25/26 Mar. 30 Box Score Analysis (8 Games)
Heat 119 Sixers 109
Kel’el Ware (Drop): If this is your final week, I would drop Ware for a safer option. This was his second low-minute game in a row and that streak will likely extend to three with Boston up next. The Celtics are a team that are difficult to go big against, especially with Tatum back. The last time the Heat played Boston, Ware didn’t even hit the 10-minute mark. After the Celtics’ game on Wednesday, the Heat have just one game left in Week 23 and it doesn’t come until Saturday. Ware is unlikely to see an expanded role in Week 24 with the Heat having no room for error if they want to sneak into the 7/8 play-in game.
Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Jaquez and all of the other Heat role players will be drops after Wednesday in H2H leagues that end this week. Jaquez and Wiggins, and to a lesser extent Mitchell and Larsson, are still capable of posting useful lines, but none are worth holding through a stretch of one game in four nights. During the final week of the season, when we will see the Heat four times, Jaquez and Wiggins will be adds again, and Mitchell and Larsson will be deep league pickups.
Kelly Oubre (Pick Up): Oubre came off the bench for the second straight game. It’s unclear if he’ll continue to be a reserve once he’s further removed from his elbow sprain. However, it doesn’t really matter. All that matters is that if the minutes continue to land in the 30s. Going off of last night, it looks like they will. In a 30+ MPG role, Oubre should be a back-end 12-team piece who helps us win points, threes, rebounds, and steals. If he was dropped, he should be added with the Sixers having three games left this week. Two of those games being part of a back-to-back set is not a major concern. There’s no reason to rest him given the nature of his injury.
Quentin Grimes: Solid minutes for Grimes, but with Maxey, Embiid, George, and Oubre all healthy, Grimes’ usage rate isn’t going to be high enough to keep him in the 12-team conversation. The value of some players can survive hefty usage rate drops, but Grimes’ value can’t since almost all of his value is in the scoring categories. As long as the Sixers are healthy, he should be viewed as just a forgettable points and threes streamer in 12-team setups. He is not a must in 14-team leagues either.
Hawks 112 Celtics 102
Jonathan Kuminga (Drop): This is a decent line thanks to the blocks, but not something that should get our attention, even in 16-team leagues. Kuminga has zero upside in his current 20-minute role and isn’t going to see a jump in minutes next week with the Hawks still having plenty to play for. Atlanta will need to play their regulars until the final day of the season if they want to stay out of the play-in. Over his last six, in 20.2 MPG, Kuminga has put up just 9.2 PPG on 38.5 FG%, 1.2 3PG, 4.5 RPG, 2.0 APG, and 0.7 SPG.
Jordan Walsh: Walsh has been the main beneficiary of the Celtics’ resting their top options during their Sunday/Monday back-to-back set. He played 31 minutes in this game and played 33 against the Hornets on Sunday. With all of the starters and Pritchard likely to be active on Wednesday against the Heat, Walsh can be ignored in all leagues. He’s a DNP-CD candidate anytime the Celtics are close to full strength. If he gets a start in Week 24 due to additional rest days, he’ll be a quality boards and steals streamer.
Luka Garza: The big line is not a major surprise. Garza is a very strong per-minute producer. Unfortunately, when Queta plays—and he will on Wednesday—Garza’s minutes get stuck in the low-to-mid-teens, where he is not a viable streamer. He’s just someone to keep in mind for next week if the Celtics rest Queta again. When he’s playing big minutes, Garza can help us win points, threes, rebounds, and FG%. He’s currently producing 17.4 PP36 on 58.6 FG%, 1.7 3P36, 8.9 RP36, and 0.9 BP36.
Suns 131 Grizzlies 105
Dillon Brooks (Pick Up): Brooks didn’t play in this contest, but will return tonight against the Magic. With three games left this week, he’s a reasonable add if you need points, threes, steals, and FT% impact, and don’t mind taking on a good-sized FG% hit. Before going down, the swingman was averaging 20.9 PPG on 44.0 FG%, 2.3 3PG, 3.7 RPG, and 1.0 SPG while shooting 85.6 FT% on 3.8 FTA. The Suns’ final three games of the week come tonight, on Thursday, and on Sunday.
Collin Gillespie: Hold Gillespie for tonight and see what his role looks like with the Suns’ backcourt finally being healthy. If his minutes fall into the mid-20s, he’ll be very expendable. In a role of that size, he likely won’t be worth holding from Wednesday to Saturday when the Suns will only play just once. The Suns’ final game of the week being on Sunday is also an issue. There are 11 games on Sunday and you may not have a starting spot for the guard.
Jahmai Mashack: Back-to-back 30+ minutes games for Mashack. He’s not the safest option, but in deeper leagues, where we can’t always play it safe, he’s worth a gamble if you need top-end steals that could be accompanied by a decent number in points. Mashack has averaged 1.2 SPG in just 19.9 MPG this year. In a 30 MPG role, he could be a 2.0 SPG type over the next two weeks. Mashack and the Grizzlies play three more games this week. Those games come on Wednesday, Friday, and Sunday.
G.G. Jackson: I wouldn’t bother with Jackson at this point. The minutes are trending in the wrong direction fairly rapidly. The forward played just 17 minutes last night, and on Saturday against the Bulls, he was on the court for just 21 minutes. Jackson is also not producing a useful line. He’s just a points specialist who gives us very little outside of his best category. Over his last seven, in 25.4 MPG, Jackson has not been a top-200 player despite averaging 17.0 PPG because he’s done absolutely nothing elsewhere.
Spurs 129 Bulls 114
Dylan Harper (Pick Up): Good stuff from the rookie in the first of four Week 23 Spurs games. Harper is an add in 12-team leagues for the schedule, efficient scoring numbers, and dimes. He has three more quality games this week and has been a top-60 player over the last two weeks with averages of 14.6 PPG on 58.3 FG%, 1.9 3PG, 4.3 RPG, 4.3 APG, and 0.6 BPG.
Keldon Johnson: The Spurs’ excellent remaining Week 23 schedule makes even their low-end role players viable in most leagues. If you have a full roster on one or two of Friday or Sunday, Johnson could be one of your better options due to the Spurs playing on Thursday and Saturday. Johnson’s role has shrunk as the season has moved along, but he remains a very efficient source of points who can also help out from deep. Over the last two weeks, the forward has averaged 16.4 PPG on 55.4 FG%, 1.7 3PG, 3.4 RPG, and 2.3 APG.
Leonard Miller (Pick Up): Miller has established himself as a solid back-end asset in 12-team leagues. He’s a strong per-minute producer, so his minutes getting stuck in the mid-20s is not an issue. He’s an add if you need points, threes, rebounds, and/or FG%. Over his last seven appearances, the Bull has averaged 13.7 PPG on 52.7 FG%, 1.4 3PG, 5.9 RPG, 1.3 APG, 0.4 SPG, and 0.1 BPG.
Collin Sexton (Pick Up): Sexton continues to look like a good fit in Chicago. He’s not playing a ton, but he is playing very well and is worth an add if you need a boost in both the scoring categories and the percentages. Over the last month, in just 26.3 MPG, Sexton has been a top-50 nine-category asset thanks to averages of 21.1 PPG on 52.4 FG% and 82.0 FT%, 2.9 3PG, 3.0 APG, and 1.2 SPG.
Wolves 124 Mavericks 94
Ayo Dosunmu: With McDaniels week-to-week, Dosunmu should be worth a roster spot in 12-team leagues for the remainder of the regular season. This will end up as his best game of the year, but even with Ant back, Ayo should do enough in points, assists, and the percentages to be useful. He should still be able to score in the mid-teens while giving us three or four dimes and shooting close to 50 percent from the floor and 85 percent from the line. Minnesota is now off until Thursday when they start a stretch of three games in four nights.
Naz Reid: If it weren’t for the Wolves’ strong Thursday-to-Sunday schedule, Reid would be a clear drop in 12-team leagues. He’s struggled quite a bit since the beginning of February and has barely been a top-250 player over the last month. In Roto, I would be dropping for a player who can be started at the moment. It’s unlikely that Reid gets unleashed in Week 24. The Wolves probably won’t be able to rest their top options, with the middle of the West being so tight.
Daniel Gafford (Pick Up): In what is a bit of a surprise, Gafford is not on the injury report for tonight’s game against the Bucks. We’ll need to watch out for a last-minute downgrade, but if he does play, he’ll be an add for any team in need of big numbers. Gafford has turned back into a per-minute monster and could be an early-round per-game asset in friendly builds over the final two weeks of the season. Over his last 10 games, Gafford has averaged 15.9 PPG on 73.6 FG%, 9.7 RPG, and 0.8 BPG in just 24.8 MPG.
Brandon Williams: Williams started the second half for Nembhard and ended up posting a very juicy line. He is not a must in 12- or 14-team leagues, as he’s been just a two-category player for a while now, but if you need points and assists this week, you could do worse than the Mavericks, who still has three games left in Week 23. Over his last 12, in 21.0 MPG, Williams has averaged 12.0 PPG on 43.8 FG%, 0.5 3PG, 3.2 RPG, 3.8 APG, and 0.5 SPG.
Cavaliers 122 Jazz 113
Keon Ellis: The Cavaliers opted to start Ellis with Jarrett Allen getting a rest day. Both Allen and Strus will be back tonight, so there’s no need to add Ellis anywhere. He had a nice run in early March, but is now stuck in a low-20s role, where he is just a forgettable steals streamer. Over the last two weeks, Ellis has produced just 9.3 PPG on 52.3 FG%, 0.9 3PG, 2.0 RPG, 1.3 APG, 1.4 SPG, and 0.4 BPG.
Sam Merrill: Merrill is a viable add in deeper leagues with the Cavaliers having three games left and two of those games coming on Tuesday and Thursday. In deeper leagues, he could be the top source of threes potentially available on the wire. He continues to start for the Cavaliers and is a good bet for 2.5 3PG anytime he steps on the court. Over his last seven, in 29.7 MPG, Merrill has averaged 14.4 PPG on 43.8 FG%, 2.4 3PG, 4.3 RPG, 2.7 APG, and 0.6 SPG. He’s safe to ignore if you don’t need triples or play in a points league.
Kennedy Chandler (Pick Up): This is not a great line, but if Chandler is going to play huge minutes this week, he should be rostered in 12-team leagues. Whether or not he does will come down to Harkless’ health and if the Jazz decide to rest some of their other starters. In a big-minute role, Chandler can give us a poor man’s version of Daniss Jenkins’ line. He’s going to come with a material FG% hit, but he can help us win most of the guard categories. Through six games, Chandler is averaging 14.2 PPG on 43.1 FG%, 1.3 3PG, 3.2 RPG, 6.8 APG, 1.0 SPG, and 2.3 TOPG.
Cody Williams (Pick Up): Williams continues to be an underwhelming per-minute producer, but as long as the Jazz continue to feed him minutes, it won’t matter that much. He’s still not a great option in Roto, as his overall value will be limited by his weak three-ball and poor FT%, but in H2H leagues, he is fairly useful due to his ability to produce low-end, but helpful numbers in most of the counting categories. Over the last month, in 31.8 MPG, Williams has averaged 14.8 PPG on 49.5 FG%, 0.6 3PG, 3.9 RPG, 3.8 APG, and 1.1 SPG. Utah has three games left this week. Those games come on Wednesday, Friday, and Sunday.
Thunder 114 Pistons 110 (OT)
Ajay Mitchell: Mitchell got some extra run due to J Dub and Hartenstein being out and the game going into overtime. Most nights, Mitchell’s minutes end up around 26, where he is a 12-team asset, but not a high-upside one. The Thunder’s schedule makes Mitchell a drop in leagues that end this week. The team has just two games left this week and only one comes before Sunday. That means we will see Mitchell just once over the next five days.
Jaylin Williams: Williams is somone to keep in mind in Roto leagues and in H2H leagues that play until the buzzer. He won’t have much value this week due to the Thunder’s schedule, but he could post a couple of big lines in Week 24 once the Thunder lock in the West’s top seed. Oklahoma City is currently 2.5 games up on the Spurs. Chet and Hartenstein should rest next week, which will give Williams a shot at 30+ minutes. On nights when he’s getting extended run, Williams can be a very nice source of rebounds who can also help out from deep and in blocks. Williams is currently producing 2.8 3P36, 10.0 RP36, and 1.2 BP36. He’s also a sneaky good passer for a player at his position (4.4 AP36).
Paul Reed: This was a very predictable big night for Reed. The big man is always a great bet for an early-round line on nights when he’s playing big minutes. If Duren sits again, and he likely will next week once the Pistons clinch the top seed in the East, Reed will be an automatic stream. As a starter this year, Reed is averaging 14.7 PPG on 59.1 FG%, 0.6 3PG, 8.0 RPG, 3.3 APG, 2.0 SPG, and 2.0 BPG in 28.4 MPG. On nights when Duren is active, Reed will play minutes in the mid-teens. When both Duren and Stewart are active, Reed will play just a handful of minutes and will be a DNP-CD candidate.
Kevin Huerter: The big night was made possible by the Pistons resting Tobias Harris and Duncan Robinson. The Pistons do have a great schedule this week, as the rest of their games come on the quiet days, but unless you have a full roster on Wednesday, Friday, and Sunday, or play in an extremely deep league, you shouldn’t bother with Huerter. On nights when he comes off the bench, Huerter gives us about 10.0 PPG, 1.5 3PG, and 1.0 SPG.
Lakers 120 Wizards 101
Jaxson Hayes (Pick Up): Yet another big night for Hayes, who has been comfortably outplaying Deandre Ayton as of late. Redick has noticed and has started to shift more of Ayton’s minutes to Hayes. The backup big man has now hit the 20-minute mark in four straight outings. If you need big man stats this week, he’s a great option. Since his minutes jumped four games ago, Hayes has averaged an absurd 15.3 PPG on 88.9 FG%, 7.0 RPG, 1.0 SPG, and 3.3 BPG.
Justin Champagnie: An early-round line from Champagnie. We should continue to be very careful with the forward. The Wizards’ rotation is very hard to trust and Champagnie’s role has been particularly volatile. He’s played at least 24 minutes in three straight games, but prior to that stretch, he was picking up DNP-CDs just about every other night. I would only consider Champagnie as a one-game streamer and someone who should only be added after he’s been confirmed as a starter. Since getting back into the rotation three games ago, Champagnie has averaged 11.3 PPG on 53.6 FG%, 0.7 3PG, 2.7 RPG, 2.0 APG, 0.3 SPG, and 0.3 BPG.
Anthony Gill: That’s a lot of minutes for Gill. Those in 16+ team leagues should keep an eye on Gill. If he starts playing 30+ MPG consistently, he would end up as a solid source of both rebounds and steals. He’s currently producing 6.3 RP36 and 1.3 SP36. Deep league managers should hold off on adding for now due to the Wizards’ schedule. Washington plays on Wednesday and then are off until Saturday when they begin a back-to-back set in Miami.