24/25 Feb. 19 Box Score Analysis (1 Game)
Note: The projections have been updated for the Wembanyama news.
Hornets 100 Lakers 97
Elfrid Payton (Watch): Payton should be worth streaming tonight with LaMelo Ball expected to sit due to the game being the second half of a back-to-back set. He started the last time LaMelo was out and has been ahead of KJ Simpson in the Hornets’ rotation since he joined the team. Whether or not he has long-term value is hard to predict. He’s now on his second 10-day contract with the Hornets. If he is signed for the remainder of the year, he will be someone we need to keep a close eye on. Ball could be shut down at some point, and even if he’s not, he’s still going to get at least a handful of rest days down the stretch. I would not expect Ball to play in both ends of a back-to-back set again. On nights when he’s getting heavy run, Payton should be an elite assists and steals streamer. Over the 214 minutes he’s played this year, Payton has produced 10.3 AP36 and 2.0 SP36.
Nick Smith (Pick Up in 14+ team leagues): Smith is just a deep league points and threes option. He’s not doing anything at the moment that can’t be easily found on a 12-team wire. As a starter, he’s averaged a forgettable 12.7 PPG on 41.7 FG%, 2.1 3PG, 2.7 RPG, 2.8 APG, and 0.5 SPG in 29.4 MPG. He needs a Ball injury to have a shot at being a 12-team hold, and even in that scenario, it’s not a lock that he would end up as more than a streamer. He’s not going to do anything outside of points and threes regardless of the size of his role and his extremely weak steal rate (0.7 SP36) gives him a low ceiling.
Moussa Diabate (Drop): If you held through the break, you might as well hold for one more game. Mark Williams will sit tonight, so Diabate should get decent run. After tonight, the big man is an easy drop in all leagues. Charles Lee stated before the game that Nurkic is going to be the backup five going forward. That setup may not last the entire season, but until we see Diabate in the rotation every night, he can’t be rostered, even in deep leagues.
Luka Doncic: Luka doesn’t look like he’s the 270 the Mavericks claimed he was, but he’s playing like he is. Doncic is pretty clearly not in shape at the moment. That’s not a huge surprise given how much time he missed with his calf injury. I would be hesitant to buy low on the newest Laker. You likely can’t get him for less than a top-15 player at this point, and if you go any higher than that, you could easily lose the trade. He’s likely going to be at least somewhat limited for another week or two and it’s unclear what his ceiling and floor are going to look like playing beside a ball-dominant player like LeBron. James is a much higher-usage and time-of-possession player than Kyrie Irving, so don’t been surprised if Doncic loses a notable amount of value in LA. Since the trade, Luka has averaged just 14.7 PPG on 35.6 FG%, 1.7 3PG, 6.7 RPG, 4.3 APG, 0.7 SPG, and 4.0 TOPG in 26.6 MPG.
Rui Hachimura (Pick Up): With the Lakers now very thin in the frontcourt, Hachimura should play enough to be a clear standard league player. He played a little more than he usually will last night because Reaves got tossed in the third, but minutes in the 33 MPG range are very possible. Over his last five, Hachimura has averaged 18.4 PPG on 52.2 FG%, 2.0 3PG, 6.0 RPG, and 0.8 SPG in 34.1 MPG. In builds like punt assists and punt blocks, he could be a top-100 asset going forward.
Jaxson Hayes: A scary night for Hayes managers. The Lakers opted to roll with plenty of small-ball lineups despite Mark Williams and Jusuf Nurkic picking up all of the center minutes on the Hornets’ side. I’d give the big man a couple more games, but if he doesn’t end up as a 25+ MPG player, he’s going to end up as just a streamer in 12-team leagues. In 10-team leagues, he’s already fine to drop. There isn’t much upside here in leagues of that size. As a starter, Hayes has averaged 7.5 PPG on 71.2 FG%, 6.0 RPG, 1.5 APG, 1.0 SPG, and 1.1 BPG in 23.6 MPG.