(FREE) Feb. 10 Box Score Analysis (9 Games)
Jazz 123 Mavericks 119
Rudy Gobert: Gobert’s impact on the field goal percentage category has reached absurd levels. Over the last month, he’s connected on 74.4 percent of his 8.9 FGA. No other player has been in the same stratosphere in the category over that stretch. His insane field goal percentage impact, elite boards (14.7 RPG), and top-end blocks (2.1 BPG) have allowed him to be a top-six player in the punt FT% build over the last 30 days.
Joe Ingles (Drop): This should be the final straw for any standard league owners still holding onto Ingles. This should have been a big night with Conley getting a rest day. Instead, we got another extremely forgettable line from the Australian. Over the last two weeks, Ingles has averaged only 6.3 3PG on 38.1 percent shooting, 3.4 RPG, 5.9 APG, 0.9 SPG, and 0.1 BPG. In standard leagues, he’s just a high-end dimes streamer.
Jordan Clarkson (Pick Up in DL): Clarkson can be grabbed in standard leagues, but don’t go dropping anyone with clear top-100 potential for him. Once his shooting cools off, he’ll go back to being a late-round player. Clarkson has been a top-60 player over the last two weeks because he has been unconscious from the field. Over that stretch, the guard has shot an outstanding 54.7 percent from the floor and has averaged 21.9 PPG and 3.4 3PG. His contributions in the non-scoring categories have remained low during his hot streak (2.7 RPG, 2.0 APG, 0.6 SPG, 0.1 BPG over the last two weeks).
Tim Hardaway Jr: Luka is back on Wednesday, and the return of the superstar will banish Hardaway to the late rounds. Hardaway has been a top-100 player since Doncic went down, but only a top-150 player over the last two months. He’s viable in standard leagues but works better as a points and threes streamer (14.7 PPG, 2.7 3PG). The swingman produces nothing useful outside of those two categories (3.0 RPG, 1.9 APG, 0.6 SPG, 0.1 BPG) and comes with a material field goal percentage hit (43.1 FG%).
Dorian Finney-Smith: Like Hardaway, Finney-Smith will lose most of his standard league appeal once Doncic returns. The forward can provide his owners with useful numbers in the threes and rebounds categories (2.3 3PG, 6.3 RPG over the last two weeks), but he won’t have too many nights like last night when he puts up some flashy numbers in the defensive categories. Over the last month, Finney-Smith has averaged only 0.8 SPG and 0.6 BPG.
Jalen Brunson (Drop): Brunson is a drop in all leagues with Doncic back on Wednesday. As a reserve, Brunson is playing only 14.5 MPG and is averaging only 6.7 PPG, 1.4 3PG, and 2.5 APG.
Maxi Kleber: I would hold Kleber if you are punting assists or steals. In the punt assists build (1.0 APG over the last month), Kleber has been a top-80 player and in the punt steals build (0.2 SPG), he’s been a top-55 player. If you’re not punting one of those categories, he’s more of a borderline player. I am hesitant to call the Maverick a drop because it is very difficult to find 1.5 BPG (his average over the last month) without a free throw percentage (89.7 FT%) or threes (1.6 3PG) hit attached.
Nuggets 127 Spurs 120
Jamal Murray: Murray has been lights-out since returning from his ankle injury. Since coming back four games ago, Murray has averaged 28.3 PPG, 3.8 3PG, and 5.3 APG on 58.9 percent shooting. He’s a sell-high if you have a sucker in your league who struggles with the concept of sample size. Otherwise, hold tight and enjoy having a borderline top-50 player for the rest of the year. Murray tweaked his ankle but returned to the game and isn’t expected to miss any time.
Jerami Grant: I’m not dropping Grant in standard leagues until I see his minutes start to fall off. That hasn’t been the case yet. Since Millsap returned two games ago, Grant has averaged 29.9 MPG. He’s not a must-own if there’s a no-brainer pickup out there, but I’m not dropping him for a streamer unless I really need the extra games. In a 25 MPG role, Grant would only be a 16-team league player.
Paul Millsap (Pick Up): Millsap’s days as a 28+ MPG player are over, but the veteran can still do damage in 24 MPG. I expect him to get back into that range eventually. In 24.6 MPG this year, Millsap has been a top-85 player and has produced a well-rounded line. In 2019-2020, the 35-year-old has averaged 12.2 PPG on 47.7 percent shooting from the floor and 85.4 percent shooting from the line, 1.1 3PG, 6.0 RPG, 0.9 SPG, and 0.7 BPG.
Dejounte Murray: Murray may be the most annoying player to own in fantasy not named Mitchell Robinson. There will be peaks and valleys, and you have to Murray through all of it. He’s too useful when he’s on to drop. After a very bump January, Murray has produced borderline top-50 numbers over the last two weeks and has played an encouraging 27.7 MPG. Over that stretch, he’s averaged 10.6 PPG on 46.0 FG%, 0.7 3PG, 5.9 RPG, 4.4 APG, and 2.0 SPG. I’m sure he’ll be back in Popovich’s doghouse at some point…and then out of it…and then it back in it. It’s just how things go in San Antonio.
Lonnie Walker: Walker got the start since DeRozan was a late scratch with back spasms. Walker is not a pickup if DeMar has to miss more time, even in deeper leagues. The sophomore has not been a top-300 per-minute player this year and there is nothing in his per-minute numbers (43.9 FG%, 69.4 FT%, 15.3 PP36, 1.4 3P36, 5.3 RP36, 1.2 SP36, 0.5 BP36, 1.6 TOP36) that is all that interesting.
Derrick White: Just under 19 minutes in a game that DeRozan sat in is no bueno. White has only been a top-180 player over the past two weeks and isn’t a must-own in any league with fewer than 16 teams. In standard leagues, he’s just a streamer for those who need some upside in the blocks category (0.8 BPG) to go along with low-end assists (3.3 APG).
Hornets 87 Pistons 76
P.J. Washington (Drop): Washington has been useless for a while now. Over the last two months, the rookie is ranked outside of the top-200 in nine-category leagues. Over those 60 days, Washington has produced below-average numbers in every category except turnovers where he has only been average. I expect the minutes to continue to be high, but it probably won’t matter. Washington is just not very productive right now. Over this two month stretch, Washington has been ranked just inside of the top-350 on a per-minute basis. That means he’s been one of the least productive players in the entire league.
Miles Bridges (Pick Up): The other Bridges is the better pickup, but Miles isn’t doing too badly himself. Bridges has scored at least 16 points in each of his last six games and has averaged 20.3 PPG on 46.9 FG%, 2.3 3PG, 7.5 RPG, 1.0 SPG, and 0.7 BPG over that stretch. His strong play has been rewarded with extra minutes. During that stretch, the sophomore has played 35.6 MPG. He’s a pickup even in 10-team leagues.
Malik Monk (Pick Up in DL): Monk is looking like a 16-team pickup. In 14-team leagues, he’s still borderline. In anything shallower, he’s only a points streamer. Over the last two weeks, Monk has played 28.2 MPG and has averaged 14.0 PPG on 44.4 FG%, 1.7 3PG, and 4.0 APG. Those numbers have been good enough to place him inside of the top-180 over that span. His somewhat high turnover rate (2.4 TOP36), weak efficiency (43.6 FG%), and awful defensive numbers (0.8 SP36, 0.5 BP36) make an eventual move into the standard league conversation unlikely.
Bruce Brown (Pick Up in DL): Brown doesn’t have the upside he did earlier in the season now that Reggie Jackson is healthy, but he is playing enough to be worth a look in deeper leagues. Over his last six, Brown has played a whopping 36.1 MPG and has averaged 10.8 PPG, 0.7 3PG, 6.5 RPG, 4.3 APG, and 1.3 SPG. Rose returning will take away some minutes, but Brown can still be useful in 16-team leagues in a 28 MPG role.
Thon Maker (Pick Up in DL): Maker has looked good in two of three games since re-entering the starting lineup. Over those three games, he’s averaged 12.7 PPG, 1.0 3PG, 7.3 RPG, 0.7 SPG, and 1.7 BPG. I’m scooping him up in 14-team leagues. In 12-team leagues, he’s just on my watch and stream list for now. Maker is a much better flier if you are punting free throw percentage. If he continues to see significant run, Maker is going to be a serious drag on his owners’ chances in the category (65.3 FT%).
Christian Wood: The low minutes are a little worrisome. Morris had been out of the lineup in the Pistons’ first two games after the trade. Wood is an obvious hold, but we may not get the 30+ MPG that we were hoping for. If you can find someone to offer you a top-50 or top-60 player, I would probably make that move. Wood could outperform that, but he could also only end up being a top-100 player if Morris starts seeing 20+ MPG consistently.
Heat 113 Warriors 101
Duncan Robinson (Pick Up): This was an awesome night for Robinson owners. Almost 37 minutes in a game where the Heat were mostly healthy is a very promising sign. Robinson is just a points and threes guy, but he does have more value than the points and threes options on your wire because he scores his points relatively efficiently. It’s not easy to find 3.5 3PG accompanied by neutral field goal percentage impact (45.7 FG%). Robinson has been deadlier than ever from deep over the last month. In the Heat’s last 15 games, Robinson has hit a ridiculous 4.3 3PG.
Kendrick Nunn (Drop): 23 minutes and Herro didn’t even play. That is not a good sign. Nunn is a drop in 12-team leagues and is no longer a must-hold in 14-team leagues. There’s no upside here, and if he’s below 25 MPG going forward, his floor is extremely low. Despite playing 29.9 MPG over the last month, Nunn has only been a top-175 player in nine-category leagues.
Jae Crowder (Pick Up in DL): It looks like Crowder is going to be the main wing addition, at least in the regular season. He’s played more than Iguodala in both games since the trade. Crowder is not going to see minutes in the 30s when Herro is healthy, but he should play enough to maintain 14-team league value. Over the last two months, he’s been a borderline top-100 player in 27.7 MPG and has averaged 1.5 3PG, 6.4 RPG, 2.6 APG, and 1.2 SPG.
Andrew Wiggins: There are going to be a lot of nights like this until Curry is back. Wiggins isn’t good enough to survive as his team’s top option. When Karl-Anthony Towns went down, Wiggins went from being a mid-round player to a player ranked outside of the top-200. Until Curry is back, I would expect top-120 numbers. The swingman has been better this year, but his weak contributions in steals (0.8 SPG), free throw percentage (44.7 FG%), and turnovers (2.6 TOPG) leave no room for error in the scoring categories. On nights his shot is off — and it will be as long as he’s the lone major weapon on the Warriors — things will get ugly.
Damion Lee (Pick Up): We got two-way contract Lee last night. I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again. When Lee is on, he’s a very useful fantasy asset because his game is fantasy-friendly. His ability to positively impact the free throw percentage category is what makes him especially attractive. After last night’s 7-for-7 performance, the Warrior is now shooting 88.2 percent from the line this year. I doubt he will be very useful once Curry is back, but we’ll worry about that when it happens.
Marquese Chriss (Pick Up): Chriss needs to be owned in all leagues, and I think there’s a decent chance that he ends up as the Warriors’ primary center for the rest of the season. Looney hasn’t shown that he can stay healthy, and the Warriors are unlikely to push next season’s starting center in games that mean nothing. Since entering the starting lineup eight games ago, Chriss has been a top-30 player and has averaged 13.9 PPG on 62.5 FG%, 6.0 RPG, 1.0 SPG, and 1.9 BPG.
Ky Bowman: Bowman is just a short-term assists streamer who will have what little value he has crushed when Curry returns. In the two games he’s played since being called up, Bowman has managed only 4.5 PPG, 6.5 APG, and 0.0 SPG.
Nets 106 Pacers 105
Spencer Dinwiddie (Sell High): Back-to-back 21/6/11 games from Dinwiddie, although this one came with some crippling shooting numbers. I’m looking to sell high even with Kyrie out and his timeline unknown. Dinwiddie’s popcorn stats could bring back a mid-round player, which is a win, even if Irving were to miss additional time. Dinwiddie is badly overrated in fantasy circles because his best numbers come in the categories that fantasy players overvalue. Despite averaging 21.0 PPG, 1.9 3PG, and 6.5 APG, Dinwiddie has only been a top-150 player this year because he is a drag everywhere else (41.7 FG%, 77.7 FT%, 3.4 RPG, 0.7 SPG, 0.3 BPG, 2.8 TOPG).
Caris LeVert (Sell High): Sell high immediately. That three-game hot streak is not who LeVert is, and Kyrie returning will end any shot he has at being a standard league player. Despite three massive games in a row, LeVert is barely ranked inside of the top-250 this month. His game is just not made for fantasy. Even when he’s rolling, he’s a huge drain on your percentages (39.9 FG%, 70.7 FT%), doesn’t do much on the defensive end (0.8 SPG, 0.1 BPG), and hurts your chances in turnovers (2.6 TOPG).
DeAndre Jordan (Pick Up): Back-to-back 28 minute games from Jordan. I think you have to grab him here. The Nets are having a terrible season, and Atkinson might want to see if a change can kickstart the team. The Nets got the win against a tough Pacers team with this setup and only lost by one against the champs on Saturday. Jordan has been a top-100 player in only 21.2 MPG this year. If he could even get in the mid-20s, he’d be a mid-round player.
Domantas Sabonis: Sabonis’ usage rate is taking a hit when Oladipo is on the floor, but he’s still doing more than enough in the field goal percentage, assists, and rebounds categories to maintain top-60 value. Over his last seven games, Sabonis has averaged an excellent 19.9 PPG on 60.9 percent shooting from the field, 10.9 RPG, and 6.6 APG. Sabonis’ scoring numbers will drop as Oladipo starts to play more. With Oladipo on the court, Sabonis has had a usage rate of 18.1 percent. Without Oladipo on the court, Sabonis’ usage rate has been 23.0 percent this year.
Malcolm Brogdon: Things are not looking good. Brogdon has barely been a top-200 player since Oladipo returned, and his assist rate drops from 8.7 AP36 without Oladipo on the floor to 6.5 APG when Oladipo is on the court. The good news is that Brogdon’s usage rate has held steady with the All-Star in the lineup. The point guard’s usage rate is only 0.8 percent lower when he has to share the ball with Oladipo. I’m not buying low because Brogdon hasn’t been very useful since early in the season. Over the last two months, Brogdon has only been a top-225 player in nine-category leagues.
Victor Oladipo: Oladipo has struggled since he returned. In the six games that Oladipo has played this season, the Pacer has managed only 10.8 PPG on 29.5 FG%, 1.5 3PG, 1.8 RPG, 2.7 APG, and 0.7 SPG in only 24.4 MPG. It’s going to be a slow process, and he’s going to sit occasionally. I would be willing to move Oladipo for any mid-round player. This is not someone with early-round potential. Before going down last year, Oladipo was producing only top-55 numbers. His first-round finish in 2017-2018 was a fluke driven by a steal rate he has never sniffed at any other point in his career and a finishing rate at the rim that was well above his career norms.