25/26 Feb. 23 Box Score Analysis (3 Games)
Spurs 114 Pistons 103
Julian Champagnie: The Spurs rolled with a playoff rotation in this game, which led to more minutes than usual for Champagnie. If he starts to play 30+ MPG again, he’ll be a 12-team add, but until we see minutes in that range consistently, Champagnie will be just a shaky deep league option with a low nightly floor. Over the five games leading up to this contest, Champagnie played 15, 18, 20, 22, and 28 minutes. If he hits the 30-minute mark during the Spurs’ back-to-back set against the Nets and Raptors that starts on Wednesday, then we can get excited. Over the last month, the forward has averaged a forgettable 8.9 PPG on 41.8 FG%, 1.8 3PG, 4.6 RPG, 1.3 APG, 0.4 SPG, and 0.5 BPG.
Devin Vassell: Same deal as Champagnie. Vassell benefited from the Spurs taking this game more seriously than they take most regular season games. The swingman is likely going to have a huge role in the playoffs for San Antonio, but like Champagnie, his minutes are going to be somewhat limited down the stretch of the fantasy calendar. After this 36-minute outing, he’s sitting at 27.2 MPG over the last 30 days. Over that span, he’s been just a borderline top-200 nine-category player and hasn’t produced anything that can’t be easily found on a 12-team wire. In 12-team leagues, Vassell is just a streamer. In 14-team leagues, he is a hold who will be droppable once the fantasy playoffs start.
Tobias Harris (Hold): A very forgettable night on the offensive end for Tobias, which was also the case for every Pistons starter not named Jalen Duren. While Harris hasn’t been blowing away expectations, he has done enough to be worthy of a spot on someone’s roster in 12-team leagues. Even with this dud factored in, the veteran has been a top-90 nine-category option over the last 30 days. Over that span, he has produced 13.3 PPG on 43.1 FG%, 1.5 3PG, 6.5 RPG, 2.2 APG, and 1.2 SPG in 29.7 MPG. While his production has been fine, what really makes Harris interesting in shallower settings is the Pistons’ end-of-season schedule. From Week 18 until the end of the season, the Pistons only have one three-game week. Every other week, we will see Detroit four times. Only the Grizzlies, Clippers, and Magic will play as many games as the Pistons from Week 19 onward.
Ausar Thompson: Thompson has been playing at a high level for a couple of months now, but games like this are still going to happen down the stretch. His role is still shaky, and that gives him a low floor, especially against stronger teams. While Thompson will be a frustrating hold, he will be a must in all leagues the rest of the way due to his upside and the Pistons’ schedule. Even if he has the odd 20-minute night, he’ll still produce solid numbers on a totals basis due to Detroit’s elite schedule. Over the last month, Thompson has been a top-70 nine-category asset thanks to an incredible steal rate (2.5 SPG) and some solid numbers in boards (5.5 RPG), assists (3.5 APG), and FG% (50.0 FG%).
Kings 123 Grizzlies 114
Kings Top Options: The minutes distribution on the Kings’ side in this game was downright shocking. For some reason, after a couple weeks worth of games where the Kings were clearly limiting their top option to pick up some extra losses, the team decided to go for the win against a very beatable opponent. It’s the Kings, so anything is possible, but I would not expect tonight to be a sign of things to come. I would be trying to move Westbrook and DeRozan for anything useful. And by useful, I mean any player who is a lock to be a hold in mid-March. I doubt you can do better at this point. Murray is the one Kings top option that is difficult to predict. It’s easier to picture the Kings letting him play late in the year, as unlike Westbrook and DeMar, he could benefit from the extra reps as a top option. If you can swap Murray for a top-80 player, I’d likely make that move. If you can’t get a player in that range, I would likely just hold and see how things play out.
Nique Clifford (Pick Up in 14+ team leagues): A monster night for Clifford. He’s fine to add in 12-team leagues, but I wouldn’t drop anyone safe for him. Before this explosion against a weak opponent, he was not producing top-200 numbers. Clifford is interesting because if the shooting comes around, he would be a 12-team player down the stretch, assuming the Kings play him close to 30 MPG. The rookie had a fantasy-friendly game in college and is capable of producing a well-rounded line. Over the last 30 days, Clifford has averaged 11.2 PPG on 39.0 FG%, 1.4 3PG, 4.1 RPG, 3.2 APG, 1.5 SPG, and 1.9 TOPG.
Precious Achiuwa (Pick Up): This was the second time in three games that Precious posted a first-round line in 30+ minutes. That’s enough to make him worth a flier in 12-team leagues. With the Kings’ center rotation in shambles and De’Andre Hunter out for the year, there is a path to solid minutes for Achiuwa. If he can eventually lock down a high-20s role, he will likely do enough in rebounds and the defensive categories to be a solid piece at the end of 12-team benches. Over his last four, in 25.9 MPG, Achiuwa has put up 14.0 PPG on 63.4 FG%, 7.5 RPG, 1.8 SPG, and 1.0 BPG.
Ty Jerome: Jerome not playing in this game is a scary sign. The sit makes it clear that the Grizzlies are going to limit him down the stretch. In IL+ leagues, that’s not a huge issue, as the constant GTD tags can actually work in your favor and allow you to play 14 on 13 or 15 on 13, but in leagues with traditiona IL spots, the missed games are a huge issue. Week 20 is looking especially problematic in such leagues. That week, the Grizzlies have two back-to-back sets. Given what we’ve seen since Jerome returned, the combo guard is going to play is going to play—at most—two games that week. In IL leagues, that will make him a waste of a roster spot during what will be a playoff week in many leagues. If you have Jerome, consider putting him on the block. If you can get a decent player with a strong playoff schedule who isn’t a rest risk, that move should end up being a W.
Olivier Maxence Prosper (Pick Up): OMP is on a two-way contract, but that shouldn’t stop you from adding. He still has 10 games left and the Grizzlies are likely to convert him to a standard contract eventually given their issues at the five. The former first-round pick has earned a full contract. He’s been good for the Grizzlies, and even better for fantasy managers over the last couple of weeks. Over his last five, in 25.8 MPG, the Canadian has averaged 17.6 PPG on an unsustainble 71.4 FG%, 2.0 3PG, 4.2 RPG, and 1.4 SPG. Those top-30 numbers are not even close to sustainble, but it is clear that he has the ability to be a 12-team piece as long as the minutes continue to be there. The Grizzlies’ schedule gives him a solid ceiling. From Week 19 until the end of the season, no team has more games than the Grizzlies.
Rockets 125 Jazz 105
Reed Sheppard: Sheppard should be held in all leagues due to the Rockets’ schedule. As mentioned in the Week 18 preview, Houston is one of the only four-game teams that have three of their games on the quiet days this week. This was one of them and they still have two left. Add or holding the guard is one of the best ways to pick up extra games this week. In 12-team leagues, Sheppard is just a borderline option. He’ll be someone to hold in the fantasy playoffs during weeks when the Rockets play four times and someone to drop during three-game weeks. Over the last month, the second-year man has been just a borderline top-150 nine-category asset with averages of 11.2 PPG on 39.0 FG%, 2.1 3PG, 3.0 RPG, 2.6 APG, and 1.3 SPG.
Jabari Smith: The KD comments don’t seem to be bothering Smith too much. He’s in the midst of an early-round run. After this massive night, only 12 players have been more productive in nine-category leagues over the last 30 days. Usually, when a player like Smith goes on a heater like this, he becomes a clear sell-high. However, since no one is giving you a top-50 player for Jabari Smith, it’s best to just hold and hope he stays hot. He could be close to a top-50 player on a totals basis down the stretch. The stretch big is now producing top-75 numbers on the year and the Rockets’ playoff schedule is very strong in all settings.
Kyle Filipowski (Pick Up): The minutes weren’t there tonight, but they should be down the stretch with Nurkic now done for the year. Filipowski is now the clear top dog at the five and needs to be added in all leagues. In a featured role, he comes with a fairly high ceiling, especially in points leagues where popcorn numbers matter more. Over the last month, in just 21.8 MPG, Filipowski has been a top-90 nine-category asset. In points leagues, he’s been in a similar range. Over that span, the second-year big has averaged 12.1 PPG on 58.8 FG%, 0.9 3PG, 8.2 RPG, 2.4 APG, and 1.8 SPG. The efficiency and steals won’t hold, but the increase in minutes will more than offset the inevitable regression in both areas.
Brice Sensabaugh (Pick Up in 14+ team leagues): Sensabaugh should be near the top of your wishlist anytime you need a points and threes streamer in 12-team leagues and is worth a long-term hold in 14-team setups. He’s not going to do much besides score and hit from deep, but he will contribute more in his best two categories than most scoring category streamers. Over his last 13, in 25.8 MPG, Sensabaugh has given us 16.8 PPG on 46.6 FG%, 2.6 3PG, 2.8 RPG, 1.7 APG, and 0.5 SPG.