23/24 Feb. 11th Box Score Analysis (2 Games)
Celtics 110 Heat 106
Derrick White (Buy Low): Back-to-back enormous duds from White. If you need a threes, assists, and blocks boost, try to use the brutal stretch to get the combo guard at a discount. He’s been a top-35 player up to this point, but I wouldn’t value him in that range. A top-50 valuation is more appropriate. The Cetlic has been trending down as the year has gone along. When trying to steal him away from his manager, offer up a mid-round player on a heater and see if you get a bite. You might. White tends to be undervalued due to his modest PPG.
Rest of rotation: As usual, there isn’t anything too interesting going on with the Celtics’ rotation. Tatum, Porzingis, Holiday, and Brown have been fairly steady all year long. Tatum has been a top-12 player for the last two months. He’d be in that range on the year if he wasn’t having a random down-year from the charity stripe. Porzingis is a top-20 per-game player, but the sits during back-to-back sets make him more of a top-35 asset. Holiday and Brown have fallen victim to the Celtics’ impressive depth. Both players have been around the top 75 this year in nine-category leagues and should stay there. Hauser is two threes per night and nothing else. He’s a nice streamer, but there is no path to big minutes. Pritchard is a great stream on nights when one of the guards is sitting. Horford is a nice Roto option since you can sub him in any time Porzingis sits. On those nights, he has top-50 upside. When Porzingis is active, he’s just a 12-team streamer. Tillman could play about 15 MPG when he finally gets healthy. In that role, he could be a decent boards, steals, and blocks streamer.
Heat Injuries: A lot happened in this game on the Heat side. Rozier went down with what originally looked like a scary knee injury, but Spo is calling an ankle issue. He is set to get an MRI on Monday. Even with the break coming up, I would expect some time off for the newest member of the Heat. Josh Richardson also went down with a shoulder issue that is going to require an MRI as well. It was also announced just before tip that Jimmy Butler will be away from the team for a bit due to a death in the family. That probably won’t be a long-term absence, but it should sideline him through the break. With the Heat’s rotation suddenly depleted, there will be a ton of minutes available for Jaime Jaquez Jr. and Caleb Martin. Both should play minutes in the mid-30s until the Heat start to get some bodies back. We saw Jaquez have a top-100 run earlier in the year when he was seeing minutes in that range, and while Martin isn’t quite as sure of a thing, he does have top-100 upside as well. In an expanded role, he should be a solid source of points, threes, rebounds, and steals. Both forwards are worth adding until at least the break. After that, they could be drops depending on who is available for the Heat once the league resumes. With Miami only having one game during the second half of Week 17, they could be tough holds for teams fighting for a playoff spot. Duncan Robinson also becomes a viable add in both 12- and 14-team leagues. Give him a look if you need points and threes. The sharpshooter could be a 3.0+ 3PG option until the Heat get healthy.
Thunder 127 Kings 113
Josh Giddey/Lu Dort (Drop): Both Giddey and Dort are drops in 12-team leagues in Week 17. In 14-team leagues, Dort is a drop and Giddey is a borderline option. What to do with the Australian in deeper settings comes down to your schedule. Oklahoma City only has one game during the first half of the week and two of their three games during the second half of the week come on very busy days. If you can start Giddey only twice next week, he will be very droppable in deep leagues, especially with Gordon Hayward likely to start playing after the break.
Gordon Hayward: Hayward is out through the break but is expected to play during the second half of the week. With OKC having a back-to-back set during the second half of Week 17, we will likely only get two games from the veteran next week. He’s fine to take a flier on if you are cruising, but any team in iffy shape should stay away from the now-former Hornet. There could be a ramp-up period and it’s possible that Hayward’s minutes get stuck in the mid-20s. If they do, he’s going to struggle to stay above the streaming line in 12-team setups. In 14-team leagues, you need to add once he’s back.
Harrison Barnes (Drop): Barnes has been producing somewhat useful lines lately, but with the Kings having only four games during the double week, the forward should go to the wire in 12-team leagues and will be a viable drop in 14-team setups as well. Next week, a four-game schedule is like a three-game shcedule during a normal week. Low-end players like Barnes will struggle to be more than borderline top-200 options when they have a below-average schedule. Over the last month, Barnes has been a top-125 player. However, that ranking is heavily influenced by back-to-back 32+ point games that were clear outliers. Before the back-to-back explosions, Barnes had gone 27 straight games without hitting the 20-point mark.
Kevin Huerter: Huerter was horrendous from the tip, and with Malik Monk humming, the sharpshooter saw limited minutes for the third time in five games. He’s not a must-drop because the dip in playing time is tied to some cold shooting that won’t stick, but if you are in a tight battle for the playoffs at the moment, he’s expendable. Huerter is very unlikely to be a difference-maker during the fantasy playoffs, so if you need extra games, do what you have to do. Huerter has produced top-75 numbers over the last month but only top-175 numbers over the last two weeks.
Malik Monk (Pick Up): Monk is hot and is looking like a clear 12-team player again. However, as is the case with Huerter, what to do with him comes down to your position in the standings. Not only does Sacramento play only four games next week, three of their games come on nights when there are 11 or more games. If Monk is in your bottom two, you may only be able to start him once or twice next week. If the King keeps it going through the double week, he’ll be a must-add once the schedule goes back to normal.