(FREE) Mar. 8 Box Score Analysis (11 Games)
Thunder 105 Celtics 104
Chris Paul: The extra minutes and usage were due to SGA missing the game with a hip issue. If Paul blocked shots, his line would be perfect. Over the last two months, he’s been a top-15 player and has averaged a ridiculous 19.2 PPG on 51.4 FG%, 1.6 3PG, 4.7 RPG, 7.2 APG, and 1.6 SPG while connecting on 89.2 percent of his 3.9 FTA.
Luguentz Dort: A nice line from Dort who can be ignored outside of 30-team leagues. Over the last month, the rookie has averaged only 6.2 PPG on 40.5 FG%, 0.7 3PG, 2.5 RPG, 0.7 RPG, and 0.8 SPG.
Steven Adams: A quiet night from Adams on offense, but the defense was there as usual (1.5 SPG, 1.2 BPG over the last month). He’s a must-own player in shallow leagues and has been a top-60 nine-category player and a top-40 player in the punt FT% build over the last 30 days.
Nerlens Noel: Noel has slowed down quite a bit since the break and is droppable if you don’t need blocks. Over the last month, Noel has averaged only 5.9 PPG on 69.4 FG%, 3.8 RPG, 0.8 SPG, and 1.4 BPG. The Thunder’s playoff schedule makes him an even tougher hold. If your playoffs start next week, Noel has a 3/3/4 schedule.
Gordan Hayward: A big line and almost 38 minutes in his return from a knee injury. This gives me hope that he’ll play in both ends of the Celtics’ back-to-back set that starts on Thursday. Hayward continues to be an outstanding punt threes asset. He doesn’t have any value tied up in the category (1.6 3PG) and brings the points (17.1 PPG) and free throw percentage impact (84.1 FT% on 2.4 FTA) that the build needs to be on the lookout for.
Kemba Walker: Kemba is just a top-50 player. The young guns are taking over, and the veteran has only been a mid-round player over the last three months. I wouldn’t expect a major bounceback. His minutes are going to be stuck around 30 a night, and the Celtics will likely play it safe with their All-Star down the stretch. There’s a good chance that Walker sits out a game during the Celtics’ upcoming back-to-back set.
Daniel Theis (Hold): It looks like Robert Williams’ return isn’t going to have much of an impact on Theis’ playing time. Since Time Lord got healthy, Theis has seen minutes in the high-2os in three of the Celtics’ four games. The big man should be a mid-round player down the stretch and is a good bet to produce top-50 numbers in the punt threes (0.4 3PG) and punt steals (0.6 SPG) builds. He’s a must-own, even in very shallow leagues.
Nets 110 Bulls 107
Spencer Dinwiddie: The free throws are a fluke. Dinwiddie is a great slasher (7.0 FTA), but he rarely finishes with a connection rate like this. Despite the massive night, the Net is shooting only 74.3 percent from the line over the last two months. Dinwiddie is just a borderline top-120 asset due to his ugly numbers outside of the popcorn categories (3.4 RPG, 0.6 SPG, 0.3 BPG, 41.5 FG%, 77.4 FT%, 2.7 TOPG).
Joe Harris: Harris is just a two-category player and should be dropped during the Nets’ two-game Week 22. After that, he’ll be a solid pickup for teams in need of points and threes (14.7 PPG and 2.4 3PG over the last month), as the Nets follow up their quiet week with back-to-back four-game weeks.
DeAndre Jordan (Pick Up): Jordan is a must-own player in standard leagues now that he’s been promoted to the starting lineup in a move that is totally unrelated to Kenny Atkinson’s firing. In a 28 MPG role, Jordan would be a top-five source of rebounds (11.2 RPG over the last month in 25.3 MPG) and would likely average a double-double with a block (1.6 BP36) and top-end field goal percentage impact (66.8 FG%).
Jarrett Allen: Allen is no longer a must-hold in standard leagues, although like Harris, he’ll be a solid streamer after Week 22 due to the Nets’ schedule. The center has only been a top-200 player over the last 30 days in 21.3 MPG and has averaged only 9.1 PPG on 66.2 FG%, 0.0 3PG, 8.6 RPG, 1.1 APG, 0.2 SPG, and 0.8 BPG.
Shaq Harrison (Pick Up in DL): LaVine has already been ruled out of Tuesday’s game against the Cavaliers, so we should get at least one more big steals night out of Shaq. Since entering the starting lineup five games ago, Shaq has played 25.5 MPG and has averaged 2.6 SPG.
Wendell Carter Jr: If you’re in the playoffs, it’s fine to drop Carter. If you’re not, I’d give him the rest of the week to see how he does. The Bulls have four games this week, so he should be at least somewhat useful even if his minutes remain low. Since returning, Carter has averaged only 6.8 PPG, 6.6 RPG, 0.2 SPG, and 0.6 BPG.
Tomas Satoransky: Satoransky is fine to hold this week due to the Bulls’ four-game week, but I would be dropping him this coming Sunday due to the Bulls’ upcoming schedule. If your playoffs start on March 16th, the Bulls are the only team with a 3/3/3 schedule. Satoransky has only been a top-225 player this month and has averaged an ugly 9.4 PPG on 38.2 FG%, 0.6 3PG, 4.6 RPG, 6.4 APG, 0.9 SPG, and 2.3 TOPG.
Otto Porter Jr. (Pick Up): There we go. Porter is a must-own for the next week with the Bulls being one of only six teams with four games this week. He’ll be a drop in most leagues on Sunday as the Bulls’ three-game Week 22 includes a back-to-back set. Two-game weeks in the playoffs = automatic drop unless the player is a stud.
Cavaliers 132 Spurs 129 (OT)
Matthew Dellavedova: Delly should be an excellent assists streamer until Garland is healthy. The point guard has 25 assists over his last two starts and is producing 7.9 AP36 this season. He will be a drag everywhere else (7.7 PP36 on 34.3 FG%, 0.9 3P36, 3.3 RP36, 0.9 SP36).
Kevin Love: So much for the Achilles soreness. This is a 40-minute game on the second night of a back-to-back set. I would still be nervous if I owned Love. The Cavaliers are 5-4 since the Drummond trade and are messing with the lottery odds by playing their star veterans. It’s possible Love plays big minutes down the stretch, but I think it’s more likely that he starts to get some rest days.
Cedi Osman: Osman will be a strong points-and-threes streamer until Porter and/or Garland are back. Over his last four, Osman has averaged 16.5 PPG on 40.7 FG%, 3.5 3PG, and 1.5 SPG in 39.4 MPG.
Tristan Thompson: Thompson got poked in the eye and never returned. If you are in the playoffs, drop him. The big man is only a borderline standard league player when he’s healthy anyway due to his lack of contributions outside of the points and rebounds categories. As a reserve, Thompson is averaging 12.8 PPG, 7.8 RPG, 1.8 APG, 0.2 SPG, and 0.4 BPG.
Trey Lyles (Pick Up): The Spurs are done. They are in 12th in the West and are five games back of the Grizzlies. LMA should be back at some point, but he may not be rushed due to the team’s record. As long as Lyles is starting, he should be owned in standard leagues. Over his last six, Lyles has played 33.0 MPG and has averaged 14.0 PPG on 45.5 FG%, 2.2 3PG, 6.3 RPG, 1.3 SPG, and 0.8 BPG. He’ll be a player to watch for the rest of the season as an Aldridge shutdown will be on the table late.
Dejounte Murray: Murray strained his calf and is out indefinitely. Unless you have a bye next week, he’s a drop. He’ll likely be somewhat limited when he returns, so we won’t get a useful version of Murray for a while. In a limited role, he’d just be a steals streamer (1.7 SPG).
Derrick White (Pick Up): Murray’s injury makes White a must-grab. The point guard has been a top-85 player over the last couple of months in 24.2 MPG. He’s underwhelmed as a starter this year, but almost all of his starts came in December, so we can’t read too much into his disappointing numbers. Over the last 30 days, White has averaged 12.4 PPG on 45.6 FG%, 1.0 3PG, 3.2 APG, 0.9 SPG, and 0.8 BPG. He’s also been an excellent source of free throw percentage impact over that stretch. Over the last month, White has connected on 93.5 percent of his 4.2 FTA.
Pacers 112 Mavericks 109
Domantas Sabonis: Sabonis’ numbers haven’t budged since Oladipo returned. Over the last month, Sabonis has been a top-60 nine-category player and has averaged 18.7 PPG on 53.3 FG%, 11.6 RPG, 6.0 APG, 0.8 SPG, and 0.4 BPG. I would expect a small bump in his assist numbers while Brogdon is out. Sabonis produces 4.5 AP36 with Brogdon on the court and 5.8 AP36 when the point guard sits.
Aaron Holiday: Holiday hasn’t produced a useful line since January and is just a streamer with Brogdon out. He doesn’t have the same level of upside that he had earlier in the season because Oladipo drags down his touches. With Oladipo on the court, Holiday has a usage rate of only 12.0 percent.
Victor Oladipo: Oladipo is questionable for Tuesday night’s game against the Celtics and can be dropped if you have a playoff matchup this week. If Oladipo misses that game, he’ll play only one game this week. Despite the Pacers’ strong late-March schedule, Oladipo is not someone I would want to own down the stretch. He’ll sit during back-to-backs, likely miss some random non-B2B games, and is a long-shot to produce top-100 numbers. Over the last two weeks, the former All-Star has played a little better but has still only been a top-150 option. Oladipo has averaged 16.5 PPG on 44.2 FG%, 1.3 3PG, 4.3 RPG, 3.5 APG, 1.5 SPG, and 2.6 TOPG over that stretch.
Tim Hardaway Jr. (Pick Up): I’m not sure why Hardaway is owned in only 55 percent of Yahoo leagues. He’s not a borderline player. Over the last two months, the sharpshooter has been a top-90 player, and over the last month, he’s produced top-50 numbers (21.9 PPG on 48.9 FG%, 3.9 3PG, 3.9 RPG, 3.3 APG). Pick him up if he’s available and you need points and threes next week. In Week 22, the Mavericks play four times.
Kristaps Porzingis: This dud is likely due to an ankle injury that led to a pregame questionable tag. I wouldn’t worry too much about it as it wasn’t a knee issue. Porzingis can do first-round per-game things for the rest of the year, but he’s not quite that valuable as he’s going to sit out two games over the next two weeks. The big man has missed a game during each of the Mavericks’ last four back-to-back sets. The team’s final two back-to-back sets of the season come on March 10th/11th and March 16th/17th.
Maxi Kleber (Pick Up in DL): Kleber is a very strong short-term streamer and a must-own in 14-team leagues with Curry out at least one more game. In only 26.4 MPG, the big man has been a top-95 player over the last two months and has averaged 9.0 PPG on 44.6 FG%, 1.5 3PG, 5.4 RPG, and 1.9 BPG over that stretch.