25/26 Oct. 28 Box Score Analysis (5 Games)
Sixers 139 Wizards 134 (OT)
Adem Bona (Drop): We love the blocks, and Bona should be one of the first players we turn to when we are in need of a swats streamer, but with Drummond in the rotation, and Bona being limited even on nights when Embiid is out, we can’t roster the big man in H2H leagues. Bona is yet to play more than 18 minutes on nights when Embiid has been active, even though The Process is on a minutes limit. Through four games, Bona is playing just 17.2 MPG and is averaging 2.5 PPG, 3.0 RPG, and 2.3 BPG.
Quentin Grimes (Pick Up): What a night for Grimes. Paul George’s return will probably turn Grimes into a streamer, but until PG is at full capacity, Grimes should be rostered in 12-team leagues. He hadn’t been nearly as productive as he was last night coming into this one, but the points and threes have been solid all season long. Grimes is now averaging 17.8 PPG and 3.3 3PG. He’s a sell-high candidate, although that will be a very tough move to pull off if you play in a competitive league.
Tyrese Maxey: The top six is in play this year. He continues to look incredible and Embiid has not had much of an impact on his usage. The lone iffy spot in his line is his steal rate. Maxey has averaged just 1.0 SPG through his first four games. He’ll need to average around 1.4 SPG to be a top-six nine-category league asset this year.
VJ Edgecombe: It’s tempting to sell high. The role is amazing, but his shooting has been unsustainable, and things could get a little dicey once George and McCain are back. I wouldn’t give up Edgecombe for just any top-100 player, but I would be very tempted to move the rookie if I were offered a mid-round player. That will probably end up as a win. Once the shooting cools off and the minutes come down into the mid-30s, he’s likely going to be more of a top-80 player. However, this isn’t a situation where you absolutely need to sell. He’s going to be good, and he’s going to be very fun to roster.
Bilal Coulibaly (Pick Up): Coulibaly is set to return Thursday against the Thunder. In 12-team leagues, he’s worth a flier. Even if the role isn’t there, he should still be a decent Week 2 play since the Wizards are one of just eight teams that play on Thursday. Coulibaly could be useful this year, as he is a third-year player who is capable of producing decent numbers in all of the counting categories. However, Kyshawn George’s monster start makes him much less interesting than he was a month ago. It’s very hard to see the Wizards limiting George for Coulibaly, even though Bilal was seen as the superior prospect after last season. Coulibaly will need to pull minutes away from Khris Middleton, Corey Kispert, and Cam Whitmore. He should be able to do that, but he might not hit 30 MPG, which is about what he needs to be worth a roster spot in 12-team leagues. In points leagues, he should be added. Bilal has more value in that setting because he comes with a double-percentages hit. In 14+ team category leagues, he is also a must-grab.
Bub Carrington: A nice line from Carrington and the minutes were great, although they were made possible by this game going into overtime. The second-year man remains just an assists and steals streamer in 12-team leagues. He’s had a very forgettable start to his second year in the association and the minutes have been in the mid-20s most nights. Over his first four appearances, Bub is playing 29.7 MPG and is averaging just 8.0 PPG on 34.5 FG%, 1.5 3PG, 4.0 RPG, 3.8 APG, and 1.5 SPG. He is also a good bet to lose minutes to Tre Johnson as the year goes along.
Tre Johnson (Pick Up/Hold): Lines like this are why Johnson probably won’t be more than a back-end player this year. When his shot is off, he’s not going to give us much. He’s going to be a zero in steals and won’t do much in assists. He’s averaging just 2.0 APG and 0.3 SPG this year. That lines up with what he did at Texas. As a freshman, Johnson managed just 2.7 APG and 0.9 SPG in 34.7 MPG. Hold for now, but don’t be surprised if he becomes droppable later in the season.
Heat 144 Hornets 117
Jaime Jaquez Jr. (Pick Up): Add and see where this goes. Jaquez has been one of the biggest surprises of the first eight days of the season. He looks incredible and Spo has been rewarding him with some solid minutes. Herro could bring the party to an end, but that’s something we’ll worry about when we have to. Through four games, Jaquez is producing top-45 numbers that include averages of 18.8 PPG on 68.9 FG%, 0.5 3PG, 6.3 RPG, 4.3 APG, and 1.3 SPG. If he ends up playing 28 MPG this year and shoots around 50 percent from the field (he shot 48.9 percent as a rookie), Jaquez could end up as a borderline top-100 asset.
Pelle Larsson: Larsson is going to get at least one more start, so if you need points, threes, and a steal on Thursday (a four-game day), give the guard a look. He’s probably not going to repeat last night’s performance, but 12 points, two threes, and a steal is doable. Once Powell returns, Larsson will be an easy drop. Larsson played a total of 17 minutes over the Heat’s first three games.
Ryan Kalkbrenner (Pick Up/Hold): Kalkbrenner’s big start doesn’t feel sustainable because it’s been made possible by some absurd shooting (90.5 FG%). Yes, he’s a center who is taking almost all of his shots around the rim, but that’s still a ridiculous connection rate. However, for now, I would hold. The rookie getting 12 more minutes than Diabate last night is a very good sign. Thanks to his goofy shooting and some good work on the boards (7.3 RPG) and in the defensive categories (1.0 SPG, 1.0 BPG), Kalkbrenner is ranked inside the top-70 in nine-category leagues. Once the shooting cools off, he’ll likely settle in as a back-end 12-team piece.
Kon Knueppel (Pick Up in 14+ team leagues): Great stuff from the rookie who should receive a solid bump in minutes and touches while Brandon Miller is sidelined. Collin Sexton is a must-add in 12-team leagues and the priority add on the Hornets. However, Knueppel is worth considering too if you need threes, at least for this week. He’s not a must in 12-team setups, but with the Hornets starting a stretch of three games in four nights on Thursday, he is a nice schedule play. Knueppel probably won’t be more than a 12-team streamer this year. He’s ranked inside the top 110 right now in nine-category setups, but that is due to some unsustainable shooting both from the floor (52.3 FG%) and from deep (53.3 3P%). If he shoots even 45 percent from the field and 39 percent from three, he’ll be more of a top-175 nine-category asset due to all of the holes in his line.
Bucks 121 Knicks 111
Kyle Kuzma (Drop): I’m not sure why Kuzma is still rostered in 21 percent of Yahoo leagues. He’s a drop in leagues of all sizes, even those of the points league variety. The minutes just aren’t there this year. He needs a Giannis injury to have any shot at being useful. Through three games, Kuzma is playing just 20.2 MPG and is averaging just 8.3 PPG on 52.9 FG%, 0.0 3PG, 4.0 RPG, 1.3 APG, 1.0 SPG, and 1.0 BPG.
Bobby Portis: This is a trickier situation than the Kuzma one. Portis’ minutes have been in the 20s twice, but he’s gotten stuck in the teens twice as well. In 12-team leagues, he’s not a must-drop, as things could trend up, but I also wouldn’t prioritize him over a player who looks like they are about to rip off a top-100 season. In 14-team category leagues, I would hold. There is too much upside here to give up on Portis after a few quiet games. In 12-team points leagues, I would also try to hold. He can be useful in that setting in just 21 MPG. Portis is also a must in all Roto leagues. He will post some early-round lines this year when Giannis sits.
Ryan Rollins (Pick Up): Another gem for Rollins. It doesn’t sound like KPJ is going to miss as much time as originally expected, but it doesn’t sound like he’s on the verge of a return either. Rollins could get a few more starts before he heads back to the bench. Until then, he is a must-roster and must-start in all leagues. Over his three starts, the point guard has averaged 15.3 PPG on 47.6 FG%, 1.8 3PG, 4.3 APG, and 3.0 SPG. Give him a couple of games after KPJ’s return before making the drop decision. The Bucks are very thin in the backcourt this year. It’s possible he carves out a high-20s role with KPJ in the lineup. Rollins is a strong enough per-minute producer to be useful in a role of that size.
Josh Hart (Hold/Buy Low): We should give Hart plenty of leash. We have to remember that this is a player who missed almost all of camp and preseason. He’s about a month behind most of the league. The early returns have not been promising, but we shouldn’t do anything rash. Hart has no shot at replicating last year’s numbers unless the Knicks run into massive injury issues, but a top-100 finish and top-80 finish in friendly builds like punt threes is possible if he can lock down at least a 28 MPG and produce his usual per-minute numbers. I would inquire about his price. You probably can’t get him for a low-end piece if the Knick was taken somewhere around the sixth, but if he went in the eighth or the ninth, his price tag could be very low. Through three games, Hart is managing an ugly 3.7 PPG, 7.7 RPG, 4.0 APG, and 1.0 SPG.
Karl-Anthony Towns: The so-so start to the season is all about the shooting. Towns’ minutes are exactly where we’d expect them to be (33.8 MPG), and while his usage is down a touch, it’s not sitting at a particularly worrisome level (24.1 USG%). It’s also a good bet to rise once he starts connecting on half of his shot attempts. I’d call him a buy-low, but no one who knows what they are doing is going to sell KAT at a discount because of an early-season shooting slump. He still looks like he’s on pace to be at least a borderline top-15 eight- and nine-category option.
Landry Shamet: McBride was out for this one, so we shouldn’t read too much into the big night. Before last night, Shamet had not played more than 16 minutes in a game. He’s fine to use as a threes streamer on nights when he’s part of the starting five, but on any other night, you should have better sources of triples available to you.
Thunder 107 Kings 101
Cason Wallace (Hold): Wallace hasn’t been able to put together a solid offensive outing since his monster opener against the Rockets. He remains a must-hold. He’s never going to be a top option on the offensive end, but we should see his efficiency increase significantly. He’s currently shooting just 31.4 percent from the floor. In 2024-2025, he shot a much more respectable 47.4 percent, and that number trended up as the year went along. If he gets dropped by an impatient manager, scoop him up immediately if you play in a category league. In points leagues, he’s just a streamer. Wallace will likely be just a top-150 player in that setting once his shooting normalizes.
Aaron Wiggins (Pick Up in 14+ team leagues): The defensive contributions are a fluke, but the offensive output is not a surprise given who was missing from the Thunder’s lineup last night. Until J Dub is back, Wiggins should do enough in points and threes to be worth a roster spot in 14+ team leagues. Through five games, Wiggins is posting top-100 numbers and is averaging 14.2 PPG on 45.0 FG%, 2.6 3PG, 4.8 RPG, 2.4 APG, 0.2 SPG, and 0.8 BPG. In 12-team leagues, he’s just a schedule play.
Ajay Mitchell (Pick Up/Hold): An empty line from Mitchell, but the minutes were solid and the usage was excellent. What he’s doing is not sustainable and he’s going to turn into a pumpkin once J Dub is healthy, but for now, Mitchell needs to be rostered in 12-team leagues. You can’t drop a player who has been a top-60 player up to this point. The backup guard is currently averaging 18.2 PPG on 47.3 FG%, 1.6 3PG, 3.8 RPG, 3.0 APG, and 1.2 SPG in just 26.6 MPG. It’s possible he maintains 14+ team relevancy once Williams is healthy. However, to do that, his per-minute numbers would need to continue to be elite. Mitchell is a good player, but that likely won’t happen. He was a forgettable per-minute producer as a rookie.
Russell Westbrook (Pick Up): The start makes Westbrook a must-grab in 12-team leagues. He’ll almost certainly lose his spot once Keegan Murray returns, but that’s something to worry about when it happens. In category leagues, he’s not a must, but if you are in need of a popcorn stats boost and don’t mind taking on a double-percentages hit, he’s worth considering. Westbrook can still produce helpful numbers in points, rebounds, assists, and steals when given heavy run. Over his four appearances for the Kings, he’s needed just 23.4 MPG to average 11.8 PPG on 41.5 FG% and 44.4 FT%, 2.3 3PG, 5.5 RPG, 3.8 APG, and 0.8 SPG. The threes are not real. The former MVP is currently shooting an unsustainable 50.0 percent from deep.
Keon Ellis (Pick Up in 14+ team leagues): 27 minutes is very interesting. If he stays in that range, he’ll be a must in all category leagues. However, until we see a repeat of last night’s minutes, we should be very careful with the King. It’s fine to throw Ellis into your streaming spot to see what happens, but I would not drop anyone safe for him. The minutes could disappear overnight. Before yesterday, Ellis had not topped the 18-minute mark in a game. In deep leagues, he is a must-roster despite the fluctuating minutes. He has the potential to be a difference-maker in deeper formats, so we need to hold him as long as the Kings’ rotation is in flux. In points leagues, he can be ignored. He has very little upside in that format.
Warriors 98 Clippers 79
Brandin Podziemski (Pick Up/Hold): The usual from Kerr. We’re five games in and he’s already doing plenty of tinkering with his lineups. It looks like Podz’s role is going to fluctuate from night to night. That’s not ideal, but it doesn’t make him a drop. He’s been producing at a 12-team level up to this point. We also have to consider who is ahead of him in the rotation. Steph Curry is 37 and Jimmy Butler is one of the most fragile players in the league. Jimmy is a lock to miss significant time this year and Steph will probably have a stretch or two where he’s sidelined. When one of the top two is sitting, Podziemski’s minutes and touches should go through the roof. Those who are patient with the combo guard will likely be rewarded eventually. Through five games, Podziemski is producing top-115 numbers that include averages of 12.2 PPG, 2.2 3PG,4.6 RPG, 2.6 APG, and 1.2 SPG.
Jonathan Kuminga (Hold): I don’t trust him at all, but given what we’ve seen up to this point, we should give the forward some leash. Even with this dud included, Kuminga is still ranked inside the top 100 in nine-category leagues. That ranking is tied to some unsustainable shooting, so he’s not going to stay in that range, but it does look like a top-100 finish in friendly builds like punt FT% and punt steals is in play, which is not something anyone expected coming into the year. Kuminga managers should hope that the Warriors continue to roll. If the team slumps, Kerr could start yanking Kuminga around like he has in prior seasons. In points leagues, as long as Kuminga continues to play 29+ MPG, he should be a top-100 player.
John Collins: Three of the four Clipper games have been blowouts, so it’s been a little tricky to get a handle on the team’s rotation. However, it does continue to look like Collins is going to get squeezed. He played a little more than usual in the first half, but then was limited in the second half and only got to 23 because he picked up a few garbage-time minutes. Collins can be a hold in 26 MPG, as he’s a very strong per-minute player, but it looks like minutes in that range may not happen. He’s sitting at 25.4 MPG, but would likely be in the 22 MPG range if the Clippers’ early-season games were more competitive. Try to sell him after his next big game, if you haven’t already, for a borderline top-100 player.
Bradley Beal (Drop): Beal sat out this game with back soreness. He’s fine to hold in an IL spot, but if he’s costing you games, I would feel very comfortable moving on in 12-team leagues. There isn’t enough upside here to justify a hold through stretches where he’s sidelined. When the Clippers are somewhat healthy, it’s hard to picture how Beal becomes more than a borderline top-100 player, and that’s if he can eventually get into the 30 MPG range. Minutes in that range may not be on the table, given his health issues and the team’s depth. It’s possible his minutes top out in the mid-20s this year. In 14-team leagues, I would hold for now, although if you don’t play in a league with IL+ spots, rostering the veteran could hurt you more than it will help you.