJD. I’m not sure about what TJD’s price will be since he’s a trendy pick. I like Gafford a lot this year in punt assists at his current price. He could be an early-round player in that build in 22 MPG. Even if he somehow ended up playing just 20 MPG, he’d be useful in punt assists.
• Josh grabs Randle for $13. Paolo and Randle on the same team is interesting. Josh’s percentages are going to be a mess and so are his turnovers. He’ll need to be lights-out in the remaining six categories or he’ll be in trouble.
• I’m eying Trey Murphy at this point since his threes will make it easier to target the low-3PG bigs.
• Zion goes for $21. That’s too pricey for me after last year’s per-game output drop. He was just a top-50 punt FT% asset last year.
• I nominate D’Angelo Russell to get some more assists and a decent chunk of money off the board. He goes for $14, so mission accomplished.
• Myles Turner goes for $16. I debated grabbing him, but I think I can do better with that $16. It’s not a bad price, there are just a lot of cheap, quality bigs this year.
• Titus picks up Mikal Bridges for $14 bucks. It’s a good fit for his injury-prone stars and scrubs roster, but he now has just $9 left for eight roster spots. That is a lot of $1 players.

• Giddey is up. I bid him up a bit but quit early to make sure I don’t get caught with the bag. Grabbing a player with a ton of value in assists for $11 would be an enormous mistake. Trolling/boosting prices is a good strategy in auction leagues, but you don’t want to overdo it.
• Josh and Scott get in a bit of a bidding war for Buckets. He goes for $21 which is a little high for a player that injury-prone. Both teams have a decent budget left, so I’ll need to keep an eye on them. They may start bullying the smaller budget squads.
• There are still plenty of top-50 punt assist guys left. There are about 15-20 players who could end up in that range in that build. So far, being patient has worked out. I think I’ll be able to get a deal on some of those players.
• Derrick White goes for $17 which is good value. However, it’s Eric who picks him up. Eric has Chet and Wemby, so grabbing a player like White who has a fair amount of value tied up in swats doesn’t make a lot of sense to me. It looks like Eric may be punting points.
• Bane goes for $19. That’s cheap. It might be time to get some deals.
• Kuzma goes for $5 to Josh. That’s a nice price for a player who fits his triple-punt with FG%, FT%, and turnovers approach. I’m surprised no one bid that up.
• Naz Reid gets nominated and goes for $5. He goes to Raph who barely has any budget left. I don’t get that one at all. Reid is a $1 player.
• No one has significantly more money than me at this point. That should lead to good things over the second half of the draft.
• I nominate Garland. Not having to spend much time thinking about who to nominate is one of the advantages of punt assists. You can use that time and brain power to focus on players you actually want.
• I miss out on Tobias who would have been a nice fit for my build. Right now, I’m willing to pay a couple extra bucks for players I want but not more. With so many top-100 punt assist options left on the board, overpaying doesn’t make sense.
• Jamal Murray goes for $15 which is a very nice deal. He scares me this year, but I’d be happy with him at that price if I wasn’t punting assists. Another signal that deals can be had.

• I now have the second-largest remaining budget.
• Josh gets Rudy for $11. That’s super cheap. Good stuff by Josh. I goofed there. I didn’t expect the bidding to end that early and waited too long. That’s a great deal, although if Josh is punting FG%, Rudy won’t be that much of a help.
• Coby White for $8 is too high. He was just a borderline top-100 option in over 37 MPG last year and is going to lose touches to Giddey. He should go for a few bucks at most.
• I get Jarrett Allen for 14. That’s great. He was a top-24 eight-category punt assists asset on a totals basis last season and a top-40 per-game asset. He only played 31.7 MPG last year, so I’m not too, too worried about an Atkinson-related minutes drop.
• Duren goes for $16. That makes me feel even better about my Allen pick since I prefer the Cavalier. Duren is solid, but unless his college block rate comes back, he’s going to stall in the middle rounds. It’s not a lock to, as he’s looked lost at points on defense in his first two years in the league. After picking Duren, Scott has $7 left and just one roster spot. His team looks pretty solid to me, but he could have likely built an even stronger team if he had been a little more patient.
• At this point, I’m pretty set in the big man categories, so it’s time to load up on points, threes, and steals options. In snake drafts, you can’t wait until the second half of the draft to go after points and steals, but in auction drafts, you can.
• I fix my threes issue right away with MPJ for $8. I still don’t completely trust his back, but I’m willing to take the risk at that price for a player who has a good shot at cracking the top 50 in punt assists.
• Scott finishes his draft by grabbing Schroder for $2. I’m not sure why because if he waited, he may have been able to get a mid-round player for $7 later in the draft.
• Titus has $9 left with eight roster spots remaining. Raph has $7 left with 7 roster spots remaining. Those are the two obvious stars and scrubs teams.

 

• Some guys on my radar at this point are Suggs, Murphy, TJD, Gafford, Trent, and Hendricks.
• I get into a low-cost bidding war for Gafford and get him for $8. He’s not a risk-free investment, but I love getting that much upside at that price. He could be a top-30 player in punt assists this year. I think some are forgetting how little playing time Gafford needs to be a mid-round player, especially in builds like punt assists. He did all of his damage last year in a low-20s role. Gafford will crush his ADP if the split with Lively is 26/22 in Lively’s favor.
• I have Towns, Adebayo, Allen, and Gafford on my roster now, so it will be almost all perimeter options the rest of the way. I doubt I will end up grabbing more than one more big.
• I get Bogdan Bogdanovic for $8. I like the price and I like the fit. He should be close to a 3.0 3PG option and will outplay his ADP when healthy. He was a top-65 nine-category asset last year who is stepping into an expanded role.
• My budget is now above average but not elite, so I’m probably going to take it easy for a bit. I have four roster spots left and $26.
• Mark Williams goes for $15. That’s more than what I got Allen for. Williams is a good fit for punt assists and has a lot of upside in that build, but I’m set in the big man categories, so I pass.
• My son is pretending he needs a diaper change to get my attention. I say not now kid, the subscribers need auction league content.
• I nominate Reaves since he’s one of the few 5.0+ APG players left on the board. I keep an eye on the price despite the iffy fit for my build since I like his outlook and I need help in the scoring categories. $7 is cheap for what he brings. A nice grab by D Mac who has plenty of money left and a solid core. If he plays the final third of the draft right, he could finish with a very strong team.
• Turns out, I was lying about taking it easy. LaVine comes up and I pounce. He’s risky, but $13 dollars is a nice price for a player who was worth double that two seasons ago. He also gets me back to around average in points and helps me in threes. I still need help in triples, but if I can get someone like Trent later, I should be fine.
• Caruso goes for $4. I would have liked him that cheap, but I missed out because I was writing my note about LaVine. Pain.

 

• Dyson Daniels goes for two bucks. I like that move for Eric who is punting points. We are now at the point in the draft where most players are going to be very cheap. I have a below-average budget after my LaVine move, so I need to be smart here.
• The aim is for Murphy, Suggs, and Trent to shore up my points, threes, and steals. Trent should come for a buck or two. Grabbing both of Murphy and Suggs is ambitious. With a few decent budgets still out there, I could see both players getting bid up.
• Podziemski goes for $7 to Kyle. That worries me a bit since it’s an example of one of the bigger remaining budgets being willing to overpay for their guys. Hopefully, my guys are not their guys.
• My turn to nominate. Again, I’m paying more attention to this write-up than the draft, so I panic and throw up Herb Jones knowing I’d be fine if no one bid on him. He goes to Eric for four bucks. Another good punt points option for a punt points squad. He’s recovered better than I thought he would after the Wemby overpay.
• Papi Roi has $47 left and six roster spots open. He’s starting to get aggressive. He gets Walker Kessler for $8 bucks which is fine. He’s a tough player to peg, but he could crush that price if things break his way.
• Jaden Ivey gets nominated and doesn’t get a bid. I hope Matty wanted him. I have no interest in Ivey in category leagues. In points leagues, he’s fine as a late-round flier.
• JV goes to Papi Roi for $3. That’s a great price. So far, holding back a good chunk of his budget has worked fairly well.
• Porzingis goes for $3 to Josh. That’s going to make his teams look better in my projections than it actually is since my projected standings don’t take into account games played. That is also his final pick. Finishing your draft with 50 picks left is less than ideal.

 

• 

• I bid for Amen at the last second for $5. I miss on him because Papi Roi has a bigger budget than me. I’m not too upset since I am already set in most of Amen’s stronger categories. I like to bid at the last second on players I like because it can lead to the other manager getting rattled and making a poor decision. I know it throws me off a bit when someone makes that move against me.
• Murphy is nominated and I am very interested. Unfortunately, he goes to Papi Roi for $19. I was worried that was going to happen. He had a lot of money left and not many mid-round guys to spend it on. That price makes me feel good about getting Keegan Murray for less than half of that. Papi’s budget is cooked now, so I no longer have to worry about him.
• It’s my turn to nominate and I throw out Gary Trent who I want. A somewhat risky move as there is still a good amount of money left, but it works. That’s a major boon for my squad that was a little light in points, threes, and steals.
• I now have two spots left and $12. I’ll likely spend $11 on a player I think who could crack the middle rounds and $1 on a low-end option I like.
• Suggs comes up and I try to make him that $11 player, but I am outbid by Kyle. Disappointed.

• I’m aiming for one solid blocks option and one solid 3PG option. Those needs scream Taylor Hendricks and PJ Washington. I’m sure PJ will go for a dollar. Hendricks probably won’t since he’s trendy.
• Poeltl is up next and I absolutely blow it. I get scared off at $7 which makes no sense. I had just convinced myself to use $11 on one player and I immediately go back on it. What a choke.
• I end up paying $11 for Okongwu which stings. That’s a panic move. I was patient all draft long and needed to be one last time. Oh well, no draft is perfect, especially when the draft is an auction draft. I like Okongwu, but I would have much rather had Poeltl for that price. I cope by pretending that Poeltl would have gone for $12.
• I have one dollar left, so next time around I’ll likely nominate a guy who I don’t think will get a bid. I’m thinking about Melton since I wouldn’t mind one last threes and steals boost. I don’t want to nominate Hendricks because the only way he goes for a dollar is if he gets nominated right at the end of the auction.
• Melton gets nominated and I can’t do anything. He’s out.
• The same goes for Hendricks who goes for more than a dollar. That’s not a surprise.

• I nominate Cam Johnson knowing he won’t go for a dollar to drain some budget. He goes for four to Matty G who had a beefy budget going into the final stretch.
• TJD goes for $3 which rattles me. This better be the year, OO.
• Lively goes for $3 as well and now all but one team has $8 or less.
• I nominate PJ Washington expecting to get him and he gets two bids and goes for $3. I’m surprised at the one, but I’m not too upset about it since Sochan is still out there who I like quite a bit.
• Jerami Grant goes for $2. That’s very nice. At that price, who cares if he gets shut down.

• D Mac has $12 left and just one spot available. He waited too long to spend his cash. Most teams are done at this point.
• My backup to Sochan is Wiggins, but I’d be happy with either at this point.
• Titus attempts to scoop Keon Ellis for a buck. It doesn’t work and he can’t do anything since he’s down to a buck a player.
• I get Sochan and my draft is done. A solid $1 player.
• The draft ends with a run of $1 players. Mitch Rob is the best of the bunch. A steal for $1. I expect his price to rise as draft season goes on and fantasy managers start to remember he was really, really good two years ago. Gordon and Portis are also solid final-pick options. I don’t mind Eason or Monk either.

Final Rankings

• The first set of projected standings is the projected standings using EFB’s projections. They don’t take into account games played, so teams built around injury-prone players get a boost. BBM’s standings do count games played, but that is also an imperfect measure since games played is hard to predict. Both sets of projections like my team a lot. I’m a bit surprised it looks as strong as it does on BBM because they have SGA projected at what I would consider his floor. The middle of the standings are very tight. There isn’t a major difference between most teams. This is a league that would likely be won on the wire. My projections do have my team losing to Matty G’s, but that’s not something I’m worried about. In a competitive league, it’s hard to match up well against everyone. His team is also built around Kyrie, Kawhi, and LaMelo which means it’s not going to be nearly as good as it projects to be on a per-game basis most weeks. There are a few teams that are in trouble because they don’t have a clear path to five categories. A couple of them are stars and scrubs teams. That’s not a surprise as that strategy is very tough to pull off.

Final Rosters

• I came away from the draft happy with my team. I’ve had stronger drafts, but in an auction format where your floor is lower than it is in snake drafts, it’s hard to complain about a team that is projected to finish atop the standings. I took a balanced approach. That was always the plan. I am a somewhat risk-adverse drafter in general and I hate the low floor that comes with stars and scrubs. That is also a strategy that doesn’t make a lot of sense when you punt assists since most of the time, the stars you will be paying up for have a lot of value tied up in assists. The Okongwu pick bugged me when it happened, but after studying the final couple dozen picks, I’m fine with it. He does have league-winning upside in punt assists if he takes over for Capela and I’m not sure I could have done much better than him and Sochan with my final 12 dollars. I don’t think I could have gotten two potential mid-round players for six dollars each.

 

• I thought D Mac started off very strong with his Haliburton pick but gave back the value he gained by getting the point guard at a discount with his Davis overpay. This looks like a stars and scrubs approach that was bailed out late with his cheap pickups of Poeltl and TJD. The Reaves pick was very solid as well. The mid-draft Hart pick was confusing. Hart is unlikely to be a 12-team player as long as the Knicks are somewhat healthy and he almost certainly could have been had for a dollar late in the draft. D Mac waited too long to use his budget, evidenced by the $9 he left on the table, but once he did start engaging more, he did a good job of bullying the teams with smaller budgets.

 

• This team looks decent to me which is not something I expected to write after the Wembanyama wildness and the Chet pick that followed. This team still has way, way too many blocks, but it’s not dead. If he moved Chet for a better fit, this team could sneak into the playoffs, although I doubt it does much damage there with Ayton’s March outlook looking very iffy. Getting Caruso for $4 was great and Daniels was a nice $2 target for a team that ended up punting points. This is also a punt assists setup. I didn’t catch onto that during the draft because I wrote the team off early. For this group to be competitive, it needs to get its percentages up. If this team could get to 50.0 percent from the field and 80.0 from the line, it could be a tricky matchup for a lot of teams.

 

• I would not recommend going with the approach Dan took. Stars and scrubs comes with a low floor when built around sturdy options. When a stars and scrubs team is built around fragile players, it is a disaster waiting to happen. I like most of Titus’ low-end pieces, but those picks aren’t strong enough to save the team during the inevitable stretches where one or two of the top four are out.

 

• I got the feeling Josh was focusing more on value than team building throughout the draft. Pairing Harden with punt FT% types doesn’t make a lot of sense. Neither does punting both percentages. I don’t like to punt both percentages for a couple of reasons. The first is that there are not a lot of players who struggle in both. Yes, players like Paolo and Randle get a boost, but do we really want to base our draft strategy around boosting players like that? There are much easier paths to a strong team. It’s also not a great strategy because punting FG% and punting FT% do opposite things. When we punt FG%, we will be strengthening ourselves in the guard categories at the expense of the big man categories. When we punt FT%, we will be strengthening ourselves in big man categories at the expense of some of the guard categories. If you punt both, you are nullifying both advantages and are left punting two categories without strengthening yourself much in the remaining categories. Punting both percentages is like punting points and FG% or blocks and FT%. When we punt two categories, we need to choose categories that correlate with each other. This team is also punting turnovers which makes a path to winning five categories consistently difficult. The Porzingis pick makes this team look better than it is. As you can see in the BBM projections, which take into account games played, this team is likely to struggle when the Celtic is not in the lineup.

 

• At first glance, this team looks solid. It’s deep and picked up Embiid at a very reasonable price. However, I think it would end up struggling because it’s not super strong in many categories. This team should win blocks most weeks and rebounds fairly consistently, but it looks very average elsewhere. This is the downside to not punting anything. Being average in most categories is going to lead to your team losing to any team with five above-average categories which will be any team that punted. Building a balanced team around Embiid is particularly dangerous. Balanced squads will struggle to deal with injuries more than squads punting a category or two since most of their categories will end up below average when an early-round piece goes down. Teams punting a category will take a hit, but they could still be average or better in some categories since they will be well above average in a handful of categories when healthy.

 

• This will be a very good team for about six weeks of the season and a nightmare to manage the rest of the year. Even if the top four plays 65 games—which is a stretch for all of the top four except Mitchell—there will be a handful of weeks where the team is down multiple studs and gets destroyed by the competition. All of the depth pieces besides Ivey look decent, but that won’t save this team when multiple studs are out. Horford is also an iffy pick for this team since he’ll get plenty of rest days. There’s nothing wrong with taking one of Leonard, Ball, or Kyrie, but you can’t pair them up.

 

• BBM hates this team while my projections don’t mind it. It has decent talent, but the fit is so-so. Its issue is that it is much stronger in points and assists than it needs to be. That leads to it being weaker than it should be elsewhere and doesn’t give it a clear path to five categories and the win. If I was Noah, I would try to swap Cunningham for a player/players who help in threes, rebounds, and the percentages. It doesn’t need to be too much stronger in those three areas to win the categories consistently and his team can survive the points and assist hit that comes with dumping the Piston. Moving Cade would allow this team to win turnovers against the four other teams in the league punting turnovers.

 

• Not targeting the truly elite (and expensive options) is usually a good strategy in auction leagues. However, you don’t want your top-end options to be too weak. Barnes being your top player is fine if he’s paired with a couple of other top-25 players. It’s rough if your second-best player is Desmond Bane or Evan Mobley. It’s a deep team, but being deep can only take you so far. This team is punting points which makes Zion a very iffy fit. I would consider swapping him out for a sturdier option who is stronger in the remaining categories. This team’s FG% would still be respectable in that situation and it would have a much better shot at winning FT% and turnovers consistently. This team is also very weak in threes. I would move White who does very little outside of points and threes and go all in with the double punt of points and threes. Papi Roi held onto a good chunk of his budget until late in the draft. That allowed him to get a couple of deals, but it also led to a huge overpay for Murphy. Late in the draft there just weren’t many mid-round players for Papi Roi to spend his extra cash on.

 

• This is another stars and scrubs team gone wrong. Jokic is great, Maxey, Tatum, and Brunson are all very solid as well, but you can’t win your league when John Collins is your fifth-best player. This team could survive in a league with inexperienced managers where it’s possible for one player to dominate the wire, but not in a competitive setup. I do like this stars and scrubs team more than Titus’, however, since it is built around durable options. That’s a must if you are rolling with stars and scrubs. You need your top-end options to stay healthy and buy you some time while you try to find a couple of mid-round players on the wire. Raph did do well with a handful of his $1 options. Conley and Gordon for a buck is a steal. Melton, Eason, and Monk are good targets at the end of auctions as well. Reid for $5 didn’t make sense and really hurt this team. There were mid-round players available for that price towards the end of the draft.

 

• Scott finished his draft very early. His last pick was Schroder who was the 84th player taken. He almost certainly left some value on the board by taking that approach, but he did end up with one of the stronger teams, although not one I would trust in the playoffs due to the high likelihood of losing Markkanen late in the year. I don’t see any rough prices here. That’s a little high for Vassell, but he could play himself into that range. Buckets is risky that high, but we know he has that gear. Vucevic for $8 is a steal. He’s trending in the wrong direction, but he’s still very valuable. He is coming off a top-50 nine-category finish and played 76 games in 2023-2024. I’m not sure what Scott’s thought process was with the Schroder pick. That felt like a classic case of overvaluing dimes. With seven dollars left, he could have gotten another mid-round player late instead of settling for a player who could easily end up as just an assist streamer.

 

• Yardship was the only non-analyst in the mock and he more than held his own. I don’t like all the picks here, but I do like how he ended up with four potential second-round per-game options on his team. That’s a classic and effective way to approach an auction draft. Yardship is punting FG% and turnovers. He did a good job leaning into the double-punt. He’s going to win points, threes, and assists consistently. He should pick up steals and FT% fairly often as well. He didn’t get where needed to get in rebounds and blocks, but that’s often going to be the case for a punt FG% squad. If he had spent the $10 he spent on Middleton on one of the many mid-round bigs available at that price, he’d be in much better shape. Hendricks and Sarr are great cheap fliers for a punt FG% squad. Overall, a job well done.