Below is a pick-by-pick breakdown of this year’s draft class. While there are some interesting players in this year’s rookie crop, it is not a deep class. Very few players who were drafted outside of the lottery this year come with interesting fantasy profiles. Most of this year’s non-lottery picks are long shots to be big minute players in the league and many of the better prospects produce lines that are poor fits for category leagues. If you do not have an early pick in your rookie draft, consider moving your pick(s) for future draft capital. The 2025 and 2026 drafts project to be loaded with top-end talent and should end up as much deeper classes.
I have also included a list of rookies who should be drafted in re-draft settings and dynasty tiers for this year’s first-round picks and some of the more interesting second-round picks.
1) Zaccharie Risacher (Hawks) – Risacher comes with a mediocre fantasy profile for a top-overall pick. His game isn’t a poor fit for category leagues, but it’s not a great fit either. The forward projects as a three-and-D type who doesn’t do much on-ball. Players like that can be mid-round options, but they rarely crack the top 50. Across his 55 2023-2024 appearances for Mincidelice JL Bourg, Risacher averaged 10.6 PPG on 46.7 FG%, 1.3 3PG on 39.4 3P%, 3.6 RPG, 1.0 APG, 0.8 SPG, and 0.3 BPG in 22.6 MPG. He did trend up as his season went along, but the nature of his game did not change. He didn’t do much outside of points, threes, and steals and likely won’t produce anything helpful outside of those three categories in his first year in the association. A well-rounded line is likely multiple seasons away due to how limited he currently is on-ball. He’s not going to be creating much for himself or others for at least a couple of seasons. In re-draft leagues, he’s worth a final-round flier because he could see minutes in the high 20s this season. In dynasty leagues, he is just a top-10 pick despite his draft position. While he will likely be one of the better players in the draft, there are quite a few lottery picks who come with games that are much stronger fits for category leagues.
2) Alex Sarr (Wizards) – Don’t let Sarr’s very rough Summer League showing scare you away from the Wizard in re-draft or dynasty settings. While he is a work-in-progress on the offensive end, his excellent block rate gives him both a high floor and a high ceiling in category leagues. He produced a very impressive block rate for his age in Australia (2.8 BP36) and has been an outstanding source of swats in both Summer League and preseason. In Summer League, he averaged 2.5 BPG in just 29.6 MPG, and through his first four preseason appearances, he’s produced 1.7 BPG in just 22.9 MPG. If he ends up as 2.0+ BPG player in his prime, he won’t need to be more than an average player on offense to be a top-50 asset. While his Summer League offensive performance was ugly, he does have a fair amount of upside on that end. His three-ball is already respectable and his passing has been very solid in preseason for a young big. He will likely end up as a much smaller drag on threes and dimes than most elite blocks sources. He is worth a late-round flier in re-draft leagues. With the Wizards not trying to win this year, a high-20s MPG role is likely. In dynasty settings, he is a clear top-two pick.
3) Reed Sheppard (Rockets) – Sheppard is the top pick in rookie drafts. He enters the league with a game that is an incredible fit for category leagues. He projects to be an elite shooter and an elite source of steals who could one day be a very strong source of assists as well. Due to how fantasy-friendly Sheppard’s game is, he could end up as an early-round player in category leagues even if he does not develop into an All-Star-level player. As a freshman at Kentucky, Sheppard put up a ridiculous 12.5 PPG on 53.6 FG%, 2.3 3PG on 52.1 3P%, 4.1 RPG, 4.5 APG, 2.5 SPG, and 0.7 BPG while shooting 83.1 percent from the free throw line. While his long-term fantasy upside is immense, his short-term outlook is murky. He has joined a Rockets team that is deep at every position. As a rookie, he will likely get stuck in a low-20s MPG role. While this year will likely be frustrating, Sheppard could be a featured player on the Rockets as early as next season. Neither Fred VanVleet nor Jalen Green is a lock to be on the roster after this year. VanVleet has been very good in Houston, but his contract includes a pricy team option for the 2025-2026 season. Green has underwhelmed for most of his first three seasons in the league and did not sign an extension this summer. If he continues to disappoint, Houston could start shifting his minutes to Sheppard and Amen Thompson.
4) Stephon Castle (Spurs) – Castle is a solid prospect on the court, but in category leagues, his ceiling is not very high. At UConn, he had a game that was a poor fit for category leagues. In 27.0 MPG, the combo guard managed 11.1 PPG on 47.2 FG%, 0.6 3PG on 26.7 3P%, 4.7 RPG, 2.9 APG, and 0.8 SPG while shooting 75.5 percent from the line. Guards who are not plus-shooters or strong contributors in steals rarely become more than middling options in category leagues. If he develops well and ends up as the Spurs’ point guard of the future, he could be a top-100 option, but the top 50 is not going to be in play unless the nature of his line changes. He’s more likely to improve his jumper significantly than his steal rate. College 3P% is not a great indicator of NBA 3P% but college steal rate is a very good indicator of NBA steal rate. He’s a top-10 pick in rookie drafts because he’s more likely to have a long career than most players in the draft, but he shouldn’t go inside of the top five due to the issues with his line.
5) Ron Holland (Pistons) – Holland is a viable as high as three in rookie drafts. The only two rookies who have clearly better fantasy outlooks are Alex Sarr and Reed Sheppard. The forward is a very interesting fantasy prospect because he has the potential to develop into a 20+ PPG scorer who comes with a top-end steal rate. That is a combination that is difficult to find. Most elite steals sources are role players on the offensive end. Over his 15 regular season appearances with G League Ignite, Holland averaged an exciting 18.5 PPG on 47.4 FG%, 6.7 RPG, 2.8 APG, 2.1 SPG, and 1.1 BPG. Those are extremely impressive numbers for an 18-year-old playing against ex-college stars. While he did produce a fantasy-friendly line in the G League, his game does have some notable holes in it. He is likely multiple years away from developing a reliable three-point shot. He averaged just 0.7 3PG on 23.9 3P% with the Ignite and shot just 68.2 percent from the charity stripe. That last number is worrisome because pre-NBA FT% correlates with a player’s NBA 3P%. Holland needs to be watched closely in re-draft leagues. With Ausar Thompson’s status up in the air, the rookie could step into a 20+ MPG role immediately. He could be a solid steals streamer early in the season who develops into a clear 12-team option as the season moves along and the Pistons start shifting minutes from their veterans to their younger prospects.
6) Tidjane Salaun (Hornets) – Salaun is the biggest question mark in the 2024 draft. He has excellent size and is a very good athlete, but he is also extremely young and raw. As an 18-year-old in the top French league, he played just 22.0 MPG and averaged 9.0 PPG on 37.3 FG%, 1.4 3PG on 32.9 3P%, 4.0 RPG, 1.0 APG, 1.2 SPG, and 0.2 BPG. He has looked much more competent on the offensive end in preseason than you’d expect given those numbers, but he is still likely at least a year or two away from being a consistent contributor on offense. It may also take a couple of years for the minutes to be there with the Hornets’ second and third options currently occupying the team’s two starting forward spots. In his prime, Salaun projects to be a solid three-and-D type who can do more on the boards than most players of that ilk. He’s not a re-draft option, but in rookie drafts, he should go inside the top 10.
7) Donovan Clingan (Blazers) – Clingan has the potential to develop into a centerpiece of the punt FT% build. He is a traditional big who will dominate the FG%, rebounds, and blocks categories if he ends up as a 28+ MPG starter. During UConn’s most recent championship run, the defensive stud averaged a ridiculous 13.0 PPG on 63.9 FG% 7.4 RPG, and 2.5 BPG in just 22.5 MPG. He is yet to show much in the guard categories (0.1 3PG, 1.5 APG, 0.5 SPG) and is likely to struggle badly at the line (58.3 FT%), so his value will be very build-dependent. He could end up as one of those players who produces early-round numbers on teams punting a guard category or two but who is only a top-100 player when all nine categories count. Clingan doesn’t need to be drafted in re-draft formats outside of very deep leagues, but he will be a must-watch as season long. He could be a strong blocks streamer immediately and will almost certainly get an extended look late in the season. With the Blazers tanking, and Clingan likely to be an excellent per-minute producer, the center could end up as a silly season hero. He is a strong candidate for a top-five pick in rookie drafts.
8) Rob Dillingham (Wolves) – Dillingham comes with significant upside on the offensive end. He was a monster per-minute producer in the guard categories while playing under John Calipari, a coach known for producing guards who look much better at the pro level than they did in college. In his lone year at Kentucky, Dillingham averaged an outstanding 15.2 PPG on 47.5 FG%, 2.0 3PG on 44.4 3P%, 3.9 APG, and 1.0 SPG in just 23.3 MPG. If he ends up as a starting-level point guard, he will be a lock to be a strong fantasy asset. While his ceiling on offense is very high, Dillingham is not a lock to end up as a centerpiece of a team because of his size. He is undersized for his position and has a build that may prevent him from being able to put on a significant amount of weight. If he ends up as a player who needs to be hidden on the defensive end, teams will hesitate to build around him. If you have watched the playoffs recently, you have probably noticed that the top contenders do not have many defensive liabilities in their lineups. Dillingham is a decent flier in very deep re-draft leagues. He’ll likely see minutes in the high teens as Mike Conley’s backup. In standard leagues, he will just be someone to stream on nights Conley rests. In dynasty formats, he’s a reasonable pick inside the top five. The only two players in this draft who are clearly safer bets than Dillingham are Reed Sheppard and Alex Sarr.
9) Zach Edey (Grizzlies) – Edey is the draft’s most polarizing player. He was an all-time college performer who was seen as an iffy NBA prospect throughout his time at Purdue because there have not been many players Edey’s size who have succeeded at the NBA level, especially since the league moved to a more perimeter-oriented style. While he will struggle to keep up with quick guards on the perimeter, some of the defensive concerns should prove to be overblown. Edey tested fairly well at the NBA combine. He posted speed and agility times that were better than many of the league’s starting fives. He also outperformed Donovan Clingan across the board at the combine. If he can be even passable on defense, Edey should be a solid pro because he is a lock to be a very good offensive player. His size is going to be a huge issue for defenders and he enters the league with a game that is much more polished than those of most NBA veterans. The Canadian’s per-scoring rate should be very strong right out of the gate and he’s likely to be a plus-contributor in all of the big man categories as a rookie. While he’s not going to play 30 MPG, he should start out in the low 20s which is enough to keep him viable in 12-team leagues as we wait for him to get more comfortable and for his minutes to increase. Edey’s line will come with two potentially very troublesome issues. The first is his steal rate. As a senior, he averaged just 0.3 SPG. He could end up as the largest drag on the category in the association among 12-team options. The second issue is his FTAr. Edey is going to get to the line a lot. In his final season with Purdue, he averaged a whopping 11.2 FTA. Even as a rookie, he could average close to 4.0 FTA. A player who shoots in the low 70s while getting to the line that often will come with a sizable FT% hit. He should be drafted in re-draft leagues before the final round. However, he needs to be slotted into a friendly build to have a shot at the top 100. In rookie drafts, he’s a top-eight option.
10) Cody Williams (Jazz) – Williams has landed in a good spot but enters the league with a game that is a very poor fit for category leagues. Even if he is able to lock down a sizable role on a rebuilding Jazz team early in his career, he’ll need to develop significantly to get anywhere close to the standard league conversation. At Colorado, Jalen Williams’ brother produced an uninspiring 11.9 PPG on 55.2 FG%, 0.7 3PG on 41.5 3P%, 3.0 RPG, 1.6 APG, 0.6 SPG, and 0.7 BPG while shooting 71.4 percent from the charity stripe in 28.4 MPG. There is not much to like in that line. The strong FG% stands out, but it was made possible by his lack of outside game. He has solid physical tools which is why he went inside the top 10, but those tools may not be enough to turn him into a useful piece in category leagues. He is best paired with rebuilding dynasty squads even though he will likely have stretches this year where he is playing significant minutes with the Jazz hoping to win the Cooper Flagg sweepstakes.
11) Matas Buzelis (Bulls) – Buzelis is an excellent athlete who should be a strong source of blocks from the power forward position from day 1. With the now-defunct G League Ignite, Buzelis averaged 1.9 BPG in 31.0 MPG while also chipping in 14.1 PPG on 45.3 FG%, 0.9 3PG, 6.6 RPG, 1.9 APG, and 1.0 SPG. The 20-year-old is an exciting fantasy prospect not just because of his potential to be one of the few strong blocks sources who produces a well-rounded line, but also because of the team he is on. Patrick Williams continues to underwhelm, and while the Bulls did just give him a decent-sized contract, the forward is likely running out of chances. If Buzelis impresses as a rookie, the Bulls could start shifting Williams’ minutes to the rookie. It would not be surprising at all if Buzelis entered the 2025-2026 season as the Bulls’ starting four. He is a candidate for a top-five draft slot in rookie drafts.
12) Nikola Topic (Thunder) – It’s hard to get excited about prospects on the Thunder because the team is so deep and still has extra picks left over from the Russell Westbrook and Paul George trades. Topic does have an interesting skill set and was seen as a potential top-five pick before he tore his ACL, but with three stars already in place, and plenty of high-quality role players on the team, he could struggle to carve out a role large enough to make himself relevant in fantasy leagues. Topic was seen as the top passer in the draft. As an 18-year-old in the top Serbian league, he averaged an impressive 6.8 APG. He also scored very efficiently for a perimeter player so young. Topic shot 50.6 percent from the floor in 2023-2024. His outside shooting is a work in progress and will need to improve if he hopes to end up in the old Josh Giddey role. He shot just 26.5 percent from deep in his final season in the Adriatic League. There is some solid upside here, but fantasy managers looking to rolL the dice on the 6’6″ point guard will need to be patient. He may not step into a significant role for multiple years due to his injury and the presence of the top three, Cason Wallace, and Alex Caruso.
13) Devin Carter (Kings)- From a fantasy standpoint, Carter is one of this draft’s more exciting lottery picks. The combo guard’s game is a great fit for category leagues and he has landed with a team that doesn’t yet have a long-term solution at shooting guard. If he impresses early in his career, he could find himself in a big minute role sooner rather than later. In his final season at Providence, Carter produced intriguing numbers in all the counting categories. As a junior, he averaged 19.7 PPG, 2.5 3PG on 37.7 3P%, 8.7 RPG, 3.6 APG, 1.8 SPG, and 1.0 BPG in 35.3 MPG. His work on the boards and in the defensive categories is especially exciting since they give him a good shot at being useful even if he never develops into an above-average offensive player. In dynasty leagues, he’s a reasonable option inside the top 10 even though he is expected to miss the first half of his rookie season due to a torn labrum. In re-draft leagues, he needs to be watched closely once he returns. If Keon Ellis struggles in an expanded role, or if the Kings run into injury issues, Carter’s role could be significant enough to turn him into at least a strong defensive categories streamer.
14) Bub Carrington (Wizards) – Carrington is not the most exciting fantasy prospect in the draft, but he is one that needs to be watched closely, as he does have a fairly clear path to a significant role both this season and in the future. He can play both guard positions but the Wizards will likely try to turn him into a full-time point guard eventually. If he impresses early in his career, he could take over as the Wizards’ lead guard once the team is able to move off Jordan Poole. To be a useful fantasy asset, even in a starting role, his line will have to look different than it did in college. As a freshman at Pittsburgh, Bub averaged 13.8 PPG on 41.2 FG%, 2.0 3PG on 32.2 3P%, 5.2 RPG, 4.1 APG, and 0.6 SPG. Both his FG% and steal rate are issues, but the latter is much more concerning than the former. Almost every rotation-level player will improve their efficiency as they develop. FG% in college is also not a great predictor of FG% in the pros. However, steal rate is. Players who struggle to pick up swipes in college rarely put up big numbers in the category at the NBA level. There is a good chance Carrington will always be a notable drag on steals. That’s an issue because there are not a lot of top-50 guards who come with very poor steal rates. The ones that do reach that mark are all top-end offensive forces. Carrington is a reasonable pick just inside the top 10 in rookie drafts.
15) Kel’el Ware (Heat) – Ware would be one of this class’ top fantasy prospects if he landed with a different team. He is a strong rim protector who has the ability to stretch the floor. That is a skill set that usually leads to a player being valuable both on the court and in fantasy. As a sophomore at Indiana, Ware averaged a promising 15.9 PPG on 58.6 FG%, 0.6 3PG on 42.5 3P%, 9.9 RPG, 1.5 APG, 0.6 SPG, and 1.9 BPG in 32.2 MPG. While he struggled from the line in his final year in college (63.4 FT%), he likely won’t be a punt FT%-only type of big. He has solid touch around the rim and his shooting form is very good for a player of his size. In re-draft leagues, he could be a solid big man categories streamer right out of the gate. Unfortunately, it’s unclear when he will get the opportunity to play enough to be more than that. With Bam Adebayo only 27, Ware is unlikely to become a big minute player anytime soon unless Adebayo starts playing the four. Whether or not that happens is hard to project. Adebayo’s improved three-ball does make that more likely, and the All-Star did spend plenty of time at power forward during his Olympic run, but there are not many teams out there that roll with two-big lineups for extended stretches. Ware could end up as a strict backup for most of his rookie contract. Despite the concerns surrounding his role, he is a solid target inside the top 10 in rookie drafts. His game is a much better fit for category leagues than many of the players drafted ahead of
16) Jared McCain (Sixers) – McCain enters leagues as a top-end shooting prospect who will likely struggle to produce useful numbers in any of the non-scoring categories. During his lone season at Duke, the shooting guard produced a solid 14.3 PPG on 46.2 3PG% and 2.4 3PG on 41.4 3P% while connecting on 88.5 percent of his attempts from the charity stripe. However, he also managed just 5.0 RPG, 1.9 APG, 1.1 SPG, and 0.1 BPG despite playing 31.6 MPG. Those numbers suggest he’ll likely end up as a specialist at the pro level. His mediocre steals output is especially concerning. It is very difficult for even elite shooters to be more than back-end options in fantasy leagues if they are not plus-contributors in steals. McCain is unlikely to produce above-average numbers in the category as a player’s college steal rate is a fairly strong predictor of a player’s NBA steal rate. The Sixers are also a poor landing spot for the sharpshooter. With three high-usage stars locked in for at least the next three seasons, McCain is unlikely to end up in an on-ball role anytime soon. In re-draft leagues, he could be a reliable three-point streamer on nights when Paul George sits, but he is very unlikely to hold significant value at any point in his rookie season. In dynasty formats, his outlook is underwhelming due to the limited nature of his game. He is just a top-20 pick in rookie drafts.
17) Dalton Knecht (Lakers) – Knecht is another rookie who will likely end up as just a three-point specialist at the pro level. The newest Laker did come with an impressive FTAr during his lone season at Tennessee, but given that he was usually the oldest player on the court, his draw rate (5.7 FTA) is not something we should get excited about. It becomes even less interesting when you realize it was attached to a mediocre connection rate (77.2 FT%). Nothing else in his senior season line suggests he will be more than a points, threes, and not much else option if he does eventually develop into a reliable rotation player. In his final year of college, Knecht produced 21.7 PPG on 45.8 FG%, 2.6 3PG on 39.7 3P%, 4.9 RPG, 1.8 APG, 0.7 SPG, and 0.6 BPG in 30.6 MPG. He is not someone to target in dynasty drafts. Players who can produce useful numbers in points and threes but don’t help elsewhere are a dime a dozen. In re-draft leagues, he’s extremely unlikely to end up as more than a threes streamer.
18) Tristan da Silva (Magic) – As a four-year college player, da Silva is likely a little more NBA-ready than most players in this range. However, since he’s been drafted to a Magic team whose two centerpieces play at the two forward spots, it’s hard to see how he will carve out a significant role in Orlando, both in the short term and the long term. He looks destined for a backup role. Some players can be useful in limited minutes, but da Silva is unlikely to be one of those players. He was not a particularly strong per-minute producer at Colorado, even though he was playing against younger players every night. As a senior, he managed 16.0 PPG on 49.3 FG%, 1.9 3PG on 39.5 3P%, 5.1 RPG, 2.4 APG, 1.1 SPG, and 0.6 BPG in 33.8 MPG. In rookie drafts, da Silva should not be selected inside the top 20.
19) Ja’Kobe Walter (Raptors) – The Raptors are a decent landing spot for Walter with the team lacking depth. Toronto’s starting lineup is a respectable group, but its bench leaves plenty to be desired. It’s possible Walter ends up as a notable part of the rotation for most of the season. However, given the current start of his game, the rookie guard likely won’t be able to take advantage of the situation. Walter is a scoring guard who has yet to show he can score efficiently. During his freshman year at Baylor, he averaged 14.5 PPG with 37.6/34.1/79.2 shooting splits. Even in punt FG%, he’s unlikely to be relevant in fantasy circles this year or next. The rest of his line at Baylor was lacking. Walter averaged just 2.1 3PG, 4.4 RPG 1.4 APG, and 1.1 SPG in 32.3 MPG. The Raptor is likely to end up as just a bench scorer down the road. Gradey Dick is the superior shooting guard prospect in Toronto.
20) Jaylon Tyson (Cavaliers) – Tyson is not going to have a significant role this year as long as the Cavaliers’ starting backcourt is somewhat healthy. The rookie guard is going to be stuck behind two All-Star guards and Caris LeVert. However, that may not be the setup Tyson finds himself in next year. There were some rumblings that Darius Garland is unhappy playing second fiddle to Donovan Mitchell and that Rich Paul was going to push for a trade if Mitchell extended with the Cavaliers. If Garland is moved for a wing or a big, then Tyson could find himself in a fairly significant role. If he does, he’ll likely produce a useful line. Tyson didn’t produce standout numbers in any category during his junior year with the California Golden Bears, but his line also didn’t have any notable holes in it. In 34.3 MPG, Tyson averaged a well-rounded 19.6 PPG on 46.5 FG%, 1.6 3PG, 6.8 RPG, 3.5 APG, and 1.2 SPG. He’s not a strong short-term option, but he is a more interesting long-term prospect than most of the players drafted outside of the lottery due to his ability to produce useful numbers in almost all of the counting categories.
21) Yves Missi (Pelicans) – Missi has landed in a good spot. He’s a center on a team that currently lacks a starting-level five. Unfortunately, he’s also very raw, so by the time he’s ready for big minutes, the Pelicans may have found their long-term solution at the five. Missi is a seven-foot, athletic rim runner whose ceiling is in the Clint Capela range. As a freshman at Baylor, he was a strong per-minute producer in all the big categories who did very little in the guard categories while struggling at the line. In 22.9 MPG, Missi averaged 10.7 PPG on 61.4 FG%, 5.6 RPG, 0.4 APG, 0.6 SPG, and 1.5 BPG while shooting 61.6 percent from the charity stripe. While traditional bigs still have some use in fantasy circles, they aren’t quite as valuable as they used to be. Strong numbers in the big man categories used to be enough to turn a center into an early-round asset in builds like punt FT%. These days, unless a player dominates the big man categories, it is very hard to get into that range while being a zero in threes, assists, and steals. In a beefy role, Missi would likely come with a fairly high floor, but a somewhat limited ceiling. He should be monitored in re-draft leagues due to the Pelicans’ hole at the five. In rookie drafts, he’s a decent option inside the top 15.
22) DaRon Holmes (Nuggets) – Holmes was looking like one of the more interesting non-lottery picks before he suffered a torn Achilles in Summer League. He enters the league with a fantasy-friendly game, but we won’t know if his solid college production translates to the pros until next season with the big man expected to miss all of the 2024-2025 campaign. He will need to be monitored very closely once he does return because his skill set is intriguing. Holmes has the ability to protect the rim and stretch the floor. As a junior at Dayton, he averaged 20.4 PPG on 54.4 FG%, 1.0 3PG, 8.5 RPG, 2.6 APG, 0.9 SPG, and 2.1 BPG. He’s not as exciting as those numbers suggest since they were produced at mid-major, but anytime a potential great shot blocker with range enters the league, we need to pay attention. If he can establish himself as Nikola Jokic’s backup, he could end up as a high-end streaming option as soon as next year.
23) AJ Johnson (Bucks) – Johnson is just a name to file away for later. The 19-year-old comes with some intriguing physical tools but is very raw. It’s unlikely he will crack the Bucks rotation for at least the next couple of years and will need to develop significantly to stick in the league. Johnson is a combo guard with very good athleticism and length and not much experience. The American spent most of his 2023-2024 season glued to the bench of the Illawarra Hawks of the NBL. In Australia, Johnson played just 7.9 MPG over 25 games and averaged 2.8 PPG on 35.5 FG%, 0.3 3PG on 28.6 3P%, 1.3 RPG, 0.7 APG, and 0.2 BPG. His Summer League performance also suggests he’s nowhere close to being a rotation-level player. Over his five appearances for the Bucks’ Summer League squad, he averaged 11.2 PPG on 32.3 FG%, 2.0 3PG, 3.4 RPG, 2.8 APG, and 0.6 SPG. Johnson is one of the least interesting first-round picks.
24) Kyshawn George (Wizards) – George is one of the only rookies in his draft range who could carve out a 20+ MPG role early in his maiden NBA season. With Malcolm Brogdon out for at least the first month of the year, there is a fairly clear path to 20+ MPG for the former Hurricane. He’s not going to get enough run to make him relevant in all but the deepest of fantasy leagues, but he should play enough to give us a good idea of whether or not he has a decent shot at eventually turning into a standard league option. The Wizard is a solid shooter with good size who could come with a plus-steal rate. Over his 31 games with Miami, he averaged 7.6 PPG on 42.6 FG%, 1.7 3PG on 40.8 3P%, 3.0 RPG, 2.2 APG, and 0.9 SPG in 23.0 MPG. He’s also shown flashes as a playmaker, but it will likely be a while before he is put in a position where he has the chance to produce a decent assist rate. He is not a high-upside option, but he is worth considering inside the top 20 in rookie drafts.
25) Pacome Dadiet (Knicks) – Dadiet is another rookie who is unlikely to get decent run anytime soon. The Frenchman played just 14.9 MPG for Ratiopharm Ulm in the EuroCup in his final season in Europe. Over his 18 appearances with the German squad, he averaged 6.4 PPG on 45.2 FG%, 0.8 3PG on 31.1 3P% 1.6 RPG, 0.3 APG, and 0.6 SPG. His per-minute steal rate is very good for a player his age in Europe, but there is nothing else in his line that suggests he’ll be fantasy-relevant over the next couple of seasons. Dadiet projects as a three-and-D type of player. He’s big for a small forward and is a solid athlete. His three-ball needs work, but it’s not in a bad spot for a player as young as he is. With Dadiet being a long-term project, he’s not someone we need to pay attention to in re-draft leagues and is not someone to target in rookie drafts.
26) Dillon Jones (Thunder) – Jones is one of this season’s older rookies. He’s already 23 and spent four years at Weber State. As a senior in the Big Sky conference, he put up a flashy 20.8 PPG on 48.9 FG%, 1.1 3PG on 32.4 3P%, 9.8 RPG, 5.2 APG, and 2.0 SPG while knocking down 85.7 percent of his free throw attempts. While those are intriguing numbers and suggest the forward will have a fantasy-friendly game at the pro level, they are also numbers we need to take with a grain of salt due to his age and the conference he played in. Upperclassmen who put up big numbers at mid-majors often don’t amount to much at the pro level. He has also landed with a team that likely won’t have minutes available for him over the next couple of years. The Thunder are deep on the wing and still have some extra picks coming their way from the Russell Westbrook and Paul George trades. He should spend most of his rookie year in the G League. While Jones is more interesting than most of the rookies drafted towards the end of the first due to the nature of his game, he’s not someone to target aggressively since it’s hard to picture how he becomes a big minute player on the Thunder.
27) Terrence Shannon Jr. (Wolves) – Shannon is a 24-year-old rookie who spent five years in college. He spent three seasons at Texas Tech before transferring to Illinois after his junior year. As a fifth-year senior, he put up 23.0 PPG on 37.5 FG%, 2.4 3PG on 36.2 3P%, 4.0 RPG, 2.3 APG, 1.0 SPG, and 0.9 BPG in 33.9 MPG. Those are solid numbers, but given he was playing against much younger players every night, they are not numbers to read too much into. Despite his age, Shannon is unlikely to be a part of the Wolves rotation anytime soon. He’s a shooting guard which is not ideal when you play on a team with Anthony Edwards. The Wolves bringing Donte DiVincenzo complicates matters even further and he’ll be stuck behind Nickeil Alexander-Walker as well. Pass on him in rookie drafts for players with clearer paths to fantasy relevancy.
28) Ryan Dunn (Suns) – Dunn is a Matisse Thybulle type of prospect. He’s not an NBA-level offensive player, but his defense could be strong enough to earn him minutes despite his limitations on the other end. As a sophomore at Virginia, he managed just 8.1 PPG, 0.2 3PG, and 0.8 APG. However, he also produced an exciting 6.9 RPG, 1.3 SPG, and 2.3 BPG in just 27.5 MPG. Dunn is a player who could become relevant in fantasy leagues as soon as this year. He may not be in the rotation immediately, but with Bradley Beal and Kevin Durant both being very fragile, he could eventually find himself in a 20+ MPG role. The defensive stud wouldn’t need much more run than that to be a useful streamer in category leagues. Over his four Summer League appearances, he averaged 1.3 SPG and 1.5 BPG in just 25.4 MPG, and through his first four preseason appearances, he’s put up 1.3 SPG and 1.8 BPG in 22.9 MPG. Dunn is a flawed prospect, but one who has a clearer path to fantasy relevancy than most of the prospects picked in his range.
29) Isaiah Collier (Jazz) – Collier was once a contender for the top spot in the draft before a very rough season at USC sent his stock spiraling. The point guard showed a very shaky jumper and was exceptionally turnover-prone, especially early in his freshman year. Over his 27 appearances with the Trojans, he averaged 16.3 PPG on 49.0 FG%, 1.0 3PG on 33.8 3P%, 2.9 RPG, 4.3 APG, 1.5 SPG, and 3.3 TOPG in 30.0 MPG. Outside of his excellent steal rate, there was not a lot in that line to get excited about. However, he is still worth keeping an eye on this year and worth drafting inside the top 20 in rookie drafts due to the team he landed with. With the Jazz not looking to win anything but the Cooper Flagg sweepstakes this year, Collier could eventually find himself in a significant role during the second half of the season. Utah is also not a bad landing spot for his long-term outlook. Keyonte George is coming off a mediocre rookie season. If Collier impresses this year and George doesn’t take a significant leap, Utah could start looking at Collier as their point guard of the future.
30) Baylor Scheierman (Celtics) – Scheierman is a 24-year-old rookie Boston is going to try to turn into another Sam Hauser. The newest Celtic is an elite shooter who doesn’t project to be more than a three-point specialist at the pro level. As a fifth-year senior at Creighton, he averaged 18.5 PPG on 44.8 FG%, 3.1 3PG on 38.1 3P%, 9.0 RPG, 3.9 APG, and 0.9 SPG in 36.8 MPG. It’s possible he finds his way into the rotation at some point over the next year or two. His advanced age and potential NBA-readiness likely played a factor in the Celtics’ decision to go after him. However, with Boston still loaded, it’s hard to see how Scheierman ends up as more than a three-point streamer. He’s not going to put on-ball and he’s not going to contribute anything on the defensive end. Scheierman is a slightly better bet than some of the rookies drafted towards the end of the first to stick in the league, but with his ceiling so low, he’s not someone we should pay much attention to in rookie drafts.
Rookies that should be drafted in standard re-draft formats:
Alex Sarr – Before the final rounds but not inside the top 100
Zach Edey – Before the final rounds but not inside the top 100
Reed Sheppard – Final-round flier
Zaccharie Risacher – Final-round flier
Rookies worth monitoring as they could become fantasy-relevant as the season progresses:
Ron Holland
Rob Dillingham
Donovan Clingan
Matas Buzelis
Devin Carter (Likely to return in January or February)
Bub Carrington
Kel’el Ware
Yves Missi
Ryan Dunn
Isaiah Collier
Tier 1:
Reed Sheppard
Alex Sarr
Tier 2:
Ron Holland
Rob Dillingham
Donovan Clingan
Tier 3:
Matas Buzelis
Zaccharie Risacher
Zach Edey
Tier 4:
Stephon Castle
Devin Carter
Kel’el Ware
Bub Carrington
Tidjane Salaun
Tier 5:
Tyler Smith (SRP)
Nikola Topic
Isaiah Collier
DaRon Holmes
Cody Williams
Jaylon Tyson
Yves Missi
Kyle Filipowski (SRP)
Johnny Furphy (SRP)
Tier 6:
Ryan Dunn
Kyshawn George
Jared McCain
Tier 7:
Ja’Kobe Walter
Dalton Knecht
Baylor Scheierman
Pacome Dadiet
Dillon Jones
Tier 8:
AJ Johnson
Tristan da Silva
Terrence Shannon Jr.