Apr. 12 Box Score Analysis (8 Games)
Sixers 113 Mavericks 95
Danny Green (Hold): Green has had back-to-back rough games, but I am not dropping in any category league. He’s been playing too well lately to not be given some serious leash. Despite the two ugly lines, Green is still ranked inside of the top-35 over the last month and the top-80 over the last two weeks. The Sixers finish this week on Friday, but unless dropping Green is the only way to swing your matchup, do not drop him. After this week, the Sixers play four games every week until the end of the season.
Matisse Thybulle (Pick Up): If defensive categories are going to be swing categories in your next playoff matchup, pick up Thybulle immediately. He will be a very popular streamer during the fantasy playoffs and you don’t want to risk missing out. With the Sixers playing four games a week from next week until the buzzer, Thybulle is going to have the ability to swing steals while being a difference-maker in swats. Over the last month, Thybulle has averaged an elite 1.4 SPG and 1.2 BPG.
Dorian Finney-Smith: All of the Mavericks’ role players are tricky holds with the team having three games next week. Outside of Luka and Zinger, no one on that team profiles as a top-100 player in Week 17. I’m not rushing to add any of them, but they are a group that I will be trying to add towards the end of Week 17 due to their Week 18 five-game schedule. It’s a shame that the Mavs have a tough upcoming schedule because DFS has been very good lately. Over the last two weeks, the forward has been a top-55 and has averaged 11.3 PPG on 44.0 FG%, 2.6 3PG, 7.9 RPG, 0.9 SPG, and 0.9 BPG. In normal times, he’d be a 12-team pickup.
Tim Hardaway (Drop): Hardaway is an easy drop in 12- and 14-team leagues due to the Mavericks’ upcoming schedule and his poor recent play. I’d think about it as well in 16-team leagues due to the schedule. Over the last two weeks, the gunner has not even been a top-225 player and has averaged a paltry 11.8 PPG on 36.8 FG%, 2.3 3PG, 3.4 RPG, 1.5 APG, and 0.4 SPG.
Warriors 116 Nuggets 107
Kent Bazemore: Bazemore is a nice short-term option with Oubre down and the Warriors having a very busy upcoming schedule. From Wednesday to Saturday, we will see Golden State three times. As long as Oubre is out, Bazemore should play major minutes and be a very nice source of swipes who can chip in low-end numbers in threes and rebounds. Over his last three, in 31.6 MPG, Bazemore has averaged 1.3 3PG, 5.0 RPG, and 1.3 SPG.
Kevon Looney: With James Wiseman down, Looney will play a fair amount against any team with size. On nights when small-ball is more feasible, Looney’s minutes will likely be stuck in the low-20s. Keep this mind before streaming him for his boards and low-end FG% impact. I would not bother holding Looney outside of the deepest of leagues. The still only 25-year-old looks cooked and is not producing interesting per-minute numbers in any category besides boards and FG%.
Facundo Campazzo (Pick Up in DL): Obviously, the big story of the night for the Nuggets is the Murray injury. I know everyone is going to rush to Morris, but it has actually been Facu who has been the better fantasy option lately. He’s assists and steals and not much else, but he’s proven that he can be a very good source of both when given the opportunity. In only 22.6 MPG, Campazzo has averaged 3.9 APG and 1.3 SPG over the last month. He’s likely looking at minutes in the mid-to-high 20s going forward, so if those per-minute rates hold, he could average close to five dimes and a steal and a half per game. I would add the point guard in 14-team leagues. In 12-team leagues, he’s more of a low-end option.
Monte Morris (Pick Up in DL): Morris has actually been behind Campazzo in the rotation since he returned from his quad injury six games ago. The Nugget has flashed in previous seasons, but I wouldn’t expect much from him down the stretch. Morris hasn’t been as productive on a per-minute basis as he has been in the past, and the Nuggets running more of their offense through Jokic is going to keep his ceiling very low. In 26.3 MPG, Morris has only been a top-180 player this year. Unless, he gets into the low-30s, which feels unlikely with Facu around, he’s just going to be a low-end 14-team league option and a weak standard league streamer. On the year, Morris is averaging a forgettable 10.4 PPG on 47.9 FG%, 1.1 3PG, 2.2 RPG, 3.3 APG, and 0.7 SPG.
Grizzlies 101 Bulls 90
Ja Morant: The Grizzlies schedule is going to keep Morant viable in many fantasy playoff matchups (no team plays more games than the Grizzlies from Week 17 to Week 20), but in certain matchups, he’s going to be droppable. Morant is a two-category player (18.9 PPG, 7.4 APG) who hurts you in the other seven categories (0.9 3PG, 3.5 RPG, 0.9 SPG, 0.2 BPG, 44.7 FG%, 73.9 FT%, 3.1 TOPG). If points or assists are not competitive in your matchup, Ja is going to be almost useless. If points are not competitive, then Morant is not even a top-300 player. If assists are not competitive, then Morant would have to play above his season averages to crack the top-325. If both categories are not competitive, then Morant is only going to provide you with top-500 numbers (only 520 players have played in the association this year).
Brandon Clarke: A nice game by Clarke, but not something that makes me view him as more than a streamer. The Canadian has not played more than 21 minutes in any of his last four games. He’s still a strong per-minute player, but with that little run, it’s hard to see him being more than a low-end asset in standard leagues, and low-end assets are droppable at this time of the year. Over his last three games, Clarke has averaged only 6.7 PPG on 40.9 FG%, 6.7 RPG, 0.7 SPG, and 0.7 BPG.
Tomas Satoransky: Sato’s level of play has tanked at the worst possible time. I’m still holding if my playoffs haven’t started since the Bulls have a monster playoff schedule and we know Sato can be a top-100 player when he’s playing well, but it is getting tough. If you are in the playoffs this week, and your matchup is close, it’s fine to drop him. Get that immediate production and then consider grabbing him again if his game picks up. Over his last four, the Bull has averaged an ugly 5.3 PPG on 39.1 FG%, 0.3 3PG, 1.0 RPG, 6.3 APG, and 0.8 SPG.
Daniel Theis (Pick Up in DL): Alright, now this is getting interesting. This was the third time in four games that Theis hit the 27 minute mark. If he’s going to be the second big going forward, then he’s likely going to be a grab in 14-team leagues and a nice streamer in shallower settings due to the Bulls’ excellent playoff schedule. Give Theis a look if you need big-man numbers. Over his last four, in 23.5 MPG, Theis has averaged 12.3 PPG on 60.6 FG% and 6.0 RPG. He hasn’t blocked a shot over that stretch, but he is averaging 1.0 BPG on the year.
Pelicans 117 Kings 110
Eric Bledsoe (Drop): With Zion and Ingram back, Bledsoe is fine to drop. The minutes should remain strong for the immediate future with NAW and Hart down, but minutes have not really been the issue with Bledsoe. Horrendous per-minute production has been the problem. Since Ingram came back three games ago, Bledsoe has averaged a hard-to-look-at 9.7 PPG, 1.0 3PG, 4.0 RPG, 4.0 APG, 1.0 SPG, and 2.7 TOPG while shooting 27.6 percent from the floor.
Steven Adams: Unless you are punting FT%, where he is a low-end standard league asset, Adams is a drop. The solid boards, steals, and FG% impact do not come close to outweighing the enormous FT% hit (43.0 FT% on 2.4 FTA) or the significant hits to your points (7.7 PPG), assists (1.9 APG), and threes (0.0 3PG). Over the last month, Adams has only been a borderline top-200 nine-category player and a borderline top-100 punt FT% asset. The center will be an especially problematic hold next week with the Pelicans only having three games on the schedule.
Richaun Holmes: Holmes left the game early with hamstring tightness. That is a scary diagnosis as hamstring injuries are easy to re-aggravate and teams tend to play it safe when their players pick one up. You can’t drop unless this is your final week of the season. Holmes has been a top-30 player this year. We just have to hope he either comes back soon or is hit with an IL tag immediately. With Holmes out, the Kings are likely going to go small more often. I wouldn’t be running to Whiteside. They clearly don’t like him, so only grab him if you have a move to waste in a week that doesn’t matter.
Moe Harkless: After playing minutes in the teens in his first seven games with the Kings, Harkless has broken the 30-minute mark in each of his last two games. I’m just watching for now, even in deep leagues, because moves are too valuable at the moment. If we see minutes in the 30s the next couple of games as well, then I’d considering adding in very deep leagues and streaming in shallower settings when you need steals. In the two games that he’s played more than 30 minutes in, Harkless has averaged 13.0 PPG, 1.5 3PG, 5.5 RPG, 2.0 SPG, and 1.0 BPG.
Knicks 111 Lakers 96
Elfird Payton: This big game screams fluke. Payton is only shooting 44.9 percent on the season and isn’t playing nearly this much when he’s not red hot from the floor. In his previous four games, the veteran did not crack the 22-minute mark even once. Payton has only been a top-275 player this year and has no value as a streamer. The steals haven’t been there this season (0.8 SPG) and his smaller role on offense has led to his dimes collapsing (3.4 APG). Over his last 15 games, Payton has only recorded more than four assists in a game once.
Reggie Bullock (Pick Up in DL): Bullock is more interesting than the Knicks’ bench scorers. He doesn’t get as much interest as Rose or Burks does, but he’s clearly the best fantasy option of the group at this point. Bullock has produce standard league-worthy numbers over the last two weeks and is a must-own in 14-team leagues. Over that 14 day stretch, the Knick has been a top-75 player and has averaged 12.8 PPG on 46.7 FG%, 3.3 3PG, and 1.3 SPG.
Markieff Morris (Pick Up): At this point, Morris is viable in 12-team leagues. The veteran has played extremely well over the last couple of weeks and has produced borderline top-100 numbers over that span. His value is being driven by his solid contributions in points (13.7 PPG), threes (2.1 3PG), rebounds (5.6 RPG), and FG% (52.7 FG%). Davis is still more than a week away, so Morris should still be usable in Week 17.
Montrezl Harrell: Harrell is just a streamer at this point. Even if we ignore the game where he was tossed early for getting into it with O.G. Anunoby, Harrell has only played more than 23 minutes in one of his last five games and his minutes have been in the teens twice over that stretch. The drop in playing time that is tied to the Drummond signing has led to Harrell only being a top-250 player over the last two weeks. If he is already on your roster, I would hold until next Monday and then drop. From now until then, the Lakers play four games. After a Monday night game against the Jazz, the Lakers will be off until Friday of Week 17.