24/25 Jan. 14 Box Score Analysis (7 Games)
Cavaliers 127 Pacers 117
Caris LeVert: The minutes are interesting and the non-scoring numbers were great. However, unless we see LeVert establish himself as the clear 5th-man on the roster, we don’t need to pay much attention to him outside of very deep leagues. LeVert, Strus, and Wade are all playing a similar amount these days. To get back into the standard league conversation, LeVert needs to start to pull a few minutes from his fellow wings. That probably won’t happen with the Cavaliers rolling along. His best path to 12-team relevancy remains an injury to Mitchell or Garland. Over the last month, in 23.5 MPG, LeVert has averaged 9.8 PPG on 40.7 FG%, 1.9 3PG, 3.2 APG, and 1.0 SPG.
T.J. McConnell (Pick Up): A decent line from McConnell but the minutes are disappointing. Usually, he plays a little more when Haliburton sits. I would give him another game or two. It’s possible the low minutes were due to who was on the other end. If his minutes get into the 24 MPG range on nights when the Pacers are not facing two All-Star guards, McConnell should be a top-100 asset. In a 24 MPG role, McConnell would give us about 12.0 PPG, 5.5 APG, and 1.3 SPG while being a solid source of out-of-position FG% impact (53.7 FG%).
Bennedict Mathurnin (Pick Up): Like McConnell, Mathurin is just a short-term play. He’s reverted back to the player we saw over his first two seasons in the league, but with the Pacers’ lead guard out, his usage should increase enough to make him a helpful piece in all leagues. Until Haliburton gets healthy, Mathurin should score in the mid-to-high-teens while averaging 1.5+ 3PG and 5.0+ RPG. Once Haliburton is back, Mathurin will be just a borderline 14-team league option and a points streamer in 12-team setups.
Thunder 118 Sixers 102
Cason Wallace (Pick Up): Another big-minute night for Wallace, this time with Alex Caruso in the lineup. He’s a must-add in 12-team leagues in Week 12 due to the Thunder’s elite remaining schedule. OKC is one of just three teams with three games left this week that are not a part of tonight’s 11-game slate. Whether or not he remains a must-add after this week will depend on what his minutes look like with Caruso back. If he stays in the 30 MPG range, he’ll be a must-hold. If we start seeing the odd low-20s night, then he’ll go back to being more of a steals streamer than a clear 12-team asset.
Alex Caruso (Watch): Caruso is worth keeping an eye on given his upside, but at this point, there have been no signs that a significant role is on the table. It is looking like Cason Wallace will be what we thought Caruso would be. Caruso’s nine-category ranking will look nice due to the swipes, but he is not a must-hold in any leagues. He’s likely going to be in and out of the lineup all year long, and rostering him during weeks when steals is not competitive will be the equivalent to playing a man down. As a member of the Thunder, the defensive stud is averaging 1.9 SPG but just 5.4 PPG on 37.3 FG%,0.9 3PG, 2.8 RPG, 2.4 APG, and 0.6 BPG.
Guerschon Yabusele: Good stuff from Yabusele who will get at least one more start with Joel Embiid out for tonight’s game against the Knicks. Given the lack of positive updates on Embiid, who had a setback with his foot last week, the odds of the Frenchman being fairly useful for the rest of Week 12 are high. He’s been a borderline top-100 option over the last two weeks thanks to Embiid and Drummond’s latest injury woes. Over that span, he’s put up 11.3 PPG on 52.5 FG%, 1.8 3PG, 6.0 RPG, and 0.6 BPG. In 16-team leagues, he will be a year-long hold. Hold him once Embiid is back.
Justin Edwards: The big line from Edwards should prove to be a one-off. The Sixers should have at least one of Maxey and George back for tonight’s game against the Knicks. Edwards is just someone to keep in mind for later in the season if Embiid needs to be shut down and the Sixers decide to tank to try to save their pick. The owe their 2025 pick to OKC but it is top-six protected. If the Sixers ever get healthy, Edwards will likely start picking up DNP-CDs.
Hawks 122 Suns 117
Bogdan Bogdanovic: Disappointing stuff from Bogdanovic given that Hunter was out. If he’s not playing 30 minutes on a night when Hunter sits, he probably won’t hit that mark very often. Bogdanovic is no longer a must-roster in 12-team leagues. He could become one in hurry, so we’ll watch him closely, but until we see him produce top-100 numbers for a couple of weeks, he doesn’t need to be rostered in standard setups. Hunter having a big year has hurt him and so has the Hawks’ need to get Risacher some minutes. He also just hasn’t played very well. Bogdanovic’s per-minute numbers are down across the board. In 14-team leagues, he should be rostered.
Vit Krecji: You can probably do better in 12-team leagues, but Krejci is worth a look in deeper settings if Johnson and Hunter continue to sit. When given an extended look, Krecji can be a helpful source of points, threes, assists, and steals as he’s shown over the last couple of weeks. Over his last five appearances, the Hawk has put up a useful 12.6 PPG on 53.5 FG%, 3.0 3PG, 4.0 RPG, 3.8 APG, and 1.0 SPG.
Tyus Jones: Jones is just a luxury stash at this point. If you are rolling along, I’d hold and wait and see if the Suns’ struggles lead to his minutes getting back into the 30 MPG range. That possible as the Suns have not beat a quality team since Christmas. If you are struggling, then it’s fine to send him to the wire for a player who can contribute in more categories. Since Bud started messing around with the rotation six games ago, Jones has played just 23.4 MPG and has averaged just 6.0 PPG on 35.9 FG%, 1.2 3PG, 1.8 RPG, 4.5 APG, and 0.3 SPG. In deep leagues, he is still a hold.
Bradley Beal: Beal is someone to sell after his next big game. The move the bench hasn’t tanked his value, but it has taken a bite out of minutes. As a reserve, he’s playing two fewer minutes than he did as a starter. If he continues to be a 31 MPG player instead of a 33 MPG player, he could drop out of the top 100 in nine-category leagues. If you can get a top-80 player for Beal at some point, you’ve done well. Good luck pulling that off, however. If you don’t have Beal, stay away. His ceiling isn’t high enough to justify taking on the enormous amount of injury risk that accompanies the former All-Star.
Pelicans 119 Bulls 113
Zion Williamson (Sell): Good stuff for Zion who we should continue to shop. We’re now getting “Zion isn’t happy in NO” stories. I doubt this devolves into a Jimmy situation, but if he is unhappy, and he probably is, it ups the odds that he is shut down early. Most tanking teams don’t shut down their top options until the second week of March, but if the Pelicans do decide to start looking into moving Williamson this summer, they may end his season even earlier than that. Zion managers should be willing to accept just about any mid-round player for the former top pick. The odds of his season ending well are extremely low.
Yves Missi: Hold Missi for tonight’s game against the Mavericks because Zion is expected to get a rest day. After that, feel free to send Missi to the wire. As long as Williamson is active, Missi is going to be at least somewhat limited. The Pelicans hate playing traditional bigs beside Zion who does most of his damage in the paint. In three games Missi has played beside Zion since the star returned, the rookie has averaged just 4.3 PPG, 6.7 RPG, and 0.7 BPG in 23.4 MPG. In Roto, Missi is a hold, as in that setting, it’s easy to wait out Zion. Missi should post some big lines in March.
Lonzo Ball (Pick Up in 14+ team leagues): Twenty-five minutes is very interesting, but until we see him get into that range with Ayo Dosunmu (who is returning tonight) active, we should continue to treat Ball as just a top-end streamer in 12-team leagues. In 14-team leagues, especially those with IL+ spots that make the sits during back-to-back sets easier to handle, he is a strong add. Ball has said that the Bulls may revisit his minutes limit after the All-Star break. If that does prove to be the case, he’ll become a must-add in all leagues. Ball in a high 20s role would have a great shot at being a top-100 player and could flirt with the middle rounds in punt points and punt FG%. Over his last seven, Lonzo has managed 8.7 PPG on 44.0 FG%, 2.3 3PG, 3.9 RPG, 4.0 APG, and 2.0 SPG in 23.4 MPG.
Nikola Vucevic: Vucevic managers shouldn’t be too worried about a trade. A change of address would likely be devastating for his fantasy value, but at this point, it feels very unlikely. It’s hard to see any potential contenders lining up for his services given his issues on the defensive end and the $40+ million he’s owed over the next two years. The center is a sell-high due to the possibility for some late-season shenanigans and some shooting regression, but at this point, I’d be very hesitant to give him up for less than a top-35 player. The Bull has shown no signs that he’s about to slow down and is still ranked inside the top 10 in nine-category leagues.
Bucks 130 Kings 115
Bobby Portis (Hold): The low minutes were due to Lopez having one of his better offensive performances of the year. When Lopez is hot, Portis won’t play as much as usual, and vice versa. The backup big has posted four weak lines in a row but remains a must-hold in 10-team leagues. Despite the poor week, Portis is still ranked inside the top 75 over the last 30 days. When he’s hot, he’s capable of posting top-50 value.
AJ Green: Green is one of this week’s top three-point streamers. He could have another 8-to-10 threes left in him with Gary Trent out with a hip flexor strain and the Bucks having three games left on their schedule. Over his last six, in just 23.6 MPG, Green has averaged 10.3 PPG, 3.0 3PG, and absolutely nothing else. The Bucks’ next three games come on Wednesday, Friday, and Sunday.
Keon Ellis: Big minutes for Ellis again due to Monk missing this one with a groin strain. The shooting guard will be a top-end stream as long as Monk is out but is not someone we should be looking at as a long-term hold outside of deep leagues. The coaching change could bring some rotation changes, but so far, Christie’s rotation when the Kings have been healthy has looked a lot like Brown’s. As a starter, Ellis is averaging 10.3 PPG on 45.9 FG%, 2.1 3PG, and 2.2 SPG and is producing mid-round value. When the Kings’ starting five is intact, Ellis’ minutes usually end up in the low 20s where he is just a steals streamer.
Nuggets 118 Mavericks 99
Peyton Watson: The Nuggets have said that they are going to bring Gordon along slowly, so Watson could be useful for a few more games. He’s not a high-floor option, but on nights when he’s seeing minutes in the high 20s, he will be a strong source of blocks who posts low-end but useful numbers in points, rebounds, and steals. Over his last eight, in 28.6 MPG, Watson has put up 9.1 PPG on 43.6 FG%, 0.8 3PG, 4.5 RPG, 1.3 SPG, and 1.9 BPG. Once Gordon ramps up, Watson’s minutes will fall into the low 20s.
Christian Braun: Braun is now droppable in 10-team category leagues. He’s a hold in 12-team leagues for now, but this time next week, you may get a different recommendation. Once Gordon is back to playing his usual minutes, Braun could find himself stuck in a somewhat small role. The reason for that is Russell Westbrook. The former MVP has been phenomenal as of late and Malone may want to keep him in a close to 30 MPG role. The only way Braun continues to play 30+ minutes with a fully healthy Gordon around is if Westbrook’s minutes drop back into the mid-20s which feels very unlikely at this point. In 12-team points leagues, where Braun’s excellent out-of-position FG% impact matters less, he is a drop.
Daniel Gafford (Pick Up): Lively’s night was over early and it sounds like he’ll miss some time with an ankle sprain. The Mavericks’ starting center going down makes Gafford a must-roster in all leagues again. He didn’t play a ton last night, but that was due to the score. This one was over at half. Gafford will have early-round potential as long as Lively is out. When Lively missed three games during the final week of December, Gafford played 28.2 MPG and averaged 13.0 PPG on 66.7 FG%, 6.7 RPG, and 4.0 BPG. Once Lively returns, Gafford will likely go back to seeing minutes in the high teens.
Naji Marshall/Spencer Dinwiddie/Quentin Grimes: With Kyrie back, we can go back to treating Marshall, Dinwiddie, and Grimes as just 12-team streamers. There is enough usage and minutes available with Luka out to make one of three a clear 12-team piece, but the most likely scenario is a minutes and touches split that somewhat limits the value of each player. Who gets extra run each night is likely going to be determined by who has the hot hand. Dinwiddie has the most upside of the bunch, but he hasn’t been able to find the form he showed late in December when he posted some early-round lines. Grimes is the safest of the three. He’s been playing well for a while now and is usually a good bet for points in the low-to-mid-teens and 2.0+ 3PG.
Nets 132 Blazers 114
Noah Clowney (Pick Up in 14+ team leagues): There were a lot of flashy lines posted in this one. That’s not a surprise given this was a battle of two bottom-eight defenses who were missing some of their top pieces. Clowney has now posted solid lines in three of his last four games while also posting arguably the worst line of the season by any player against the Jazz on Sunday. I’d add him in 14-team leagues, but it is still very hard to recommend him as a pickup and hold in 12-team settings. His nightly floor is very low, and unless he starts having more nights like this on the defensive end, his ceiling isn’t very high either, especially outside of punt FG%. As a starter this year, Clowney has averaged 13.1 PPG and 2.6 3PG but just 4.3 RPG, 1.3 APG, 0.6 SPG, and 0.2 BPG while shooting and ugly 41.4 percent from the field.
Keon Johnson (Pick Up): Johnson is an add in punt FG%. In other builds, he’s more of a borderline player in 12-team leagues. He will likely be useful in March, but the next month or so could be shaky with the Nets needing to find minutes for Cam Johnson and D’Angelo Russell who they will be trying to move at the deadline. The guard should be fairly useful as long as he continues to see close to 30 MPG. In a role of that size, he can be a solid source of points, threes, and steals who takes a significant bite out of your FG%. Over his last 12, in 30.6 MPG, Johnson has produced 14.9 PPG on 40.9 FG%, 2.3 3PG, 4.2 RPG, 3.0 APG, and 1.5 SPG.
Scoot Henderson (Pick Up in 14+ team leagues): It feels weird to say a 39-point, eight-three, six-assist night doesn’t mean much, but this 39-point, eight-three, six-assist night doesn’t mean much. It was made possible by the opponent and the Blazers being down Grant and Avidja. The second-year man is a high-upside points and assists streamer in 12-team leagues but likely won’t be consistently valuable until late in the season when the Blazers start to shut down their top options. When Avdija returns, Scoot will likely get stuck in a low 20s role again. Over the five games leading up to last night’s bomb, Henderson played 24, 19, 29 26, and 21 minutes. In 14- and 16-team leagues, he’s fine to roster if you are punting FG%, and ideally turnovers as well. In 12-team points leagues, he’s viable, although he’ll only be a low-end asset when the Blazers are somewhat healthy.
Toumani Camara (Pick Up): A career night for Camara. Unlike Scoot, the forward is a clear pickup in 12-team leagues because his role is fairly safe. The second-year man has played 33.7 MPG over the last month and those big minutes have allowed him to post top-90 numbers in nine-category leagues. Over that stretch, he’s averaged 11.6 PPG on 43.0 FG%, 1.5 3PG, 6.5 RPG, and 1.4 SPG. That line doesn’t jump off the page, but it is a fairly useful one. It is usually very difficult to find strong sources of boards who put up a big number in swipes.