I didn’t have time to write up a full box score analysis on Christmas Eve, so I put together a thread on X instead. You can see the thread here if you have an X account -> December 23 Box Score Analysis
For those who don’t here are the tweets.
Happy Holidays, everyone! Here are some thoughts on tonight’s 14 games:
HOU vs. CHA
– Huge Amen game which is not a surprise with both Brooks and Eason out. Needs 2 injuries to the top seven to be a league-winner but still has a good shot at the top 100 in his current setup. A high-upside trade target in builds like punt threes. – Eason is still a must-roster. Brooks has been hot lately. Fine as a 13th man but more of a 14-teamer when he’s playing at his normal level. – Good shooting from Fred for once. He remains a strong buy-low target. V poss he ends up shooting like 33% from deep and has a down-year but even in that situation he’d likely be a top-25 punt FG% guy. I’d be very willing to part with a mid-rounder given his upside. – Jalen Green is the same guy he’s always been. He’ll have some hot stretches, but in nine-cat, he’s only going to be a low-end guy. Someone I am always looking to sell after a heater.
– Bridges was having a quiet night before going nuts in garbage time and ended up putting up a first-round line. He can likely be had for a top-90ish player who is hot. I’d be willing to do that. His 2P% and FG% should trend up. – Mark Williams looked really good in limited minutes again. A great trade target for those in need of a big man cats bump. Once he’s playing his usual minutes, he’s going to be a top-50 guy in friendly builds (and maybe overall). – Four stocks for Cody Martin who is a very strong D stats streamer while Miller is out. He can help out in dimes too. – Just 13 minutes for Richards even though Williams was limited. He’s a deep league drop in H2H. Fine to stash in deep league Roto.
PHI vs. SAS
– Embiid was tossed early which led to some big minutes for Yabusele and a nice line. Drummond left early which also helped. Yabusele could be useful on no-Embiid nights, but outside of very deep leagues, I wouldn’t be interested. – George put up some nice counting stats but was inefficient. He’s a bit of a buy-low since he’s producing just top-75 numbers up to this point, but I’d be hesitant to give up more than a top-60 option due to the injury risk. – A bad Oubre night but he remains a must-roster with the stars likely to be in and out of the lineup all year long. – We got some signs of life from Caleb Martin. He’s played 27 and 29 over his last two. Deep league teams should keep an eye on him. The McCain injury will help him.
– Sochan continues to look like a potential mid-round player. That’s a bit of a surprise since his game is not a perfect fit for category leagues. A must-hold through any cold stretches. – 35 minutes for Paul is very surprising. We could get a low-minute game later in the week. – Vassell is a great buy-low target although the time to buy was a couple of weeks ago. Could be a top 50 guy. – Castle had a huge game off the bench but played just 13 minutes. He’s just a 16-team league option.
ORL vs. BOS
– An awesome win for Orlando given the opponent and who they are missing. – Goga only played 21 minutes but put up a gem of a line. The Wagner injury ups the chances that he is useful when Banchero is back. We need to give him a few games with Paolo in the lineup even if the early results are rough. – WCJ played 27 off the bench. He has a low ceiling, but the Wagner injury should make him a low-end 12-team piece. – KCP with two more steals. He’s an elite steals streamer and a long-term 16-team league hold. What to do with him in 14 should come down to the matchup. – A high-usage game for Anthony but just 17 minutes, so he remains just a so-so points and assists streamer. – 23 minutes for Black who is just an assists and steals streamer. – 18 points for da Silva. He’s a low-floor option and just a risky points streamer. Just a borderline guy in 16-teamers.
– Tatum was ruled out after the lock which was absolutely brutal. It’s just an illness, and it sounds like he was at least somewhat close to playing, so I’d expect him back for Christmas. – As usual, there isn’t much to talk about with the Celtics. – A 16/8 game for Jrue with five stocks but no dimes. He should be rostered in 12-team leagues but his ceiling is low since he’s lost some playmaking duties. Not a must in 10-team leagues. – A bad night for Pritchard but he should be a must-roster all year. Could finish very strong if Cleveland can’t keep it up. – Horford is just a streamer in 12-team H2H leagues. The minutes haven’t been there since KP returned and he also just hasn’t played well. Not a bad stash in Roto where you can wait for the no-KP nights.
CLE vs. UTA
– The Jazz managed to keep this one close which was huge for teams with the Cavs top 4. Mobley, Garland, and Mitchell all played their usual minutes and put up big lines. – Allen was quiet which has been a trend lately. He’s a good buy-low target especially if you are punting a guard category or two. He has top-30 upside in builds like punt threes and can probably be had for a mid-round player right now given how ugly his lines look on nights when he’s off. – Strus’ return makes it hard to trust any of the Cavs’ bench options. Jerome is done, Strus is just a watch, and Niang is a threes streamer. LeVert is fine as a 13th man if your 12-team squad is beat up, but he’s not really a long-term hold when the Cavs’ stars are healthy.
– A bad night for Kessler at the line, but the usual great stuff in the big man categories. He continues to look like a major steal. We just have to hope the Jazz lose enough over the next couple of months to make late-season shutdowns less appealing. – Six threes for Lauri but he went just 1/7 from two so the efficiency ended up being ugly. He’s someone I want nothing to do with and would always be looking to sell. His per-game ceiling seems a lot lower this year than it was last year, so no point in taking on so much shutdown risk. – No Keyonte, so Sexton was on-ball more and it led to a nice line. He’s still just a 12-team points and assists streamer. – Clarkson also played 30+ with George out and went off. Same deal as Sexton. Fine in 14 but just a borderline guy in 12.
ATL vs. MIN
– An 8-steal, 10-stock night gets Daniels into the second round in the nine-category rankings. What a pick. No reason to expect him to cool off significantly. – Risacher with a start but he did nothing and only played 19. Not a must in 16-team leagues at this point. – Capela has been very mid this year because his minutes have dropped, but I don’t see the argument for dropping him in 12-team H2H leagues. It’s just too hard to replace 9.3 RPG through the wire. In Roto, where you are unlikely to start him, I don’t think he’s untouchable. In 10-team H2H, I’d hold too although he’s just borderline there, even in friendly builds. – Five stocks and 21 minutes for Nance. The scoring was never going to stick but he’s a nice short-term add for the boards, steals, and FG% with Okongwu out. – Hunter continues to do absolutely nothing outside of the scoring categories, but he’s been so good in points, threes, and especially FT% that it hasn’t mattered. I’d give him some leash once the shooting inevitably cools down because the FT% impact that he’s bringing is impossible to find on the wire, even in shallow leagues.
– Edwards continues to struggle, but I’m not sure I’d call him a buy-low because there’s no way you’re getting him for something like a top-40 player and if you get him for a top-30 player, is that really much of a buy-low? He’s looking like a third-round per-game option. His FT% regressing was a risk coming in, so the dip there is not a surprise. The drop in dimes is disappointing and a bit of a surprise, though. – Conley is more of an assists and steals streamer than a must-hold. He’s fine to drop if he’s your worst player. I did that in one of my leagues. – Gobert is in a slump. The block rate is pretty worrisome. 1.4 BPG is where he landed in 22/23 when he busted. Not as much of an issue this year in re-draft since he came much cheaper, but in dynasty leagues, I’d be a little worried. Father Time could be coming for him. – Naz had a bit of a scare but came back and posted his best line in a while. He’s been a touch disappointing but he’s still a 12-team guy. In 10-team leagues, he’s borderline. Someone to hold for now but he’ll likely be a drop about playoff time. – A dud for DiVincenzo after a couple of nice games. He’s a really nice threes, assists, and steals streamer, but he’s not doing enough elsewhere to get out of the streaming zone in 12-teamers. I’d hold in 14.
MIA vs. BKN
– Dru Smith went down with what looks like a serious injury. That will help Rozier when he’s back. Smith had been playing more than Terry fairly often. I’d hold Rozier for now in 12. In 10, he’s expendable. – Duncan Robinson with a 5-three night. He’s just a 12-team streamer, although a very good one. – A real nice Bam game. He’s been trending up. He needs to figure it out at the line to be a third-round player. At least the FG% has come around. So far the extra threes have not quite offset the dip in FG% impact. It’s been a bad trade-off so far. – Jaquez got the start but did nothing. He’s been awful this year. He’s not even a 16-teamer at the moment.
– Clowney got the start with DFS out. He’s fine to stream if DFS sits again, but I’m not too interested in a stash at the moment. I don’t think he’s all that good. His per-minute three-point output is great (3.3 3P36), but his block rate is mediocre (1.1 BP36) and so are his boards (6.9 RP36). If I thought he had something like 1.4 BPG potential in a 30+ MPG role, I’d be more willing to take a chance on him and eat the FG% hit that accompanies him (39.0 FG%). – Cam Johnson had a forgettable night. He’s a sell-high due to the trade/injury/shutdown risk. I’d be happy to get a safe mid-round player for him. – Claxton was bad again. I’m not too interested in buying low on him. He’s looked significantly worse than how he looked in 23/24 and 22/23 and I worry about late-season shenanigans. The Nets starting hot will probably lead to the shutdowns starting a little earlier than originally planned. Day’Ron Sharpe is someone to keep an eye on. We could see a lot of him late. – Keon Johnson put up a nice line in 28 minutes. He’s just a steals streamer who can help out from deep. His minutes floor is too low to be a 16-team league hold.
NYK vs. TOR
– There’s nothing too interesting to talk about when it comes to the Knicks. No one in the starting lineup is doing anything too unsustainable and Precious’ return has cost McBride a couple of minutes which has dropped him out of the 12-team convo. Things won’t get interesting until Mitch Rob is back. – Anunoby is awesome and I love him, but I also don’t trust him at all. I would be putting him on the block and seeing what offers come in. I will believe him making it through a season in one piece when he’s playing almost 37 MPG when I see it.
– RJ was back for the Raps but they were still without Poeltl and Quickley. Mogbo started but didn’t do anything. He’s just a boards streamer that will usually give us a steal. – Olynyk only played 18. That’s not surprising. This was a B2B and apparently, his back is not 100 percent. He’s a must-watch, but it could be a while before he’s consistent, even in no-Yak games. I’d add in 16. – Agbaji only played 20. He had been hitting 30 consistently coming in. A must-hold for now in 14. In 12, he’s more of a schedule play. – Walter moved back to the bench and had a nice game. 16 points on 5 shots is very impressive. He’s just a points and threes streamer who probably won’t be useful when IQ is out there. – Dick is a standard league guy. I could see him ending up as a streamer when IQ is out there, but for now, he’s a hold. I also wouldn’t be quick to drop him because there likely won’t be too many stretches this year when the Raptors’ top four are all active.
MIL vs. CHI
– No Giannis or Dame, so we got big games out of Portis, Lopez, and Mids. Portis should be held in 10 and 12. He’s been a top-50 player in nine-cat over the last month. That’s not sustainable, but you need to roster players when they are on heaters like that. He’s a great bench option in Roto since you can just wait for a no-Giannis or Lopez game. – It’s only been 7 games, but Middleton has been really good on a per-minute basis so far. I don’t hate the idea of a buy-low because he’s going to come super cheap and there is a decent amount of upside here. Obviously, he’s not for teams built around fragile options. Him playing in B2Bs already is a good sign. – Trent had 14 off the bench in limited minutes. He was terrible when the minutes were there and he’s been pretty good when they have not been there. He’s just a threes and steals streamer in 12-team leagues for now. In 14-team leagues, he’s fine to hold.
– Ayo struggled, but he did give us 11 assists and two steals. Hold him when Giddey is back. He wouldn’t need to take too many minutes from P Will or Giddey to stay at a 12-team level. – P Will was good in limited minutes. His per-minute production has been decent since he came back. In 14-team leagues, he’s a back-end option. – White has fallen off hard after a surprising start. The big start was driven by an unsustainable steal rate, so some regression was expected, but he has been really bad lately. He’s shot just 36.1 percent over the last month. He’s a buy-low but he could easily end up as just a top-125 guy, so don’t give up too much. His game is not fantasy-friendly. He was just a borderline top-100 nine-cat player last year despite playing 36.5 MPG. – Buzelis isn’t a hold anywhere but he’s someone to remember the next time you need a blocks streamer. He’s averaged 1.0 BPG over the last month in just 19.2 MPG. He also gives you a three most nights.
LAC vs. MEM
– 20 and 19 from Zubac. He’d be in contention for steal of the year (non-Dyson Daniels division) if he didn’t all of a sudden turn into a liability at the line. – Derrick Jones had 13 and three stocks in just 22 minutes. A must in 16. Borderline in 14. The minutes have been mediocre lately. – Dunn with three steals. He’s an elite steals streamer and a 14-team league hold. – Norm continues to have a career season at 31. Kawhi probably isn’t that far off, so I would float his name to other managers. I don’t think you need to sell, but if you can get a mid-round player for him, I’d probably pull the trigger. All of his value is tied to usage (the steal rate won’t stick) and Kawhi will take a decent bite out of that usage rate.
– Edey got the start with Zubac on the other side. He struggled on the offensive end but grabbed 14 boards and picked up three stocks. He’s a back-end 12-team piece. His upside is probably limited due to the team he is on. He’d be nasty on a rebuilding squad. – Morant returned and Pippen played 19. He’s just a dimes streamer when Morant is healthy and is a must-grab when he is not. – Bane has been heating up. I would not wait much longer to buy low. He’s one of the top buy-low targets in the league because he is an elite shooter who hasn’t been able to shoot for most of the season. That is a trend that is very unlikely to continue. I wouldn’t expected last year’s numbers, but he could still be a top-50 player. – Aldama played 31 off the bench and put up a well-rounded line. What he’s doing doesn’t feel sustainable since he’s crushing most of his career per-minute marks, but he does refuse to slow down. An easy sell if you can get a mid-round player for him but no one is giving you that. – Smart is out and that has led to some extra minutes for LaRavia. If Smart continues to sit, LaRavia will be a solid assists and steals streamer for Thursday and Friday.
OKC vs. WAS
– The Wiz were surprisingly competitive in this one, so we got normal minutes for the Thunder regulars. Hartenstein played 27 and put up 16/11/3 with two blocks. He’s looking like a home run pick. – J Dub was mediocre again. I wouldn’t worry about his recent poor play. It’s just a shooting slump. He’s not going to be the first-round player he was early in the year, but with Chet out for a while, he’s still a great bet for the top 20. There’s no point in calling him a buy-low. His manager isn’t giving him up. – Dort went 0-6 and did almost nothing elsewhere. With lots of guys hurt and plenty of players sitting with illnesses, he should probably be rostered in 12-team leagues. You won’t feel good about it, but there will be around 170 players rostered in a 12-team league with IL spots. Dort has been playing well above that mark for most of the year. He’s still inside the top 100 in nine-cat, although that is due to his turnover rate (0.6 TOPG). – Joe was the fifth starter tonight and did nothing. He’s just a threes streamer. – Wallace came off the bench and played 28. He had two steals, a three, and four dimes. I would want him in 12-team leagues due to the Thunder’s upcoming schedule. OKC plays six games in nine nights starting on the 26th. – Caruso only played 15. No need to push him against the Wiz. He’s just an elite steals streamer. He needs the Thunder to run into major injury problems to have a shot at minutes in the high 20s.
– Champagnie started for the Wizards again with Kuzma, Sarr, and Coulibaly out. He did nothing on offense but did pick up nine boards and three blocks. He’s only worth streaming if everyone sits again. He played just 17 against the Bucks on Saturday. – JV put up a first-round line with Sarr out. That’s not a surprise. In 12-team Roto, he’s a hold. In H2H, what to do with him comes down to how you’re doing. I’d stash if I was rolling, but if I was out of the playoffs, I’d stream his spot. JV played a combined 39 minutes over the three games leading up to this one. – Brogdon played 26 and put up 12/6/5. He’s not a high-upside option because his minutes seem like they are capped in the mid-20s, but he should be rostered in 12-team leagues. – Bub hit four threes and had a decent game, but he got hurt late and didn’t return. He’s just a 16-team league piece for now. It’s not a lock he’s all that useful late in the year once the Wiz shut down the vets because his game is not fantasy-friendly. – Bagley is probably done for the year after going down with a very ugly knee injury. He has not been a consistent part of the rotation, so that doesn’t change anything.
DAL vs. POR
– This one was over early, so we shouldn’t read too much into the box score on the Mavs’ side. – Gafford dominated this one and looked like he was going to get the better part of the minutes split with Lively. He’s a hold in 10- and 12-team leagues for now. The minutes split hasn’t been bad the last couple of games. – Lively only played 16 due to the score. He’s a must-roster in all leagues with how his minutes have been trending. He’s not a high-upside option, he’s a must-roster in shallow leagues if he’s playing 26-28. – Klay only played 18 due to the score. He was having a nice night before getting shut down. He’s on a heater right now and should be rostered in 12-team leagues. In his current 27-minute role, he’s going to be in and out of the standard league convo all year based on how he’s shooting. At 40%, he’s a drop with those minutes, but when he’s shooting 47%+, he’ll be a useful piece.
– Time Lord was out for this one but Clingan still played just 15 minutes. He’ll be awesome late, but he’s not going to be a 12-teamer as long as Ayton is active. I wouldn’t stash in H2H. In Roto, I would. – Grant only played 20 and was awful. He’s been awful for a while now. He’s a hold in 10 and 12 but he’s only going to be more than a back-end option in punt FG%. A must-trade next time he is hot. He’s going to get shut down in early March. – Deni had another big night. He should be rostered in 12-team leagues. He’s been a lot better than Grant as of late and could be a very valuable player in March. I’d try to be patient with him. – Sharpe had a rough night but did pick up three steals which is very unusual for him. He’s another guy who isn’t a lock to be a long-term 12-team piece but who is playing fairly well at the moment and should be rostered. His upside is very limited since he’s a points, threes, and not much else type of guy. That is the easiest type of line to find on the wire.
DEN vs. PHX
– This was the second night of a back-to-back set, so the Nuggets rested Murray. Westbrook started and put up 11/5/7 with two steals. He’s been really good lately and needs to be rostered in all leagues. In points leagues, he’s a season-long hold and should be held through rough stretches. The Nuggets’ upcoming schedule is very good. They play four games in six nights starting on Christmas. – Braun has slowed down, but he’s still a 12-team option. The huge minutes give him a decent floor. – MPJ was lights-out just one night after getting benched against the Pels’ C team. Like most shooters, he’ll be inconsistent, but in the end, he should be a top-80 player. He’s been better than that so far, but he’ll likely trend down a bit as minutes have dipped slightly since Gordon’s return. – Gordon has been very mediocre since returning. I’d hold, but I doubt he’s more than a back-end option in any build except punt FT%.
– Beal played 35 in this one even though the Suns got annihilated. Bud continues to surprise on the minutes front. I’m not too interested in Beal. I hated him coming into the year and nothing that has happened has made me more bullish on his prospects. He’s a top-75ish per-game player who is made of glass. Players like that usually aren’t worth the headache. Move him after his next hot streak. – Jokic got Nurk into foul trouble and the Sun played just 15 minutes. Nurk’s FG% has woken up, so he should be a clear 12-team player now, but he’s probably just going to be low-end. The loss of creation duties (1.7 APG) has taken a significant bite out of his value. – Tyus was bad, but the dud is nothing to worry about. His role seems very safe. – O’Neale started and played 29. He didn’t do much, but usually, when he plays that much, he puts up a top-100 line. I’d hold as long as Booker is out. – Ryan Dunn played 30. You can chalk that up to the score. He’s just a deep league watch. His elite college defensive numbers haven’t translated. That’s surprising since college STL% and BLK% are usually good predictors of NBA STL% and BLK%.
IND vs. GSW
– Nembhard played 33 after failing to get out of the teens last time out. He’s just an assists and steals streamer in 12-team leagues. In 14-team leagues, he’s a back-end piece. – Haliburton put up a first-round line which is what he’s been doing most nights lately. It doesn’t feel like it because he hasn’t been exploding like he did early last year, but he has been very good as of late. The end of the first round is still in play. He’s been a top-10 player over the last month. – Mathurin stunk it up in 36 minutes. He’s back to being the Mathurin we saw over the first two years of his career. I wouldn’t hesitate to drop him if there is something decent on the wire or if you need to open up a streaming spot. He’ll lose even more value once Nesmith is back. – Toppin only played 18 and had a quiet night. He’s been awesome lately, but what he’s been doing has been completely unsustainable. The shooting and the steals won’t stick. In 12, treat him as a streamer. In 14, hold for now. – T.J. should be rostered in 14-team leagues. In 12-team leagues, he’s a streamer, but sometimes he’s worth holding for a week or two since he produces a fairly unique line. He is one of the few assists and steals options potentially available on a 12-team wire who can help up win FG%.
– TJD started for the second game in a row and put up a great line for the second game in a row. It probably won’t end well, but add and see where it goes. If he can get to even 22 consistently, he’ll be a 12-team guy. His per-minute numbers have been very good this year. – Schroder has done absolutely nothing since his debut for the Warriors. He’s a drop in 10- and 12-team leagues. As long as Steph is healthy, he’s going to be just a dimes streamer and probably not a terribly good one. – Kuminga had 26 off the bench in 30 minutes one game after scoring just 11 against the Wolves in 23 minutes. He’s likely to end up as just a points streamer. His game is a horrendous fit for category leagues. He’s not going to be a top-200 player outside of punt FT%. He’s fine to hold for now, but don’t hesitate to send him packing if an obvious pickup pops up. – Hield is a standard and deep league drop with Schroder in town. He’s played just 20, 21, and 16 minutes since the German debuted.
DET vs. LAL – Harris had a very quiet night on offense but did pick up four stocks. He should shoot a little better going forward and should trend up, but the jump shouldn’t be drastic. Ivey taking on a larger role has hurt him. – Duren played 27 and put up a good, but not great line. He’s had a nice week, but since it’s come with Stewart out of the lineup, we can’t get too excited. He could go back to playing 24 MPG once Stewart is healthy. I’m not buying low. – Ivey is a nice piece in points leagues, but he’s just a back-end option in 12-team leagues who needs to be placed in a friendly build to be somewhat useful. Be careful to not overrate him. He’s a nice piece to throw in a larger trade deal, especially if the opposing manager is inexperienced and is prone to overvaluing the popcorn stats. Ivey is currently ranked outside the top 175 in nine-category leagues. – Ausar only played 16. I bet they give him an extended look eventually, but he may not be useful for a while. For now, he’s just a 16-team league player. Don’t bother stashing just yet in shallower leagues. – Beasley played just 26 but that was enough to allow him to drop 21 with five threes. Hold him and hope he keeps it up for another month. He’s a sell-high, but I doubt you can pull that off.
– LeBron dropped a bomb for the second game in a row. It does seem like there has been some legit slippage this year as his impact numbers have dipped quite a bit, but due to the size of his role, he’s still likely to end up as a third-round player in nine-category leagues. – Rui played 29 and put up an empty line. He’s a back-end guy in 12-team leagues. He’ll have some useful stretches because he’s playing a ton, but his upside is limited. In 14-team leagues, he’s a must-hold. – D’Lo only played 16 because he picked up a hand injury that we don’t have any info on. He’s just a luxury stash. Fine to hold if you are in a good spot, but also fine to drop if your team is struggling. He’ll probably have some nice stretches this year with LBJ and AD fragile, but it’s impossible to know when they will come. – Christie played 33 in what was his sixth straight start. He also recorded two steals for the third straight game. I’d add in 16-team leagues and would watch in 14. His steal rate (1.4 SP36) could make him somewhat useful in deep leagues if he can become a 29 MPG guy.