R9) Daniel Gafford – Gafford is a great option for teams who loaded up on the guard categories early and need to play catchup in FG% and blocks. It’s hard to say what his role will look like when Thomas Bryant returns sometime in December or January, but until then, Gafford should rank among the league leaders in both categories. After the trade to the Wizards, the big man needed only 17.7 MPG to average 10.1 PPG on 68.1 FG% and 1.8 BPG. I would expect Montrezl Harrell to receive the majority of the Wizards’ center minutes until Bryant is back, but Gafford’s minutes should jump into the low-20s, which is enough to justify grabbing him at this price. In addition to the excellent FG% and blocks numbers, the third-year man will help managers win rebounds (10.5 RP36) and turnovers (1.7 TOP36). Like most late-round big men, he will hurt you at the line (66.7 FT%), from deep (0.0 3P36), and in the assists column (1.1 AP36).
R9) Kelly Olynyk – Olynyk is going to end up in every single one of my punting guides. And for good reason. As we saw last season, his upside is significant, and since he gives his managers a little bit of everything and isn’t super dependent on any category to drive his value, he can work with any team build. The Canadian actually comes with a decent steal rate for a big (1.4 SP36) but does enough elsewhere to hold significant value when that impressive steal rate doesn’t matter. In 2020-2021, the newest Piston was a top-60 per-minute player and produced a very impressive 17.0 PP36, 2.3 3P3G, 8.8 RP36, 3.7 AP36, and 0.8 BP36 while shooting 48.4 percent from the field and 82.9 percent from the line. In Detroit, he should be the third big and see minutes in the mid-to-high 20s. That may not sound like a lot, but when you are as productive on a per-minute basis as Olynyk, it’s enough to crack the top-100 with the potential for much, much more if one of Jerami Grant or Isaiah Stewart were to go down.
R9) Harrison Barnes – If Barnes can maintain last season’s efficiency numbers, he will be a very nice pick for the punt steals build in this range. In 2020-2021, the King connected on 49.7 percent of his 11.1 FGA and 83.0 percent of his 4.1 FTA. That is not a lock, as both numbers are above what he normally does, but neither is a huge outlier, so a top-80 finish in this friendly build (0.7 SPG) is very possible. Last season, Barnes cracked the top 65 when steals were thrown out. The veteran is more attractive than most of the wings in this range due to those percentages and due to his very strong rebounding rate. I don’t think he’ll match last season’s 6.6 RPG, as that number was inflated by all of the games that Marvin Bagley missed, but close to 6.0 RPG a night is a realistic expectation. Barnes has improved as a playmaker (3.5 APG) and should provide his managers with about average numbers in the points category (16.1 PPG). Barnes comes with a notable blocks hit (0.2 BPG) and is likely going to be a below-average source of triples for his position (1.7 3PG).
R9) Al Horford – Last season was a frustrating one for those who drafted Horford in the middle rounds due to all of the nights off and the eventual early shutdown, but it was still an encouraging year for Horford’s future fantasy prospects. After an ugly season with the Sixers, he bounced back in a pretty notable way in Oklahoma City. The veteran was a top-30 per-minute player with the Thunder and only needed 27.9 MPG to finish inside of the top-60 on a per-game basis. He contribute useful numbers in every category except FG% (45.0 FG%) last season despite the somewhat limited playing time. In 2020-2021, Horford averaged a very useful 14.2 PPG, 2.0 3PG, 6.7 RPG, 3.4 APG, and 0.9 BPG while shooting 81.8 percent from the line. In Boston, he should see minutes in the mid-to-high 20s, so most of that line is repeatable. The points won’t hold, and the threes will likely come down slightly, but he should still do enough to return quite a bit of value at this price. Those assists are especially valuable. Most players this late are major drags on the dimes category, so selecting a player like Horford who has a neutral impact on the category will help you make up ground on your opponents.
Other Round 9 Options: Wendell Carter Jr., Andrew Wiggins, Saddiq Bey
R10) Evan Fournier – Grabbing Fournier towards the end of the draft almost always works out. The shooting guard has cracked the top 95 in this build in three of the past four seasons, including a borderline top-50 finish in 2017-2018. While the move to New York will take a bite out of his usage rate (22.2 USG%), that dip should be at least partially offset by an increase in minutes. Fournier only played 30.0 MPG last season. It’s possible that he stays in that range due to the Knicks solid guard depth, but betting on Thibs playing his starters a reasonable amount of minutes is never a great idea, especially if that starter was just given a contract that pays him almost $20 million a year. It would not be surprising at all to see Fournier in the 33 MPG range, and that range is not his ceiling. The newest Knick should once again be a big help in points (17.1 PPG) and threes (2.8 3PG) while providing low-end, but useful dimes (3.4 APG). There are not a lot of assists available late, so grabbing a player like Fournier who produces about average numbers in the category will allow you to make up ground on a lot of your opponents. Fournier will likely have a neutral impact on the percentages (45.7 FG%, 78.8 FT%) and will hurt you more than most guards will on the boards (3.0 RPG).
R10) De’Andre Hunter – Hunter is a bit of a mystery. His big run last season lasted only 18 games and change. Since the sample size is low, and since the impressive start was driven by some incredible efficiency numbers from two, I’m skeptical that he’s as good as his early-season run suggests. If he starts to go earlier than this, I’m out, but at this price, I don’t mind rolling the dice. This is a build that Hunter is likely always going to gain value in. Through two years in the association, the Hawk is sitting at only 0.7 SPG, which is actually an improvement on what he managed in his final season at Virginia. Even if his big run at the beginning of the 2020-2021 season proves to be a hot streak, Hunter should help his managers win points (15.0 PPG) and FT% (85.9 FT% on 3.7 FTA) while providing useful numbers in the rebounding category (4.8 RPG). I would also expect close-to-average triples (1.8 3PG) and a good-sized assist hit (1.9 APG).
Other Round 10 Options: Duncan Robinson, Kelly Oubre, Aaron Gordon
R11) Bojan Bogdanovic – Teams punting steals should come away from the draft in great shape in at least one of the percentages categories. Bogdanovic hurts your odds of finishing near the top of the standings in FG% (43.9 FG% on 12.8 FGA), but no late-round pick will boost your chances in FT% as much as the Croatian will. In 2020-2021, Bogdanovic was a top-25 contributor in FT% (87.9 FT% on 3.7 FTA), and in 2019-2020, he had a top-eight impact on the category (90.3 FT% on 4.4 FTA). In addition to his excellence at the charity stripe, Bogdanovic will be one of the better sources of points (17.0 PPG) and threes (2.5 3PG) available late. Watch your blocks closely if you grab Bogdanovic. He will be an exceptionally large drag on the category (0.1 BPG).
R11) Keldon Johnson – Johnson is a good bet to break out this year. However, he’s unlikely to be all that valuable in fantasy because he has so many holes in his line. Last season, he was low-end points (12.8 PPG), strong boards (6.0 RPG), and nothing else. To make Johnson more than a late-rounder, we need to punt one of his weak categories. Steals fits the bill. The Spur averaged only 0.6 SPG last season and didn’t do much in the category in college either. Despite his lack of upside, Johnson makes sense late because he’s going to be a better source of points than most players that will go off of the board towards the end of the draft. Players who score in the mid-to-high teens like Johnson should are very hard to find this late. The incoming boost in touches and minutes should also lessen the threes (0.9 3PG) and dimes (1.8 APG) hits that accompany the third-year man. If his minutes jump into the low-30s, Johnson should end up as one of the better sources of rebounds from the wing.
R11) Mo Bamba – Bamba’s already considerable upside is greatly enhanced by the punt steals build. Through three seasons in the association, the big man is producing only 0.8 SP36. On a per-minute basis, fewer than 20 players were more productive in 2020-2021 when steals were ignored. Due to his per-minute dominance, Bamba only needs minutes in the low-20s to return value at his late-round price tag. He should get that in Orlando. Wendell Carter Jr. is going to start but is unlikely to get out of the high-20s unless he breaks out. If Bamba were to close the gap on Carter, then a mid-round finish in this build would be possible. The center can be helpful in a small role because he produces elite per-minute numbers in rebounds (13.2 RP36) and blocks (2.9 BP36). Bamba also has a decent three-ball (1.9 3P36) and scores at a good clip (18.2 PP36). The main drawback here is his assist rate. Grabbing Bamba late is going to make your issue with dimes even worse (1.7 AP36).
Other Round 11 Options: Ivica Zubac, Reggie Jackson, Bobby Portis
R12) Will Barton – Barton is a high-ceiling/low-floor player who fits this build well. Over the last four years, the Nugget has finished inside of the top 70 in punt steals twice and has failed to crack the top 150 in this build twice. Barton is not a sure thing, but at this price, we’ll take that risk. Most of the players available this late have no shot at finishing inside of the top 70. With Jamal Murray likely out until after the All-Star break, Barton will be the Nuggets’ third option for most of the year. The bump in responsibilities means that we should see his counting numbers improve across the board. I would expect scoring numbers in the mid-teens (12.7 PPG), about two threes per night (1.8 3PG), and close to four dimes (3.2 APG). Those dimes are the most important part of that line and make Barton one of the strongest contributors in the category available at this point in the draft. Make sure you grab some extra FG% impact early if you plan on targeting Barton late. He came with a decent FG% hit in 2020-2021 (42.6 FG% on 10.9 FGA) and the incoming increase in volume could make that hit even larger.
R12) Malik Beasley – Beasley has no shot at matching last season’s top-75 punt steals per-game finish now that Anthony Edwards has arrived, but at this price, he doesn’t need to in order to be a good pick. This is a friendly build for the gunner (0.8 SPG), and even with Edwards being a different player than he was early in the season when Beasley was healthy, the 24-year-old should still be a better source of points and threes than almost every player available this late. He’s going to score in the mid-teens (19.6 PPG), average close to three triples a night (3.4 3PG), and provide low-end FT% impact (86.1 FT%). We will gladly take that from our final-round pick. Beasley doesn’t do much in the assists category (2.4 APG), but at this point in the draft, last year’s average is not a particularly damaging number. The bigger concern here is his FG%. All of those three-point attempts are going to lead to a material FG% hit (43.7 FG% on 16.0 FTA).
R12) Duncan Robinson – If you start this build with one of the first-round bigs, threes can end up being an issue. It’s unlikely that you’ll finish in a below-average position in triples when you punt steals, but ideally, this build will come away from draft night in a dominant position in the category. A punt steals team needs to be winning threes consistently. Robinson can turn a good threes team into a great one by himself. There is no reason why he can’t match last year’s 3.5 3PG. The Heat didn’t add any depth one the wing, so his role should not change in a significant way. Threes are really all you are getting from Robinson. If your team is in a good spot in the category going into the final rounds, take him off of your draft board. In 2020-2021, the sharpshooter averaged only 13.1 PPG, 3.5 RPG, 1.8 APG, and 0.3 BPG.
Other Round 12 Options: Joe Ingles, Mason Plumlee, Danilo Gallinari, Jaden McDaniels
R13) Marcus Morris – Morris could be the Clippers’ second option this year with Kawhi Leonard possibly out for the entire regular season. That role wouldn’t be guaranteed to turn the forward into a useful fantasy asset since his line is very limited outside of the scoring categories, but the bump up the totem pole does make him worth considering near the end of that draft in punt steals. It’s possible that he rediscovers the form that made him a top-100 player in his brief stint with the Knicks. The bump in volume that Morris receives could be significant. In 2020-2021, he averaged 12.0 FGA36 with Kawhi on the court. When Leonard sat, that number jumped all the way to 16.3 FGA36. It would be surprising if Morris did not improve on last season’s 13.4 PPG and 2.5 3PG. If you don’t need points and threes, stay away. Morris will hurt you in all of the other counting categories (4.1 RPG, 1.0 APG, 0.3 BPG).
R13) Joe Harris – Since this build can dig itself a bit of a hole in FG% early due to its need to chase assists, late-round points and threes options who do not drag down your FG% hold extra value here. There are not a lot of those available late. Most of the three-point bombers that will go in the final rounds shoot in the low-40s. Harris is one of the few exceptions. The Net is one of the most accurate three-point shooters of all time, and his insane efficiency from deep allows him to connect on close to half of his shots. Harris cracked the 50 percent mark last season (50.5 FG%) and has shot better than 48.6 percent from the field four seasons in a row. His efficiency, points (14.1 PPG), and threes (3.1 3PG) allowed him to finish inside of the top 75 in nine-category punt steals (0.7 SPG) in 2020-2021. A repeat of that finish is unlikely as the Nets’ big guns are probably not going to miss as much time this year, but a top-100 finish is still very doable.
Other Round 13 Options: Monte Morris, Seth Curry, Otto Porter, Tim Hardaway Jr., Serge Ibaka, Terrence Ross, Malachi Flynn, Josh Hart, Nicolas Batum, Khem Birch, Reggie Bullock, Gary Trent Jr., LaMarcus Aldridge, Jordan Poole, Tyrese Maxey, Tyler Herro
Deep League Options: Xavier Tillman, Davis Bertans, Kyle Kuzma, Derrick Rose, Goran Dragic, Josh Richardson, Brandon Clarke, Jae Crowder, Cameron Johnson, Maxi Kleber, Kendrick Nunn, Josh Giddey, Daniel Theis, Terance Mann, Kevin Huerter, Jae Crowder