25/26 Opening Night Box Score Analysis (2 Games)
Thunder 125 Rockets 124 (2 0T)
Cason Wallace (Pick Up) – Wallace was a no-show in the first half before exploding in the second half and overtime. In category leagues, he is a must-roster. He’s likely going to get a small minutes bump this year, which makes 2.0 SPG likely. If he can give us anything on offense, he’ll be a must-roster in 12-team leagues. Given where he is at in his career, at least minor improvement on the offensive end is likely. Wallace is currently available in 67 percent of Yahoo leagues and 90 percent of ESPN leagues.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander – The quiet first half is nothing to worry about. The Rockets were doubling and trapping SGA whenever he touched the ball and were daring the Thunder’s supporting cast to beat them. In the first half, that strategy worked extremely well. In the second half and overtime, SGA got loose and went back to looking like his usual self. His efficiency could suffer with J Dub out, but he’s still extremely likely to finish as a top-three player this season.
Ajay Mitchell (Watch) – Mitchell, along with Chet, kept the Thunder in the game in the first half. Unfortunately, his excellent play didn’t lead to big minutes. He’s just a watch list player for deeper leagues and is very unlikely to produce anything too useful once Jalen Williams returns.
Alex Caruso (Pick Up in 14+ team leagues) – Caruso started the second half for Hartenstein. He’ll do that occasionally. However, his minutes will rarely get out of the low-to-mid-20s, so he should be viewed as just an elite steals streamer in 12-team setups. In deeper leagues, where steals specialists are more valuable, he’s a reasonable long-term hold.
Tari Eason (Hold) – It’s hard to know how much to take away from this game because we don’t know if the double-big lineup is here to stay or if it was a matchup move with Chet and Hartenstein on the other end. If it does end up being the Rockets’ go-to lineup, Eason could struggle. He’s not the type of player who is going to excel with minimal spacing. However, we should give him plenty of leash before we start to consider a drop. While he didn’t look good tonight, he was the first Rocket off the bench and looks likely to end up in a mid-20s role. In 2024-2025, Eason finished as a top-65 nine-category asset in just 24.9 MPG.
Amen Thompson – Amen had a fairly forgettable night before cramps sent him to the bench for good at the beginning of the first overtime. OKC dared him to shoot, and he couldn’t take advantage. However, if you grabbed Amen this year, I would be happy about how tonight went. It is very, very clear that the Rockets are lacking in the ball-handling department. When the ball wasn’t in Thompson’s hands, the Rockets’ offense slowed to a crawl. I would not rule out 37 MPG this year. That is what Fred Van Vleet played in his first season in Houston. If he lands in that range, he could be a top-six player in friendly builds like punt threes or punt FT%. Amen managers should be hoping that the double-big lineup doesn’t get used too often. Thompson’s rebounds will come in low if he has to spend a big chunk of his minutes playing beside two centers. The lack of spacing will likely hurt his efficiency and dimes, as well.
Alperen Sengun – A monster start to the season for Sengun. The shooting, both from deep and the line, isn’t real, but it was a very encouraging night for Sengun squads because he looked like the top option on the team. Durant was invisible for extended stretches and Amen isn’t a top-option type. If the Rockets stick with the double-big lineup, Sengun’s line is going to look different this year from how it looked last year. He was spending a lot more time on the perimeter tonight and didn’t do much work in the post. We could see Sengun’s threes come in well over expectations and his FG% come in a little low. It’s hard to say if that will be a positive development for Sengun. Sometimes when a big develops a three-ball, the additional threes lead to extra value, but sometimes the FG% drop cancels out the extra threes.
Reed Sheppard (Hold) – This wasn’t an ideal start for Sheppard. He was sitting at just 20 minutes before Amen went down and the shooting was poor. However, the rest of the line was solid and it’s clear that the Rockets need a player like him. Houston’s offense was hard on the eyes tonight. The team desperately needs shooting and ball handling. Sheppard is the only bench option who can bring both. He should play more against teams that the double-big lineup isn’t a good match for. Give him some time. The odds of his role growing as the season goes along are high.
Steven Adams (Pick Up in 16+ team leagues) – Adams could be an elite boards streamer this year. He’s not going to top the 30-minute mark every night, but if his minutes end up in the mid-20s, he’s going to average around 10 boards per night. The rest of his line will be nonexistent, so he’s unlikely to end up as a long-term hold outside of deep leagues where specialists have more value.
Jabari Smith Jr. – Smith is likely going to end up as just a borderline player this year and will have very little value if the Rockets continue to roll with the double-big lineup. If Adams starts, Smith’s rebounds are going to tank. That would be very problematic as rebounds is the only category Smith has the potential to be a clearly above-average contributor in. There isn’t a lot of upside here. Smith is cuttable if a no-brainer free agent pickup pops up this week.
Warriors 119 Lakers 109
Jonathan Kuminga (Pick Up) – Kuminga posted the most surprising line of the night. In the past, when Kuminga has played well, he’s been efficient points, decent boards, and not much else. Tonight, he was much more than that. The threes and the dimes were a major surprise. He’s not a must-add in 12-team leagues, but he should be on our radar now. If you have a low-upside late-round pick that you are not thrilled about, it’s fine to swap that player with Kuminga. Low-upside being the key words in that sentence. Do not drop anyone with clear top-100 upside. In category leagues, Kuminga is unlikely to be a difference-maker unless his game has changed drastically over the summer. Historically, his game has been a very poor fit for category leagues. The Warrior is yet to finish inside the top 170 in nine-category setups. In points leagues, where his game is a much better fit, he should be added.
Brandin Podziemski (Hold) – This wasn’t Podziemski’s best performance, but we’ll take those minutes. If his minutes land in the low 30s, he should at least flirt with the top 100 and will have mid-round stretches. A Kuminga breakout would hurt him, but it is way, way too early to worry about that. Kuminga could easily go back to being an empty-calorie type of player next time out. We want to give Podziemski plenty of leash because the line he is capable of producing is very hard to find on the wire. There won’t be many guards available on a standard league wire who are capable of helping us in points, threes, assists, boards, and steals as much as Podziemski can. He is a must-roster in both category and points leagues.
Al Horford – If you picked up Horford for the opening night game, feel free to send him back to the wire. He’s likely going to have limited streaming value this year with Kerr talking about a minutes limit in the low 20s. In very deep leagues, I’d give him a couple more games, as he is still a decent per-minute producer, but he’ll likely end up as a cut in those setups as well.
Buddy Hield – Hield should be a very strong early-season threes streamer. He’s going to pick up some extra minutes and shots with Moses Moody and De’Anthony Melton beat up. If you grabbed him for opening night, you might as well hold for three more days, with the Warriors’ final two games of the week coming on the two-game Thursday slate and Friday. Once the Warriors are healthy, Buddy will likely play minutes in the low 20s, where he will be capable of producing about a dozen points and 2.5 3PG.
Laker Role Players – From a fantasy standpoint, the Lakers are unlikely to be very interesting this year. Until LeBron returns, it will be a two-man show with Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves. Deandre Ayton should average a double-double with solid percentages, but the two guards will be doing most of the damage. Gabe Vincent popped in preseason, but he very predictably came back down to Earth tonight. Vincent hasn’t been useful since his early days in Miami, and that is unlikely to change now. He’s just a so-so threes and steals streamer. Rui Hachimura is capable of solid runs, but he’s not a long-term hold. Grab him when the schedule makes him attractive if you need efficient points and a handful of rebounds. Marcus Smart looks like the team’s sixth man. He’s worth keeping an eye on, but at this point in his career, we should keep our expectations low. He fell off quite a bit toward the end of his time in Boston and looked washed in Memphis and Washington. Unless he finds himself in a 30 MPG, he’s unlikely to be more than a steals streamer who can chip in low-end dimes and threes.
Deandre Ayton – This was both a discouraging and encouraging night for Ayton. It was discouraging because his line was weak and he wasn’t having much of an impact on the game. Luka being an uncontested board magnet is also a concern. However, the minutes are exciting. If Ayton is going to play 34 MPG this year, it’s going to be very difficult for him to not be at least a top-40 player in friendly builds like punt threes and punt assists. Once he gets a little more comfortable with his new team, he should start scoring in the mid-teens while averaging 9.0+ RPG. We will need to keep an eye on his FT%. That is the one number in his line that is difficult to predict. Ayton has usually done a nice job at the line, but shot just 66.7 percent from the charity stripe in his final season in Portland. That number probably won’t stick. FT% has a ton of year-to-year variance at the player level and surprising drops like that from usually solid free throw shooters often prove to be one-offs.