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Punting Guides

2024-2025 Punt Blocks Guide (Yahoo)

2024-2025 Punt Blocks Guide (ESPN)

 

Projections

Rankings

1) Nikola Jokic (C) – Jokic remains the king of nine-category leagues, although the gap between the three-time MVP and the rest of the field is smaller than it has been at any point since the Nugget ascended to the throne during his breakout 2020-2021 campaign. Victor Wembanyama is already a threat to take Jokic’s spot at the top and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is coming off a season in which he produced slightly stronger per-game numbers than the Serbian. While passing over the big man for Wembanyama or SGA is defensible, Jokic remains the safest option at one. Jokic’s durability and well-rounded line is what gives him a slight edge on Wembanyama in nine-category setups. While Wembanyama did play a very solid 71 games in his rookie campaign, he is not an established iron man like Jokic is. Jokic is coming off a 79-game campaign and has missed more than ten games in a season only once in his career. He is also on a team with championship aspirations and a thin bench which makes late-season sits unlikely. Unlike Wembanyama, Jokic doesn’t have a huge amount of value tied up in any category. His best categories in 2023-2024 were rebounds and FG%. Jokic was about 2.5 standard deviations above the league average in both categories. Wembanyama, on the other hand, was over five standard deviations above the league average in blocks. Players with that much value tied up in one category tend to be less valuable than their overall z-score average suggests since their dominance in their top category often leads to overkill in the category, something we always want to avoid. Blocks being Wembanyama’s best category is also less than ideal from a category scarcity standpoint. Swats come off the board much less quickly than assists do and are much easier to find during the second half of the draft. Jokic’s argument against SGA is slightly different. He does have a durability advantage on the Canadian, but last year’s runner-up for MVP comes with a line that is just as well-rounded and just as potent in the categories that come off the board the quickest. In addition to durability, what also gives Jokic a slight advantage over Gilgeous-Alexander is his position. It is much easier to find guards in the early-to-middle rounds who produce strong numbers in points, assists, and FT% impact than it is to find bigs who do the same. Jokic and a third- or fourth-round guard is usually going to end up as a stronger combination than SGA and a third- or fourth-round big man in points, assists, and possibly FT%.

Jokic’s all-around dominance makes him a viable starting point for almost every build. However, he is best paired with the punt threes strategy. No other build boosts the superstar’s value as much as punt threes does and Jokic’s strengths line up perfectly with the build’s potential troublesome areas. Due to the punt threes build being a big-heavy strategy, those ignoring triples often run into problems with points, assists, steals, and FT%. That is unlikely to end up being the case if you start your punt threes team with the Nugget. Jokic is elite in the first three categories and a well-above-average contributor for his position in the fourth. A punt threes team that does not struggle in the guard categories will be extremely hard to top. Punting blocks is another obvious strategy for teams fortunate enough to begin their draft with Big Honey. However, that strategy should be viewed as a backup to punt threes. Punt threes tends to be a stronger strategy than punt blocks because the boost that low-3PM players receive in punt threes is usually larger than the boost that low-BPG players receive in punt blocks. When punting threes, it will be easier to find players who can outplay their draft position by multiple rounds.

Best Builds: Punt Threes, Punt Blocks, Punt Points, Punt FT%

2) Victor Wembanyama (C) – While Nikola Jokic is the safest option at one in nine-category leagues, he is not a must at the top spot like he has been the last three seasons. Wembanyama does have the potential to match Jokic on a per-game basis and should be more valuable than the three-time MVP in certain builds. Taking Wemby at one is fine if you feel like that move will lead to a stronger overall team. You won’t know whether that is the case without plenty of preparation. So if you are fortunate enough to land the first pick, make sure you are spending plenty of time with the Team Building Tool and Punting and Paring Guides before locking yourself into either center. Victor does not need to improve much to be worth a top-three pick. If he can even repeat what he did over the final three months of the 2024-2025 season, he’ll have a shot at being the most valuable asset in fantasy basketball. Over that stretch, the Frenchman averaged a ridiculous 23.1 PPG on 46.9 FG% and 78.9 FT%, 2.1 3PG, 10.9 RPG, 4.7 APG, 1.3 SPG, and 3.9 BPG. It would not be surprising at all if Wembanyama topped most of those numbers as a sophomore. He should improve as a player this year and is likely going to see his playing time increase. Somehow Victor was able to produce those absurd numbers in just 30.7 MPG.

In both nine- and eight-category leagues, Wembanyama should be paired with the punt FG% build. The second-year man’s boards and blocks are a dream fit for a strategy that tends to struggle with both categories. Wembanyama can win blocks almost by himself, and while you will still have plenty of work to do in boards, finishing the draft in at least an average position in rebounds will be very doable. A punt FG% team built around the big man that can win one or both of rebounds and blocks consistently will be incredibly hard to beat, especially in eight-category leagues where Wembanyama’s atrocious turnover rate doesn’t matter (3.7 TOPG).

Best Builds: Punt FG%, Punt Assists

3) Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (PG) – In the majority of leagues, SGA will be picked either third or fourth. That’s a very reasonable spot for Gilgeous-Alexander, but it does not represent his ceiling. The Canadian produced similar per-game and total value as Jokic in 2023-2024 and was more valuable than Wembanyama during the center’s monster finish to his rookie year. The point guard is an outstanding pick both from an overall value standpoint and a category scarcity standpoint. He is a lock to finish as a top-four per-game asset and produces big numbers in all the categories that become difficult to find after the first few rounds. Points, assists, and FT% are the three categories that dry up the quickest in fantasy basketball drafts. In 2023-2024, SGA was a top-four contributor in points (30.1 PPG) and FT% impact (87.4 FT%) and a top-25 contributor in dimes (6.2 APG). While the Thunder did make some notable additions this summer, they did not bring in any threats to Gilgeous-Alexander’s usage or touches. Because of that, almost everything in SGA’s 2023-2024 line is repeatable. The one area where we will likely see some regression is steals. Last season’s 2.1 SP36 was easily the highest mark of the guard’s career. Prior to last season, his career-high per-minute output in the category was 1.7 SP36. The nature of steals also makes last year’s 2.0 SPG a tough number to trust. No category has more year-to-year variance on the player level than swipes. Big jumps that are followed by material drops are common. A potential drop in steals should not scare you away from SGA inside of the top three, but it is something to keep in mind when putting together your draft plan. Shai is an outstanding centerpiece for the punt threes build. He gains value when threes are ignored (1.3 3PG) and puts up huge numbers in points, assists, steals, and FT%, which are the categories punt threes squads need to keep an eye on.

Best Builds: Punt Threes, Punt Assists

 

Pairing Guides

Luka Doncic (Pick 3-4)

Punt FG%:

Luka Doncic/Fred VanVleet 

Above average in Threes, Assists, Steals

Average in Turnovers

Below average in Points, Rebounds, Blocks, FT%

Whether or not to grab VanVleet in the second instead of the third comes down to what you think the Victor Wembanyama team will do at the turn. If you get the feeling the Wemby squad is going to punt FG%, grabbing VanVleet a round early makes a lot of sense. While Fred will go in the third in most leagues, a second-round selection should not be considered a reach. That is where he should be going. He’s just mispriced on both Yahoo and ESPN. Pairing VanVleet with Doncic gives you two top-10 punt FG% weapons. In 2023-2024, VanVleet finished tenth in the nine-category punt FG% rankings and Doncic finished third. Adding the Rocket to a Doncic-led squad is the easiest way to avoid a double-punt with turnovers. In 2023-2024, VanVleet averged just 1.7 TOPG. This pairing also puts you in an elite position in threes, assists, and steals. FT% could be an issue for this duo if Luka regresses at the line. If he doesn’t, this is a reasonable start in the category. Points, rebounds, and blocks are all a touch low, but none of the three are in trouble. The former Raptor also makes sense as a Doncic partner due to his Week 20 schedule. The Rockets will play four times during the Mavericks’ two-game week.

Giannis Antetokounmpo (Pick 5-6)

Punt FT%

Giannis Antetokounmpo/De’Aaron Fox

Above average in Points, Rebounds, Steals, FG%

Average in Assists, Turnovers

Below average in Threes, Blocks

It’s fine to reach for Fox in the middle of the second if you are punting FT%. In other builds, he’s best left for the end of the round or the first half of the third. The King was a first-round asset in punt FT% last season and will likely end up as at least a top-25 player in his best build despite the DeMar DeRozan acquisition. This duo puts you in an outstanding position in points, rebounds, steals, and FG%. This pairing’s strong output in points and steals is especially valuable given the punt FT% build’s natural weakness in both categories. This is also an average start in turnovers which is rare for a Giannis-led pairing. The only real weakness this twosome has is in threes. Fox has greatly improved his three-point shooting as of late but will likely regress in the category this season with DeRozan taking away usage. Those rolling with this duo should prioritize threes in the third and fourth rounds and should consider taking at least one stretch big later in the draft. If you only target the 0.0 3PG bigs who are obvious fits for this build, you could end up punting both threes and FT%.

 

Fast Starts Guides

Victor Wembanyama (Pick 1-2)

Punt FG%

Wembanyama/Brunson/VanVleet/Murray/Vucevic/Russell – This is an excellent start from a category scarcity standpoint. Points, assists, steals, and FT% impact are difficult to find during the second half of the draft. This group is average in points and very strong in the other three categories. This group also sends you into the second half of the draft in an average position in turnovers. That is a difficult feat to pull off when punting FG% with Wembanyama. Rebounds are this combination’s lone weakness. You are not in trouble in the category but you are below average.

Giannis Antetokounmpo (Pick 5-6)

Punt FT%

Antetokounmpo/Ball/Maxey/Murray/Gobert/Russell – This is your standard punt FT% start. Grabbing four point guards and two elite punt FT% bigs over the first six rounds will almost always lead to a strong team. This group is average in points, steals, and FG% and strong in threes, rebounds, assists, and blocks. Its lone weakness is turnovers. However, you can still end up in a very good position in the category if you avoid taking any major hits late. That should be doable since you don’t need to take more than one or two more quality assist sources. Swapping Ball for De’Aaron Fox addresses this combination’s weakness in turnovers at the expense of some strength in threes and assists.

 

Team Building Tool

 

Here are some screenshots of the tool:

Victor Wembanyama/Karl-Anthony Towns/Fred VanVleet vs. Victor Wembanyama/Damian Lillard/De’Aaron Fox

 

A punt FT% squad built around Giannis Antetokounmpo that was drafted during an Industry Mock:

 

 

 

 

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Draft Season Content Tracker

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