May 2nd Box Score Analysis (8 Games)
Blazers 129 Celtics 119
Carmelo Anthony: Melo is only a three-category player, but lately, he’s been doing some damn good work in those three categories. Anthony has scored at least 12 points in each of his last 11 games and has hit at least two threes in eight of those games. That is some impressive consistency and makes the veteran one of the safest points and threes streamers potentially on your wire. He’s also been providing his owners with sneaky FT% impact. Melo is not getting to the charity stripe a ton (1.6 FTA over the last month), but he almost never misses when he does (96.0 FT% over the last month).
Enes Kanter: Kanter is a nice rebounds and FG% streamer at this point, but that’s it with the Blazers leaning into Nurk to try to avoid the play-in. I would only call him a must-own player in 16-team leagues. Over his last eight, Kanter has played just 17.6 MPG and has averaged only 8.3 PPG on 59.2 FG%, 7.6 RPG, and 0.5 BPG.
Evan Fournier: We still don’t have an update on Brown, but the injury did not look good. If he does have to miss time, Fournier would become a nice points and threes option. I would not be running to the shooting guard until we learn a little more about the Brown situation. When Tatum, Brown, and Kemba are healthy, Fournier is useless. Over his last six, he’s averaged an ugly 7.3 PPG on 34.0 FG% and 1.5 3PG.
Robert Williams: Yes, the Celtics’ schedule is a bummer this week with only three games on it and none until Wednesday, but you have to keep Williams on your roster. Even in three games, Time Lord can swing a matchup due to his upside on the defensive end, elite FG% impact, and solid boards. I wouldn’t worry too much about the move to the bench. He played his normal minutes and ended up getting more run than Thompson.
Heat 121 Hornets 111
Trevor Ariza: Ariza would be a must-own if the Heat had four games this week. Unfortunately, they only have three, and after Tuesday night’s game against the Mavericks, they are off until Friday. That lull in the schedule will turn Ariza into a drop in most leagues. He’ll be a strong pickup late in the week with the Heat playing on both Friday and Sunday. Look his way if you need boards, defensive stats, and low-end threes. Over his last seven, Ariza has averaged 9.9 PPG, 1.7 3PG, 5.6 RPG, 2.0 APG, 1.4 SPG, and 0.9 BPG.
Goran Dragic: Dragic is worth streaming for points, threes, and dimes until Herro is back, but he’s not worth using a move on until late in the week due to the Heat’s schedule. Over his last three, in 29.1 MPG, Dragic has averaged a useful 15.0 PPG, 2.0 3PG, 5.3 APG, and 0.7 SPG.
Devonte’ Graham (Drop): Graham is struggling to get over a knee issue and has already been ruled out of Tuesday night’s game against the Pistons. At this point in the season, I would drop Graham, even in deep settings. Ball coming back kills his upside and even one more sit this week would make him a disastrous hold.
Malik Monk: With Graham out at least one game, Monk becomes a very strong streaming option for those in need of points and threes. His nightly upside in both categories as the Hornets’ third guard is significant. On the year, Monk is producing an outstanding 21.3 PP36 and 3.6 3P36 and is doing it without tanking his owners’ FG% (46.0 FG%). The Hornets’ schedule adds to his appeal. Their four-game week doesn’t start until tomorrow.
Kings 111 Mavericks 99
Delon Wright (Pick Up): With both Fox and Haliburton down, and the Kings playing four games from Tuesday to Sunday this week, Wright becomes a must-own player. He’ll get the keys to the Kings’ offense, and we know that he can produce mid-round numbers as a team’s lead guard. In the 31 games that he started for the Pistons, Wright averaged a very helpful 11.1 PPG, 0.9 3PG, 4.9 RPG, 5.4 APG, 1.7 SPG, and 0.5 BPG. With the ability to produce decent numbers in most categories, Delon is a nice fit for nearly every matchup. If you play in a deeper league where Delon is long gone, consider Terence Davis. We will see more of the sophomore going forward, and he should produce some nice numbers in threes (3.2 3P36) and steals (1.3 SP36) if his minutes jump into the mid-20s.
Marvin Bagley (Pick Up): Bagley is still a very flawed player, but with the Kings running out of credible scoring threats, he should be fairly useful this week. We know he can do good work in the popcorn categories (14.0 PPG, 7.4 RPG), and he will be a small help in FG% (50.7 FG%). The big man is someone to stay away from if FT% is going to be a deciding category. Despite averaging only 2.9 FTA, Bagley comes with one of the largest FT% hits in the association (57.0 FT%).
Dorian Finney-Smith (Hold): Don’t you dare drop him. DFS has been a mid-round player lately and with the Mavericks having four games in Week 19, he could drop top-50 numbers on your opponent. Despite this dud dragging down his averages, DFS has produced top-60 numbers over the last 30 days with averages that include 12.4 PPG on 49.7 FG%, 2.8 3PG, 6.4 RPG, 1.1 SPG, and only 0.9 TOPG. He should be owned and started in all Roto leagues.
Jalen Brunson: Brunson hasn’t been having enough nights like this lately to be worth holding outside of 16-team leagues, even with the Mavericks having four games this week. He can be somewhat useful as a points streamer since he usually won’t hurt you in FG% (51.9 FG%), but in standard leagues, he has no value beyond that. Over the last two weeks, Brunson has averaged a forgettable 10.6 PPG, 0.6 3PG, 3.5 APG, and 0.4 SPG.
Knicks 122 Rockets 97
Reggie Bullock (Pick Up): Alec Burks will return this week and will likely take a few minutes away from Bullock. However, I would still not hesitate to add the veteran if you need triples with the Knicks having four games this week. Even if his minutes drop from the mid-30s to the high-20s, Bullock should still give you double-digit threes this week. Over the last month, in 31.6 MPG, Bullock has averaged a whopping 3.6 3PG. He should also score in the mid-teens, but the rest of the Knick’s line should be forgettable.
Taj Gibson: With Nerlens Noel banged up and the Knicks playing four games in Week 19, Gibson is worth considering in most leagues for his ability to provide useful numbers in the big-man categories. Over the last month, in only 22.0 MPG, the veteran has averaged 6.1 RPG and 1.1 BPG while shooting 69.0 percent from the field. He won’t give you much in the scoring categories, but in an expanded role, Gibson will produce a respectable steal rate for a big (1.3 SP36).
Christian Wood: Wood is droppable. After last night’s game, he said that he may have to sit a couple of games due to some nagging issues with his ankle and quad. With only three games on the schedule this week, that is a death blow for his value. Losing Wood is not as big of a hit as you would think. His level of play has cratered as the year has gone on. The Rocket has failed to post top-100 numbers over the last three months.
Kenyon Martin (Pick Up): Martin is worth grabbing with Wood possibly out for the week. He should slide into the starting lineup, play 30+ a night, and be a decent source of big-man numbers and a low-end source of points. Over the three most recent games where he’s hit 30 minutes, Martin has averaged 15.7 PPG, 0.7 3PG, and 6.3 RPG. On the year, Martin is producing a very encouraging 1.6 BP36 and is shooting 51.2 percent from the field.
Raptors 121 Lakers 114
Khem Birch: We will forgive Birch for this one since his first four games of the week were excellent. He likely swung quite a few championships. With the Raptors only having three games this week, he’s droppable. I wouldn’t call him a must-drop, but even one bad game from the Canadian would turn him into just a low-end option this week, and therefore a bad hold.
Malachi Flynn: If this is your finals, I would drop Flynn. With the Raptors only playing three games this week and their regulars still playing, he’s too risky to hold. If this week is your semis, there is an argument for holding him because he should be solid next week when the Raptors are eliminated. However, I would lean towards dropping and just figuring out next week, next week. Unless the Raptors start to sit both starting guards at the same time, Flynn will just be a low-end player this week with a bad schedule.
Montrezl Harrell: After tonight’s game against the Nuggets, Harrell should be hitting the wire in most leagues. Since Andre Drummond came to town, Harrell has turned into a FG% specialist and is not worth holding onto with the Lakers off on both Tuesday and Wednesday. With the Lakers’ defense all of a sudden looking shaky, it wouldn’t surprise me if Marc Gasol started taking some of his minutes either. Over his last six, in 16.9 MPG, Harrell has averaged 10.7 PPG on 76.5 FG%, 3.7 RPG, 0.7 APG, and 0.7 BPG.
LeBron James: This is a very tricky situation. LeBron is out for tonight’s game against the Nuggets and is questionable after that. For now, I would hold. The back-to-back later in the week is scary, but due to the opponents, and the Lakers’ current spot in the standings, I do think there is a chance that he plays in both ends and finishes with three games this week. The back-to-back comes against the Clippers and the Blazers. I wouldn’t completely rule out a sit against the Clippers, but if he sits against the Blazers, then you know that he’s really struggling. If the Lakers lose that, they lose the tiebreak with Portland and will likely be headed towards the play-in. Hopefully, we get a clearer picture tonight.