22/23 Trade Deadline Analysis

Trades
February 8th, 2023

Kyrie Irving to Dallas for Spencer Dinwiddie and Dorian Finney-Smith

To Dallas: Kyrie Irving, Markieff Morris

To Brooklyn: Spencer Dinwiddie, Dorian Finney-Smith, one first-round pick, two second-round picks

This is a blockbuster trade, but it is not the most interesting trade for fantasy purposes. Irving’s value should be similar in Dallas to what it was in Brooklyn when Kevin Durant was healthy. Luka Doncic is as ball-dominant as it gets, but we’ve seen Irving maintain top-15 value beside LeBron James who plays a similar style to Doncic and Durant who has a 34.1 percent usage rate this year. Irving’s counting stats could take a small hit, but since he has so much value tied up in the efficiency categories, the overall drop in value is not going to be significant. Luka Doncic’s value is also safe. Kyrie will pick up all of Spencer Dinwiddie’s minutes and touches and will take away touches from the role players before he starts eating into Luka’s touches. I would expect a small dip in points and assists for Doncic, but nothing notable. Christian Wood could take a hit if he is still in Dallas after the deadline. The Mavericks don’t need his offense as badly anymore with Irving around and could opt to give some of Wood’s minutes to better defenders. That may not happen right away, but it could once Maxi Kleber returns. Dorian Finney-Smith moving to Brooklyn opens up a lot of minutes on the wing. Tim Hardaway Jr. could play a little more, but he’s not going to see a bump in value since Kyrie will eat into his usage. He remains just a 14-team league option. Josh Green should see his minutes spike. He’s worth keeping an eye on in all leagues, but I would only consider adding in deep leagues. His offensive output is going to be minimal with Kyrie and Luka running the offense and he hasn’t produced interesting per-minute numbers in any category except steals this year (1.4 SP36).
Dinwiddie will step into a massive role in Brooklyn with both stars out of town. That means significant usage and minutes in the mid-30s. He could improve on all of Dallas counting stats now that he’s going to be the team’s top option. Dorian Finney-Smith is worth a flier now that he’s in a Nets jersey, although he’s not as attractive as he was before the KD trade. Vaughn has been playing Royce O’Neale minutes in the low-to-mid-30s all season long. DFS is a better player, so there’s a good chance that’s where his minutes land in that range as well. Finney-Smith doesn’t produce a sexy line, but if he plays that much, he’ll do enough in threes, rebounds, and steals to be worth holding. DFS coming to town likely ends O’Neale’s run of usefulness. O’Neale has had some strong stretches this year because he’s been playing massive minutes. If DFS’ arrival costs him even three or four minutes, he’s going to end up as just a low-end 14-team league option.
Cam Thomas is a hold. Things were looking rough after the Irving trade, but the Nets officially moving towards a rebuild gives him a shot at maintaining standard league relevance. He is still a sell-high, however. Nothing he is doing is sustainable even if he is given a big role and the hype will never be higher.

Standard League Pickups: Dorian Finney-Smtih

Deep League Pickups: Josh Green

D’Angelo Russell, Malik Beasley, Jarred Vanderbilt to the Lakers, Mike Conley to Minnesota, Russell Westbrook to Utah

To Los Angeles: D’Angelo Russell, Malik Beasley, Jarred Vanderbilt

To Minnesota: Mike Conley, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, one second-round pick

To Utah: Russell Westbrook, Juan Toscano-Anderson, Damian Jones, one first-round pick

D’Angelo Russell going back to the Lakers is going to lead to a material drop in value. He struggled early in the season playing beside both Karl-Anthony Towns and Anthony Edwards before taking it up multiple notches after Towns went down. On the Lakers, he’ll be back in a third-option role. Expect his usage, points, and assist rate to drop playing beside LeBron James and Anthony Davis. Russell has been a borderline top-60 player up to this point. In Los Angeles, he’s likely going to lose multiple rounds of value. Malik Beasley remains an elite threes streamer and someone to keep an eye on in standard leagues. Add him in 14-team leagues if you need threes. His role could end up being sizable with the Lakers lacking shooters. Jarred Vanderbilt is also a must-roster in 14-team leagues and a borderline pickup in 12-team leagues. We’ve seen him put up standard league numbers in a mid-20s role and he should land in that range on a Lakers team that is light on legitimate rotation players.
Conley moving to Minnesota should lead to a bump in value, at least until Towns is back. With Russell gone and Town down, the Wolves are going to need Conley to score more than he did in Utah. I wouldn’t expect any miracles, but a jump from 10.7 PPG to 14 PPG could happen. Russell being swapped for Conley should also lead to a usage rate bump for Anthony Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns, whenever he returns.
Russell Westbrook is likely to be bought out. It’s possible that he doesn’t play a single game for the Jazz. Where he ultimately lands is hard to say. Rebuilding teams won’t want him and playoff teams are unlikely to want to feature him. Hold for now. Conley moving on and Westbrook likely getting bought out opens up a lot of minutes for Collin Sexton. He is a low-end add in 12-team category leagues. He could average 18-to-20 PPG, but the rest of his line will be very weak. His game is just not made for category leagues. In points leagues, he is a stronger add. Don’t expect a repeat of what he did in his last healthy year in Cleveland. His borderline nine-category top-100 performance that year was made possible by him playing 35.3 MPG and a usage rate of 30.8 percent. Don’t expect him to sniff either number in Utah with Jordan Clarkson and Lauri Markkanen still around. Add him, but keep your expectations in check. Vanderbilt being shipped helps Kelly Olynyk. The veteran should play around 30 MPG the rest of the way with Vanderbilt no longer in the rotation. He is an add in all leagues.

Standard League Pickups: Collin Sexton, Kelly Olynyk

Deep League Pickups: Jarred Vanderbilt, Malik Beasley

Kevin Durant and T.J. Warren to Phoenix for Mikal Bridges, Cam Johnson, and Picks

To Phoenix: Kevin Durant, T.J. Warren

To Brooklyn: Mikal Bridges, Cam Johnson, Jae Crowder (traded to Milwaukee), four first-round picks, one pick swap

Durant to Phoenix is bad news for all of the Suns’ top options. It’s possible that Devin Booker is just a borderline top-50 nine-category/top-40 eight-category option the rest of the way. Most of his value is in points, assists, and FT% impact and his numbers in all three categories will take a hit once Durant debuts sometime after the All-Star break. You don’t want to do it now because it will look like a panic move, but in a few days, put Booker on the block and see what kind of offers you get. A decent-sized hit is coming. Booker has only been a top-35 nine-category per-game player up to this point. Chris Paul and Deandre Ayton are going to turn into low-usage options. That’s not a big issue for Paul since he’s been able to post third-round numbers this year while averaging only 13.6 PPG, but it is a problem for Ayton who has a lot of value tied up in points. He’s only been a top-70 player up to this point and if he loses some usage, he could be just a top-90 option down the stretch. Like Booker, Ayton is someone to consider shopping. Durant’s value should be relatively safe. He has posted his current numbers beside a 27 PPG player, so I wouldn’t worry too much about a drop in his usage rate. Durant will get his and then the rest of the Suns will have to fight for the rest. Minutes are more of a concern. He was playing 36 MPG in Brooklyn. The Suns could opt to play him a little less than that to keep him healthy for the playoffs. Booker is currently playing 34.2 MPG. It wouldn’t be surprising to Durant land in that range. T.J. Warren is just a 16-team league add. All of his value is tied to usage and he’s not going to get a ton on a team this loaded, although injuries could get him into the 12-team conversation eventually. The Suns’ starting lineup is elite now, but it’s fragile. Durant coming to town wipes out what little value any of the bench options had in the deeper leagues.
The Nets are a tough team to get a read on at the moment. They’ve got a lot of wings who play the same role. Bridges is a lock for huge minutes, assuming he’s not moved. He should be at least a top-50 player in Brooklyn and could crack the top 30 in nine-category leagues. He’s going to get a usage rate bump in Brooklyn and could flirt with 20 PPG the rest of the way. Johnson was already a must-roster and should continue to play at that level with the Nets. They have a lot of interesting wings right now, but Johnson is a better play than guys like Cam Thomas and Seth Curry, so the minutes should be there. Crowder won’t play for the Nets. He is on his way to Milwaukee. The trade gives Cam Thomas a better shot at staying relevant, but he’s still a sell-high. It’s not a lock that he maintains standard league value. If the starting lineup is Dinwiddie/Johnson/Bridges/DFS/Claxton, it is going to be hard for Thomas to be a top-100 player. Royce O’Neale’s value was hanging by a thread prior to the trade and this move puts an end to his usefulness. I would feel comfortable dropping O’Neale in 14-team leagues. Seth Curry will go back to being just a low-floor threes streamer.

Standard League Pickups: Cam Johnson, Cam Thomas

Deep League Pickups: T.J. Warren

Jakob Poeltl to Toronto for Picks

To Toronto: Jakob Poeltl

To San Antonio: Khem Birch, one first-round pick, two second-round picks

It took three years, but the Raptors finally got their center. Poeltl is a free agent this summer, but he’s a lock to re-sign with his old team. Toronto was his preferred destination and the Raptors are not making this trade if they didn’t plan on bringing him back. If this is the Raptors’ last move of the day, it’s going to create an interesting situation. They have six starter-level players on their roster. Someone is going to the bench. Trent is the top candidate for a demotion, although Poeltl off the bench and a matchup-based starting lineup is also an option. Who starts is not a huge deal. With how little Nurse uses his bench, all six players should play major minutes. Trent likely loses a little value, but he should be a mid-round player. Poeltl’s value could increase in Toronto. He was playing only 26.1 MPG in San Antonio. It would be surprising if he did hit at least 28 MPG. If the Raptors make another move, then minutes in the low-to-mid-30s is possible. In that scenario, Big Yak would be an early-round punt FT% weapon. Poeltl joining the squad makes Precious Achiuwa and Chris Boucher drops.
Zach Collins is the Spurs’ new starting center. The promotion doesn’t mean 30 MPG for the big man, but it does make him worth a standard league flier. In a mid-20s role, Collins would do good work in all of the big man categories while being one of the few low-end bigs who helps in dimes. The Spur is currently producing 16.8 PP36 on 53.8 FG%, 1.0 3P36, 10.1 RP36, 4.3 AP36, and 1.2 BP36. Charles Bassey is also worth watching. He’s a per-minute stud and would be a standard league add if Collins goes down or is moved. Foul trouble will limit him, but like Collins, he would be useful in a mid-20s role. Also like Collins, he’s a sneaky-good passer (3.2 AP36) who has significant upside in the big man categories (12.3 PP36 on 67.1 FG%, 13.8 RP36, 2.4 BP36). For now, Bassey is just a 16-team league flier.

Standard League Pickups: Zach Collins

Deep League Pickups: Charles Bassey

Josh Hart to New York for Cam Reddish and a Pick

To New York: Josh Hart

To Portland: Cam Reddish, Ryan Arcidiacono, Svi Mykhailuk (traded to Charlotte), one first-round pick

Hart is definitely a Thibs guy. He should get the full Thibs treatment and play minutes in the low-to-mid-30s. His value should be close to what it was in Portland. His rebounding rate could take a hit playing beside Julius Randle, and eventually Mitchell Robinson, but the increase in playing time should offset the dip. During his final month in Portland, Hart was playing only 30.0 MPG. He is worth holding for now in 10-team leagues. Hart moving to NYC is going to be a problem for Quentin Grimes. It’s possible that Grimes still starts, but Hart is going to be taking a lot of his minutes. Grimes can be dropped in 14-team leagues and will likely end up as a 16-team league drop as well. Hart will also pull minutes from Immanuel Quickley who can also be dropped in 14-team leagues.
Reddish moves to Portland where he will battle Matisse Thybulle and Shaedon Sharpe for minutes. I would not bet on Reddish winning that battle. He hasn’t been a positive player since high school and is a weak per-minute producer. All of his value being tied to the scoring categories isn’t ideal either. His usage is going to be minimal playing on a team with Damian Lillard, Anfernee Simons, and Jerami Grant. Reddish is a just a deep-league watch.

Standard League Pickups: Josh Hart

Jae Crowder to Milwaukee for Picks

To Milwaukee: Jae Crowder

To Brooklyn: Five second-round picks

Crowder can be ignored in all leagues. He’s a poor per-minute player who is likely to be stuck in a low-20s role. However, he will have an impact on fantasy leagues because some of his minutes are going to come at expense of Bobby Portis. With Crowder around, Portis’ minutes are likely going to drop into the low-20s. He’s been a standard league player in a role of that size before, but a 22 MPG role would make it tough for him to be more than a top-120 player. Portis is now expendable in 10-team leagues and shouldn’t be viewed as untouchable in 12-team leagues if you are a borderline playoff team.

Thomas Bryant to Denver for Picks

To Denver: Thomas Bryant

To Los Angeles: Three second-round picks

Denver needed a backup center badly and they got one. I’m not sure that Bryant is going to be playable against the Suns, but he’s better than nothing. The big man is not going to be worth holding in any league when Jokic is healthy, but he is someone to keep in mind because the likely MVP could be getting plenty of rest down the stretch. Denver is running away with the West and have already started to ramp up the load management. Anytime Jokic sits, Bryant will be a must-stream and a great bet for at least a mid-round line.

Matisse Thybulle to Portland, Jalen McDaniels to Philadelphia, Picks to Charlotte

To Portland: Matisse Thybule

To Philadelphia: Jalen McDaniels

To Charlotte: Svi Mykhailiuk, multiple second-round picks

Thybulle is worth taking a flier on in deeper leagues now that he’s in Portland. It’s unclear how large his role will be, but with Josh Hart now in New York, there are a lot of minutes available at the forward position. If Thybulle can pick up even 25 of them, he’ll average close to 2.0 SPG and 1.0 BPG. The offense will be terrible, but in deeper leagues, the defensive numbers could be enough to make him a must-roster. In standard leagues, he’s just a watch for now.
Jalen McDaniels is a very nice pickup for the Sixers, but he’s not going to have any fantasy value. His presence is potentially bad news for De’Anthony Melton, although I wouldn’t expect a major decrease in Melton’s playing time since McDaniels can take Georges Niang and Thybulle’s minutes. I wouldn’t sell Melton or any other Sixers based off of this trade. Remember, the Sixers have an elite playoff schedule, so we should value their players above their per-game numbers.

Deep League Pickups: Matisse Thybulle

Bones Hyland to the Clippers for Picks

To Los Angeles: Bones Hyland

To Denver: Three second-round picks

This is a so-so landing spot for Bones. If you stashed him, feel free to give him a game or two, but it’s hard to see how he becomes more than a 16-team league option in Los Angeles. None of the Clipper role players are especially useful and Hyland is unlikely to buck that trend. Reggie Jackson is now in Charlotte, but with Terance Mann around and the Clippers so deep, Hyland could easily get stuck in a 20 MPG role. On the Denver side, this doesn’t change anything since Bones has not been in the rotation lately.

James Wiseman to Detroit, Saddiq Bey to Atlanta, Picks to Golden State

To Detroit: James Wiseman

To Atlanta: Saddiq Bey

To Golden State: Kevin Knox (traded to the Blazers), Five second-round picks (traded to the Blazers)

Detroit is loving their reclamation projects. They took a gamble on Marvin Bagley and they are now doing the same thing with Wiseman. Wiseman is just a watch in standard leagues and 14-team leagues. In 16-team leagues, he’s fine to add. He will be behind Jalen Duren, who is the much better prospect, and likely Isaiah Stewart as well, but with Bey on the move, we are likely looking at the two-big lineup coming back which could lead to close to 20 MPG for Wiseman. With that much run, Wiseman could score in double-digits while giving you solid FG% impact and five or six boards. The rest of his line will be low-end and keeps his upside low in category leagues. I’m not worried about Duren. He is the better prospect and should continue to play minutes in the mid-to-high-20s. Wiseman hurts Duren’s ceiling, but Casey probably wasn’t going to play Duren 30+ MPG down the stretch anyway. Stewart hasn’t been a standard league player for a while and should be dropped in 12-team leagues. In 14-team leagues, he’s just a back-end option.
Bey can be dropped now that he’s a Hawk. He is unlikely to be more than a 16-team league option in Atlanta. His presence will hurt Bogdan Bogdanovic and De’Andre Hunter. Hold Bogdanovic for now and see how the rotation shakes out. Bog Bog only needs around 27 MPG to be useful. Hunter was already trending in the wrong direction and is not a must-hold in 14-team leagues.

Deep League Pickups: James Wiseman

Mo Bamba to the Lakers for Patrick Beverley and Picks

To Los Angeles: Mo Bamba

To Orlando: Patrick Beverley, at least one second-round pick

Bamba is worth a flier in deeper leagues. He doesn’t need a ton of minutes to be useful in deeper leagues, and with AD fragile and not liking to play the five, it’s possible that he gets enough run to be a 14-team league option. In 12-team leagues, he’s just a watch for now. If we see Bamba start to play 24+ MPG, then he will be a 12-team add. Bamba joining the Lakers takes some of the shine off of Jarred Vanderbilt. Vanderbilt is more of a 14-team league add now. Bamba leaving Orlando makes Moe Wagner the clear handcuff to Wendell Carter Jr. With Bamba out of town, Wagner is a good bet to step into a 30 MPG role if Carter’s foot acts up. Watch him very closely and be prepared to run to him if we get a bad Carter update at some point. Wagner is also a viable hold in 16-team leagues.
Beverley joining the Magic’s rotation would be bad news for all of the guards, but that feels unlikely to happen. Beverley is a good bet to be bought out. If he does stick around in Orlando, it is very unlikely that he plays enough minutes to be useful.

Deep League Pickups: Mo Bamba, Moe Wagner

Mason Plumlee to the Clippers for Reggie Jackson

To Los Angeles: Mason Plumlee

To Charlotte: Reggie Jackson, one second-round pick

This is a surprisingly weak haul for Plumlee given what some of the low-end rotation players went for today. The big news here has nothing to do with Plumlee or Jackson. The big news is that the stash hit. If he is still available in your league, pick him up immediately. He is the one potential difference-maker that popped up today (Cam Johnson could be in that category as well, but it’s hard to project the Nets’ rotation at the moment). Williams should be at least a mid-round player going forward and has top-50 potential in friendly builds like punt threes and punt assists. Expect some monster numbers in all of the big man categories and a surprisingly solid steal rate for big. Williams had a very fantasy-friendly game in college and is currently producing an elite 18.1 PP36 on 64.8 FG%, 13.4 RP36, 1.9 SP36, and 2.6 BP36. Nick Richards also becomes interesting with Plum Dog in LA. Williams is unlikely to be a 30 MPG player and Richards could end up in the 22-to-24 MPG range. With that much run, he could give you 9 and 7 and a block a night to go along with solid FG% impact. He is a reasonable 14-team league add. Reggie Jackson can be ignored in deeper leagues. He has no shot at big minutes and it’s not a lock that he stays with Charlotte.
Plumlee loses his standard league appeal now that he’ll be splitting minutes with Ivica Zubac. It’s ok to him a game or two to see what the split looks like, but Plumlee is likely going to be only a big man categories streamer down the stretch. It’s possible that he maintains 14-team league value, but only in punt FT%. Plumlee joining the Clippers could turn Zubac into a streamer as well. He is a hold for now, but if the split is close to even, will be expendable in 12-team leagues.

Standard League Pickups: Mark Williams

Standard League Pickups: Nick Richards

Eric Gordon to the Clippers, Luke Kennard to Memphis, John Wall to Houston

To Los Angeles: Eric Gordon, three second-round picks

To Memphis: Luke Kennard

To Houston: John Wall, Danny Green

The Clippers’ rotation gets even messier. At this point, it wouldn’t be surprising if Kawhi Leonard and Paul George were the only standard league-caliber players on the roster. Gordon is not an add anywhere. He will likely just take Kennard’s 20 minutes.
Kennard gives the Grizzlies a solid shooter off the bench. He is just a threes streamer for deep leagues You should have dropped Dillon Brooks once Desmond Bane came back, but if you haven’t yet, send him to the wire immediately. The swingman is just a low-end 16-team league option at this point and could lose some minutes to Kennard.
John Wall is a buy-out candidate in Houston. It would be very surprising if he had a role for tanking Rockets, even if KPJ’s injury drags out. Kenyon Martin Jr. is a 12-team add with Eric Gordon finally on the move. He was the main beneficiary when Gordon sat this year. The Rocket has been playing very well as of late and has posted top-75 numbers over the last two weeks thanks to averages of 14.9 PPG on 67.7 FG%, 0.9 3PG, 7.1 RPG, 2.0 APG, and 0.7 BPG. Martin won’t be a long-term top-100 option, but he could do enough in points, rebounds, and FG% to be worth holding. Unless Silas starts using Tari Eason differently, this trade is not going to have a notable impact on his value. Eason has been playing the four this year and that is why he’s been stuck in a 20-minute role. He did not see his minutes spike on nights when Gordon sat. He’s fine as a end-of-bench option in 12-team leagues, but without a change of heart from Silas or a Jabari Smith injury, that’s all he’s going to be. A late-season breakout is not guaranteed. Silas did not give Alperen Sengun an extended look last year until the final two weeks of the regular season.

Standard League Pickups: Kenyon Martin Jr.

Gary Payton II to Golden State for Picks

To Golden State: Gary Payton

To Portland: Five second-round picks

The Warriors are sending the five second-round picks they got from Detroit for Wiseman to Portland for Payton. That means that they swapped Wiseman for Payton and tens of millions of dollars in tax savings. That is some nice work by the Warriors’ front office. If Payton’s role is similar to what it was during his first stint with the Warriors, he could be a solid 16-team league option who is an elite steals streamer in shallower leagues. Payton hasn’t been the per-minute monster that he was last year since returning from his core injury, but that could change now that he’s moving back into a system that he’s excelled in. Steal rate is usually impacted by defensive systems. Payton returning to the Warriors is bad news for Donte DiVincenzo. DiVincenzo is still a must-hold in all leagues with Steph Curry out, but he could get squeezed eventually. There’s a decent chance that he ends up as just a deep league option when the Warriors are at full strength.

Deep League Pickups: Gary Payton

Josh Richardson to New Orleans for Devonte’ Graham and Picks

To New Orleans: Josh Richardson

To San Antonio: Devonte’ Graham, four second-round picks

Richardson is unlikely to be more than a 16-team league option in New Orleans. The Pelicans are arguably the deepest team in the league and they just got deeper. His presence could end up being an issue for Herb Jones and Trey Murphy, especially once Zion Williamson is back. For now, Herb is just a borderline t12-team option and a must-hold in 14-team leagues. Murphy is still a hold in 10-team leagues.
Richardson joining the Pelicans opens up some minutes for Malaki Branham. He doesn’t need to be picked up anywhere since he’s just low-end points and threes which is the easiest type of line to find on the wire. This move should get Jeremy Sochan some extra touches and possible minutes as well. However, he’s just a back-end 14-team league option until we see his minutes get into the 30s. The rookie is a terrible per-minute producer and isn’t going to be all that useful in a 28 MPG role. Devonte’ Graham could pick up some backup point guard minutes with the Spurs not really having a backup point guard. Deep league players should keep an eye on him, but he can be ignored in standard leagues.